Conditional and unconditional estimators of population size

Estimators for the population sizes of animal species are similar to Horvitz-Thompson estimators — they involve dividing counts of detected animals by the probabilities of detection. Knowing detection probabilities for different subpopulations allows one to estimate each sub-population size with such an estimator, and to add the results for an estimator of the total population. In the case where the proportions of animals belonging to the different sub-populations are also known, this paper shows that using those proportions to arrive at a common average detection probability will, when used in conjunction with the total number of animals detected, result in a better estimator. We provide two examples where the inferior estimator may seem sensible.     

Quantifying the human health benefits of curbing air pollution in Shanghai

Urban development in the mega-cities of Asia has caused detrimental effects on the human health of its inhabitants through air pollution. However, averting these health damages by investing in clean energy and industrial technologies and measures can be expensive. Many cities do not have the capital to make such investments or may prefer to invest that capital elsewhere. In this article, we examine the city of Shanghai, China, and perform an illustrative cost/benefit analysis of air pollution control. Between 1995 and 2020 we expect that Shanghai will continue to grow rapidly. Increased demands for energy will cause increased use of fossil fuels and increased emissions of air pollutants. In this work, we examine emissions of particles smaller than 10 microm in diameter (PM10), which have been associated with inhalation health effects. We hypothesize the establishment of a new technology strategy for coal-fired power generation after 2010 and a new industrial coal-use policy. The health benefits of pollution reduction are compared with the investment costs for the new strategies. The study shows that the benefit-to-cost ratio is in the range of 1-5 for the power-sector initiative and 2-15 for the industrial-sector initiative. Thus, there appear to be considerable net benefits for these strategies, which could be very large depending on the valuation of health effects in China today and in the future. This study therefore provides economic grounds for supporting investments in air pollution control in developing cities like Shanghai.     

A molecular fingerprint technique to detect pollution-related changes in river cyanobacterial diversity

Humans now have a strong influence on almost every major aquatic ecosystem, and our activities have dramatically altered the quality of receiving waters worldwide. Thus, there is a continuous need to develop and apply novel and effective technologies to detect, manage, and correct human-induced degradation of aquatic systems. In the present work, we evaluated the molecular approach using polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-temperature gradient gel electrophoresis (TGGE) to measure changes in cyanobacterial diversity along a pollution gradient in a river and compared it with that of using microscopic observations of field-fixed and cultured samples. The different 16S rDNA genes present in the cyanobacterial community of each sampling point of the river were separated by TGGE, giving a characteristic pattern of bands for each site. This pattern represents a "fingerprint" of the community, allowing direct comparisons of the different samples. The TGGE results revealed that the structure of the cyanobacterial community differed along the pollution gradient of the river. Microscopic and molecular approaches showed that cyanobacterial diversity decreased in a downstream direction. Similar results were obtained by the two methods, as indicated by the high correlation between them. We suggest PCR-TGGE could be a useful and rapidly applied technique for the routine analysis of changes in cyanobacterial diversity in response to pollution, which would allow us to monitor rivers in surveillance networks of watercourse quality.     

Decadal variability of floods in the northern foreland of the Tatra Mountains

Floods in the northern foreland of the Tatra Mountains considerably contribute to the total flood damage in Poland. Therefore, the question whether the magnitude and frequency of floods have changed in this region is of high interest. This study aims at investigating the inter-decadal variability of magnitude, frequency and seasonality of floods since the mid-twentieth century, to better understand regional changes. The analysis was accomplished in a multi-temporal approach whereby trends are fitted to every possible combination of start and end years in a record. Detected trends were explained by estimating correlations between the investigated flood parameters and different large-scale climate indices for the northern hemisphere, and by trends found in intense precipitation indices, number of days with snow cover, cyclonic circulation types, temperature and moisture conditions. Catchment and channel changes that occurred in the region over the past decades were also considered. Results show that rivers in the area exhibit considerable inter-decadal variability of flows. The magnitude and direction of short-term trends are heavily influenced by this inter-decadal variability; however, certain patterns are apparent. More extreme, although perhaps less frequent floods are now likely to occur, with a shift in the seasonality, decreasing flood magnitudes in winter and increasing during autumn and spring. The identification of the factors contributing to the occurrence of flood events and their potential changes is valuable to enhance the flood management in the region and to improve the resilience of the population in this mountainous area.     

Towards the selection of a produced water enrichment for biological gas hydrate inhibitors

Economic concerns associated with the recovery of non-conventional hydrocarbon reserves include unexpected ice as well as ice-like gas hydrate formation. Antifreeze proteins (AFPs) inhibit ice growth, and experiments with fish, plant, and insect AFPs have shown promise of effective gas hydrate inhibition in lab-scale experiments. If produced on an industrial scale, AFPs could provide a more environmentally friendly alternative to kinetic inhibitors, but a large-scale production of these AFPs is not currently feasible. We believe that these difficulties could be surmounted by the production of microbial AFPs, but to date, only a few such proteins have been identified and purified, and none of these are associated with hydrocarbon reserves. Here, we have used ice-affinity and freeze-thaw stress to select microbes derived from oil and gas formation water, or produced water, as a source of anaerobic microbial communities. Ice-affinity successfully incorporated anaerobic bacteria under aerobic conditions, and the mixed culture had ice-associating properties. Under these conditions, ice-affinity selection does not result in cultivatable isolates, but similar, cultivable microbes were obtained following freeze-thaw selection under anaerobic conditions. Since these mixed cultures inhibited the growth of ice crystals, they also have the potential to inhibit hydrate growth. Overall, freeze-thaw selection provides a promising first step towards the isolation of microbes capable of the inhibition of ice and gas hydrate growth, for possible application for energy exploration and recovery at high-latitudes and in-deep, cold waters.     

An integrated approach to assess broad-scale condition of coastal wetlands—the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Wetlands pilot survey

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated a two-year regional pilot survey in 2007 to develop, test, and validate tools and approaches to assess the condition of northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coastal wetlands. Sampling sites were selected from estuarine and palustrine wetland areas with herbaceous, forested, and shrub/scrub habitats delineated by the US Fish and Wildlife Service National Wetlands Inventory Status and Trends (NWI S&T) program and contained within northern GOM coastal watersheds. A multi-level, stepwise, iterative survey approach is being applied to multiple wetland classes at 100 probabilistically-selected coastal wetlands sites. Tier 1 provides information at the landscape scale about habitat inventory, land use, and environmental stressors associated with the watershed in which each wetland site is located. Tier 2, a rapid assessment conducted through a combination of office and field work, is based on best professional judgment and on-site evidence. Tier 3, an intensive site assessment, involves on-site collection of vegetation, water, and sediment samples to establish an integrated understanding of current wetland condition and validate methods and findings from Tiers 1 and 2. The results from this survey, along with other similar regional pilots from the Mid-Atlantic, West Coast, and Great Lakes Regions will contribute to a design and implementation approach for the National Wetlands Condition Assessment to be conducted by EPA’s Office of Water in 2011.