WORLD PETROLEUM RESOURCE ESTIMATES AND PRODUCTION FORECASTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR GOVERNMENT POLICY

Resource estimates alone will not give advance warning of encroaching production difficulties. An analysis of the general stages in the evolution of petroleum production and discovery and of industry statistics provides an estimate of when the stage characterised by increasing production in the market economy countries outside the United States and Canada will end. The analysis indicates that the year of maximum production will be in the 1990s. Economic growth aggravates the difficulties accompanying the production decline by advancing the date of peak production and by increasing the adjustments that must be made as oil production declines. Des prévisions de ressources à elles seules ne constituent pas des signes précurseurs de difficultés croissantes de production. Une analyse des étapes générales marquant l'evolution de la découverte et de la production du pétrole ainsi que des statistiques industrielles nous permet de prévoir l'époque à laquelle prendra fin la phase de production accrue dans les pays à économie de marché en dehors des Etats-Unis et du Canada. Cette analyse révèle que l'année de production maximale se situera dans les années 90. La croissance économique accentue les difficultés qui accompagnent le déclin de la production de pétrole en avancant la date à laquelle cell-ci atteindra son plafond et en augmentant le nombre d'ajustements qui s'avèrent nécessaires au fur et à mesure qu'elle baisse. Las evaluaciones de recursos no dan por si solas un aviso anticipado de las dificultades de producción. Un análisis de las etapas principales en la evolución del descubrimiento y producción de petróleo y de las estadísticas industriales provee un estimado de cuando va a terminar la etapa caracterizada por un crecimiento de producción en los paises de economias de mercado otros que Estados Unidos y Canada. El análisis indica que el año de producción máxima se hallará en la década del 90. El crecimiento económico agrava las dificultades debidas a la declinación de la producción al adelantar la fecha de máxima producción (pico) y al aumentar los ajustes que deven hacerse cuando la producción de petróleos disminuye.     

A note on the allocation of investment

It is shown by example that the results obtained by Gruver [11 concerning specialization of investment in either directly productive or pollution control capital arise because of an implicit linearity assumption on the underlying technology. Utilizing a strictly concave “eighth sphere” technology, results are obtained which imply joint investment in the two types of capital except in “rare” instances. The results indicate the need for incorporating more general technologies into the analysis of such problems.     

International competitive displacement from environmental control The quantitative gains from methodological refinement

This paper demonstrates empirically the gain from adopting more general equilibrium approaches in projecting the effects on domestic output and international trade of environmental controls. The suggested models include a partial equilibrium case where all industries are treated independently, an intermediate case incorporating effects in supplying industries, and general equilibrium formulations based on alternative macroeconomic conditions. U. S. data is used to evaluate these models. Under both pollutor pays and subsidy financing schemes, moving from the simplest case to the intermediate model results in quite different industry projections. Including macroeconomic factors appears particularly important in the classical setting.     

Counter-disaster training in developing countries

This paper discusses both the need for training within a wider context of community disaster preparedness and the major alternatives in methods of training. Emphasis is placed on the importance of compatibility between the resources within a given country and appropriate training programmes.     

Residents' preparedness and response to the Kalamazoo Tornado

A survey was conducted of individuals residing directly in the path of the tornado that hit Kalamazoo, Michigan, on 13th May 1980. The residents' tornado preparedness and response were examined in an effort to evaluate the city's emergency warning system. The system was adequate for people on the east side of the city and lacking for west side residents. Other factors pertaining to the storm event and human response were also evaluated.     

Water and soil pollution by Spent lubricating oils

This paper shows that spent lubricating oils from automobile engines generate carboxylic acids on environmental exposure. Samples of exposed oils, isolated from polluted river water and shore muds obtained from various locations, showed a direct proportionality between carboxylic acid content and time of exposure. Carboxylic acids were isolated by solvent extraction and studied by infrared spectroscopy.