A multi-disciplinary framework to monetize financial consequences arising from CCS projects and motivate effective financial responsibility

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) holds promise as a safe and effective approach for addressing climate change. However, concern about potential “liability” associated with CCS often is cited as a significant barrier to project deployment. The authors contend that, in this context, the term “liability” is poorly defined and conflates concerns about the uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of potential damages with the need for financial responsibility for long-term stewardship of certified closed sites. This paper offers an analytic framework drawn from damages estimation methodologies used in comparable contexts and incorporates risk-based probabilistic modeling to assist stakeholders in evaluating the potential environmental, human health and financial consequences of CCS projects. Application of the proposed framework will achieve four distinct objectives. First, the outputs of the analyses – monetized damages estimates for adverse impact scenarios coupled with expected loss calculations that reflect scenario probabilities and identify the statistical range of possible outcomes, including “most likely” loss estimates – will help interested stakeholders consider the viability of various investment and financial risk management strategies. Second, the results can be used to develop or negotiate financial assurance instruments for analyzed projects. Third, the results will inform the public policy debate regarding the degree and magnitude of potential financial consequences resulting over the long-term, beyond an established post-closure period. And, fourth, while the detailed conceptual framework, resulting models, impact calculations and valuation analyses may be applied on a site-by-site basis, the site-specific results could be pooled to assess regional and national implications of various risk mitigation and financial risk management policies.     

Evaluating Change in Rangeland Condition using Multitemporal AVHRR Data and Geographic Information System Analysis

Coarse-scale, multitemporal satellite image data were evaluated as a tool for detecting variation in vegetation productivity, as a potential indicator of change in rangeland condition in the western U.S. The conterminous U.S. Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) biweekly composite data set was employed using the six-year time series 1989–1994. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) image bands for the state of New Mexico were imported into a Geographic Information System (GIS) for analysis with other spatial data sets. Averaged NDVI was calculated for each year, and a series of regression analyses were performed using one year as the baseline. Residuals from the regression line indicated 14 significant areas of NDVI change: two with lower NDVI, and 11 with higher NDVI. Rangeland management changes, cross-country military training activities, and increases in irrigated cropland were among the identified causes of change.     

Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species’ climate‐change vulnerability

Climate‐change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species’ vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. We took a more comprehensive approach that incorporates exposure, sensitivity, and capacity to adapt to climate change. We applied our approach to anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and nonanadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), threatened salmonids within the Columbia River Basin (U.S.A.). We quantified exposure on the basis of scenarios of future stream temperature and flow, and we represented sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change with metrics of habitat quality, demographic condition, and genetic diversity. Both species were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change at low elevations and in their southernmost habitats. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the 2 species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multispecies conservation. Based on our results, we suggest that CCVAs be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework and be used to refine hypotheses, guide research, and compare plausible scenarios of species’ vulnerability to climate change.     

Biomechanics of Pediatric Cervical Spine: Compression,Flexion and Extension Responses

The objective of the present study was to develop three separate age-specific one, three, and six year old pediatric human cervical spine (C4-CS-C6) three-dimensional nonlinear finite element models and to quantify the biomechanical responses. The adult model was modified to create one, three, and six year old pediatric spines by incorporating the local geometrical and material characteristics of the developmental anatomy. The adult human cervical spine model was constructed from close-up computed tomography sections and sequential anatomic cryomicrotome sections, and validated with experimental data. The biomechanical responses were compared with the adult human cervical spine behavior under different loading modes using three approaches. Approach 1: using pure overall structural scaling (reduce size) of the adult model. Approach 2: using three separate age-specific pediatric models incorporating local component geometrical and material property changes. Approach 3: applying the overall structural scaling to the above three pediatric models. All pediatric structures were consistently more flexible than the adult spine under all loading modes. However, responses obtained using the pure overall structural scaling (Approach 1) increased the flexibilities slightly. In contrast, the inclusion of local component geometrical and material property changes to create the three individual pediatric cervical spine models (Approach 2) produced significantly higher changes in the flexibilities under all loading modes. When overall structural scaling effects were added to the three pediatric models (Approach 3), the increase was not considerably higher. White the one year old pediatric model was the most flexible followed by the three and six year old models in flexion and extension, the three year old pediatric model was the most flexible under compression followed by the six and one year old models. The differing biomechanical responses among different pediatric groups were ascribed to the individual developmental anatomical features. The present findings of significant increase in biomechanical response due to local geometry and material property changes emphasize the need to consider the developmental anatomical features in the pediatric structures to better predict their biomechanical behavior.     

Bayesian Methods in Conservation Biology

Abstract: Bayesian statistical inference provides an alternate way to analyze data that is likely to be more appropriate to conservation biology problems than traditional statistical methods. I contrast Bayesian techniques with traditional hypothesis-testing techniques using examples applicable to conservation. I use a trend analysis of two hypothetical populations to illustrate how easy it is to understand Bayesian results, which are given in terms of probability. Bayesian trend analysis indicated that the two populations had very different chances of declining at biologically important rates. For example, the probability that the first population was declining faster than 5% per year was 0.00, compared to a probability of 0.86 for the second population. The Bayesian results appropriately identified which population was of greater conservation concern. The Bayesian results contrast with those obtained with traditional hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing indicated that the first population, which the Bayesian analysis indicated had no chance of declining at > 5% per year, was declining significantly because it was declining at a slow rate and the abundance estimates were precise. Despite the high probability that the second population was experiencing a serious decline, hypothesis testing failed to reject the null hypothesis of no decline because the abundance estimates were imprecise. Finally, I extended the trend analysis to illustrate Bayesian decision theory, which allows for choice between more than two decisions and allows explicit specification of the consequences of various errors. The Bayesian results again differed from the traditional results: the decision analysis led to the conclusion that the first population was declining slowly and the second population was declining rapidly.     

Genetic caste determination in harvester ants: possible origin and maintenance by cyto-nuclear epistasis

While reproductive caste in eusocial insects is usually determined by environmental factors, in some populations of the harvester ants, Pogonomyrmex barbatus and P. rugosus, caste has been shown to have a strong genetic component. This system of genetic caste determination (GCD) is characterized by between-caste nuclear variation and high levels of mitochondrial haplotype variation between alternative maternal lineages. Two previous genetic models, involving a single nuclear caste-determining locus or interactions between two nuclear loci, respectively, have been proposed to explain the GCD system. We propose a new model based on interactions between nuclear and mitochondrial genes that can better explain the co-maintenance of distinct nuclear and mitochondrial lineages. In our model, females with coevolved cyto-nuclear gene complexes, derived from intra-lineage mating, develop into gynes, while females with disrupted cyto-nuclear complexes, derived from inter-lineage mating, develop into workers. Both haplodiploidy and inbreeding facilitate the buildup of such coevolved cyto-nuclear complexes within lineages. In addition, the opportunity for both intra-lineage and inter-lineage mating in polyandrous populations facilitates the accumulation of gyne-biasing genes. This model may also help to explain the evolution of workerless social, parasites. We discuss similarities of GCD and cytoplasmic male sterility in plants and how worker production of males would affect the stability of GCD. Finally, we propose experiments and observations that might help resolve the origin and maintenance of this unusual system of caste determination.     

Continuing atmospheric studies of chlorinated dibenzofurans and dioxins in New York State

CDFs and CDDs were detected in Niagara Falls air samples with total concentrations ranging from 0.07 to 53 pg/m³. The highest concentrations were found on days when the wind direction was from a nearby point source. Average CDF/CDD background concentrations were calculated.     

Butyltin concentrations in oysters from the Gulf of Mexico from 1989 to 1991

Oyster samples from 53 Gulf of Mexico coastal sites were collected and analyzed for butyltins during 1989, 1990, and 1991. The geometric-mean tributylin concentrations were 85, 30, and 43 ng Sn/g for 1989, 1990, and 1991, respectively. The tributyltin concentrations are best represented by a log-normal distribution. A decline in the butyltin concentrations at sites with relatively low butyltin concentrations for 1989 compared with 1990 and 1991 was observed, and, at relatively high butyltin concentrations (> 400 ng Sn/g), there was hardly any difference between 1989 and 1991, but lower concentrations were present in 1990. Continued monitoring is needed in order to determine if butyltin contamination of the coastal marine environment is decreasing in response to use limitations.     

Desertification Evaluated Using an Integrated Environmental Assessment Model

Desertification has been defined as land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities (United Nations, 1992). A technique for identifying and assessing areas at risk fordesertification in the arid, semi-arid, and subhumid regionsof the United States was developed by the Desert Research Institute and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), using selected environmental indicators integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS). Five indicators were selected: potential erosion, grazing pressure, climatic stress (expressed as a function of changesin the Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI]), change invegetation greenness (derived from the Normalized DifferenceVegetation Index [NDVI]), and weedy invasives as a percentof total plant cover. The data were integrated over aregional geographic setting using a GIS, which facilitateddata display, development and exploration of data relationships, including manipulation and simulation testing. By combining all five data layers, landscapes having a varying risk for land degradation were identified, providing a tool which could be used to improve landmanagement efficiency.