Serum PAPP-A measurements in first-trimester screening for Down syndrome

Serum PAPP-A measurements taken from 254 women in the first trimester are reported. Eleven chromosomal abnormalities were detected. The mean serum PAPP-A levels in cases of Down syndrome were 0.44 MOM at 9 weeks gestation, 0.15 MOM at 10 weeks, and 0.29 MOM at 11 weeks. The PAPP-A level at 10 weeks was below those of pregnancies which aborted spontaneously. At 11 weeks, the pregnancies with Down syndrome recorded the lowest PAPP-A levels at that gestation. On this small sample, offering chorionic villus sampling to women with singleton pregnancies and a PAPP-A level below 0.3 MOM (approximately 6.5 per cent of this at-risk group) would have detected all the Down syndrome fetuses at 10 weeks and 50 per cent at 11 weeks without selecting those cases destined to abort. This suggests that serum PAPP-A should continue to be investigated as a potential first-trimester screening test for Down syndrome.     

Cost-effective selection of sampling frequencies for regulatory water quality monitoring

A dynamic programming code was formulated for the purpose of assigning sampling frequencies throughout a regulatory water quality monitoring network in order to optimize the statistical performance of the network while operating within a fixed budgetary constraint. The statistical objective is to achieve the greatest possible station to station uniformity in confidence interval widths about annual geometric means of the measured water quality variables and to keep the average confidence width reasonably small. The objective function is the sum (over several selected variables and all stations) of the normalized positive deviations of the predicted confidence interval widths from preselected design confidence interval widths. The code was designed to account for the effects of deterministic seasonal variation and serial correlation of the water quality observations by incorporating the results of the time series analysis of historical quality data. The economic constraint ensures that the annual operating cost of the system, including direct costs of travel and laboratory analysis, will not exceed the allowable budget. As an example situation, the dynamic programming code was used to assign sampling frequencies to the nine stations in Illinois from which historical quality data had been obtained and analyzed. Using five design quality constituents and representative travel and laboratory costs, an “optimal” design was produced. The optimal design achieved a 10% improvement in uniformity (standard deviation) of confidence interval widths when compared to a more traditional design based on the same budget and using identical sampling frequencies at every station.     

ECONOMIC COSTS AND BENEFITS OF INSTREAM FLOW PROTECTION FOR ENDANGERED SPECIES IN AN INTERNATIONAL BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) restricts federal agencies from carrying out actions that jeopardize the continued existence of any endangered species. The U.S. Supreme Court has emphasized that the language of the ESA and its amendments permits few exceptions to the requirement to give endangered species the highest priority. This paper estimates economic costs associated with one measure for increasing instream flows to meet critical habitat requirements of the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow. Impacts are derived from an integrated regional model of the hydrology, economics, and institutions of the upper Rio Grande Basin in Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Mexico. One proposal for providing minimum streamflows to protect the silvery minnow from extinction would provide guaranteed year round streamflows of at least 50 cubic feet per second in the San Acacia reach of the upper Rio Grande. These added flows can be accomplished through reduced surface diversions by New Mexico water users in dry years when flows would otherwise be reduced below the critical level required by the minnow. Based on a 44‐year simulation of future inflows to the basin, we find that some agricultural users suffer damages, but New Mexico water users as a whole do not incur damages from a policy that reduces stream depletions sufficiently to provide habitat for the minnow. The same policy actually benefits downstream users, producing average annual benefits of over $200,000 per year for west Texas agriculture, and over $1 million for El Paso municipal and industrial water users, respectively. Economic impacts of instream flow deliveries for the minnow are highest in drought years.     

Utility terrestrial biodiversity issues

Results from a survey of power utility biologists indicate that terrestrial biodiversity is considered a major issue by only a few utilities; however, a majority believe it may be a future issue. Over half of the respondents indicated that their company is involved in some management for biodiversity, and nearly all feel that it should be a goal for resource management. Only a few utilities are funding biodiversity research, but a majority felt more research was needed. Generally, larger utilities with extensive land holdings had greater opportunities and resources for biodiversity management. Biodiversity will most likely be a concern with transmission rights-of-way construction and maintenance, endangered species issues and general land resource management, including mining reclamation and hydro relicensing commitments. Over half of the companies surveyed have established voluntary partnerships with management groups, and biodiversity is a goal in nearly all the joint projects. Endangered species management and protection, prevention of forest fragmentation, wetland protection, and habitat creation and protection are the most common partnerships involving utility companies. Common management practices and unique approaches are presented, along with details of the survey.     

INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN OPTIMIZATION: MODELING ECONOMIC AND HYDROLOGIC INTERDEPENDENCE1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents an integrated optimal control model that optimizes economic performance of reservoir management in watersheds in which there are significant economic and hydrologic interdependencies. The model is solved using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). Results show that application of this model to New Mexico's Rio Chama basin can increase total system benefits over historical benefits by exploiting complementarities between hydroelectricity production, instream recreation, and downstream lake recreation.     

The use of technology to address patterns of risk among teenage drivers

INTRODUCTION: The crash risk of teens is high, with fatal crash rates of teen drivers higher than any other age group. New approaches to reduce teen traffic fatalities are clearly needed. METHOD: A possible approach to reduce the incidence of teen driver crashes and fatalities is through the use of vehicle-based intelligent driver support systems. To be most effective, the system should address the behaviors associated with an overwhelming number of teen fatal crashes: speed, low seatbelt use, and alcohol impairment. In-vehicle technology also offers an opportunity to address the issue of inexperience through enforcement of certain Graduated Driver's License provisions. RESULTS: To fully understand the capability of such technologies, there should be a concerted effort to further their development, and human factors testing should take place to understand their effects on the driver. IMPACT: If successfully implemented, a Teen Driver Support System (TDSS), such as the one described here, could significantly decrease the number of teens killed in traffic crashes.     

Results of An Indoor Size Fractionated PM School Sampling Program in Libby, Montana

Libby, Montana is the only PM_2.5 nonattainment area in the western United States with the exceptions of parts of southern California. During January through March 2005, a particulate matter (PM) sampling program was conducted within Libby’s elementary and middle schools to establish baseline indoor PM concentrations before a wood stove change-out program is implemented over the next several years. As part of this program, indoor concentrations of PM mass, organic carbon (OC), and elemental carbon (EC) in five different size fractions (>2.5, 1.0–2.5, 0.5–1.0, 0.25–0.5, and <0.25 μm) were measured. Total measured PM mass concentrations were much higher inside the elementary school, with particle size fraction (>2.5, 0.5–1.0, 0.25–0.5, and <0.25 μm) concentrations between 2 and 5 times higher when compared to the middle school. The 1.0–2.5 μm fraction had the largest difference between the two sites, with elementary school concentrations nearly 10 times higher than the middle school values. The carbon component for the schools’ indoor PM was found to be predominantly composed of OC. Measured total OC and EC concentrations, as well as concentrations within individual size fractions, were an average of two to five times higher at the elementary school when compared to the middle school. For the ultrafine fraction (<0.25), EC concentrations were similar between each of the schools. Despite the differences in concentrations between the schools at the various fraction levels, the OC/EC ratio was determined to be similar.     

Biogeochemical consequences of a changing Arctic shelf seafloor ecosystem

Unprecedented and dramatic transformations are occurring in the Arctic in response to climate change, but academic, public, and political discourse has disproportionately focussed on the most visible and direct aspects of change, including sea ice melt, permafrost thaw, the fate of charismatic megafauna, and the expansion of fisheries. Such narratives disregard the importance of less visible and indirect processes and, in particular, miss the substantive contribution of the shelf seafloor in regulating nutrients and sequestering carbon. Here, we summarise the biogeochemical functioning of the Arctic shelf seafloor before considering how climate change and regional adjustments to human activities may alter its biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, including ecosystem function, carbon burial, or nutrient recycling. We highlight the importance of the Arctic benthic system in mitigating climatic and anthropogenic change and, with a focus on the Barents Sea, offer some observations and our perspectives on future management and policy.     

Fire Regimes and Tree Growth in Low Rainfall Jarrah Forest of South-west Australia

Regular fuel reduction burning is an important management strategy for reducing the scale and intensity of wildfires in south-west Australian native forests, but the long term effects of this on tree and stand growth are not well understood. Five fire treatments, including application of frequent and infrequent low intensity burns, and 25 years of fire exclusion, were applied to small (4 ha) experimental plots in a low rainfall mixed jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) and marri (Corymbia calophylla) forest to investigate the effects of these treatments on tree stem diameter growth, stand basal area increment and tree mortality. Mean tree stem growth measured over 20 years was lowest in the long unburnt treatment compared with the burn treatments, although surface soil nutrient levels were generally higher in the unburnt treatment, suggesting these sites may be moisture limited. There was no clear pattern of the effects of the burn treatments, including the number of fires and the interval between fires, on tree stem growth, stand basal area increment, crown health or mortality. These factors were strongly influenced by dominance condition, with dominant and co-dominant trees growing most and suppressed trees growing least and experiencing the highest mortality levels. There was no evidence of deteriorating tree or stand health that could be attributed to either regular low intensity burning or to a long period (25 years) of fire exclusion.