Modeling Streamflow and Water Quality Sensitivity to Climate Change and Urban Development in 20 U.S. Watersheds

Watershed modeling in 20 large, United States (U.S.) watersheds addresses gaps in our knowledge of streamflow, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), and sediment loading sensitivity to mid‐21st Century climate change and urban/residential development scenarios. Use of a consistent methodology facilitates regional scale comparisons across the study watersheds. Simulations use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Climate change scenarios are from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dynamically downscaled climate model output. Urban and residential development scenarios are from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios project. Simulations provide a plausible set of streamflow and water quality responses to mid‐21st Century climate change across the U.S. Simulated changes show a general pattern of decreasing streamflow volume in the central Rockies and Southwest, and increases on the East Coast and Northern Plains. Changes in pollutant loads follow a similar pattern but with increased variability. Ensemble mean results suggest that by the mid‐21st Century, statistically significant changes in streamflow and total suspended solids loads (relative to baseline conditions) are possible in roughly 30‐40% of study watersheds. These proportions increase to around 60% for total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads. Projected urban/residential development, and watershed responses to development, are small at the large spatial scale of modeling in this study.     

Aerosol composition as a function of haze and humidity levels in the Southwestern U.S.

The observed composition of visibility-reducing aerosols in the Grand Canyon region is summarized in climatological terms. Observations are from SCENES, a measurement program extending from 1984 to 1989. Results are presented as average mass balances stratified by various factors.Aerosols were found to exhibit substantial seasonal variation, but little systematic diurnal variation. Crustal material was a dynamic component, and peaked during springtime. Aerosol composition, but not total concentration, depended strongly on ambient relative humidity, with crustal material augmented at low humidities and sulfates augmented at high humidities. Total fine-particle concentrations correlated strongly with light scattering, as expected; however, little association between chemical composition and light scattering was observed.     

Darwin's Fox: A Distinct Endangered Species in a Vanishing Habitat

The temperate rain forest of Chiloé Island, Chile, is inhabited by an endemic fox ( Dusicyon fulvipes ) first described by Charles Darwin and now designated Darwin's fox. Despite morphological differences, Darwin's fox has been considered only an insular subspecies of the mainland chilla fox ( D. griseus ). This follows the assumption that the island population, with an estimated population of less than 500, has been separated from the mainland chilla fox for only about 15,000 years and may have received occasional immigrants from the mainland. Consequently, this island population has not been protected as endangered or bred in captivity. Recently, a population of Darwin's fox was discovered on the Chilean mainland 600 km north of Chiloé Island. This population exists in sympatry with chilla and possibly culpeo ( D. culpaeus ) foxes, which suggests that Darwin's fox may be reproductively isolated. To clarify the phylogenetic position of Darwin's fox, we analyzed 344 bp of mitochondrial DNA control-region sequence of the three species of Chilean foxes. Darwin's foxes from the island and mainland populations compose a monophyletic group distinct from the two other Chilean fox species. This indicates that Darwin's fox was probably an early inhabitant of central Chile, and that its present distribution on the mainland may be a relict of a once much wider distribution. Our results highlight the ability of molecular genetic techniques to uncover historical relationships masked by recent events, such as local extinctions. The "rediscovery" of Darwin's fox as a distinct species implies that greater significance should be given to the protection of this species and its unique habitat and to documenting the extent of its mainland distribution.     

TECHNOLOGY,INSTITUTIONS, AND SOCIAL GOALS1

ABSTRACT: The cries of pending water crises are usually cast in terms of water availability and/or water quality. Unfortunately, the real factors underlying a perceived crisis are often overlooked and the solutions prescribed are fax from optimal when measured in either economic or social terms. Today's technology outstrips its implementation, yesterday's solutions are imposed on a new breed of problems, and a static game is being played in a dynamic world. There is a need for the application of innovative and revolutionary tactics, for modernizing institutions, and for educating technologists and decision makers alike in the art of communicating their views and skills. This is the challenge. If it is met, some predicted crises will not materialize, and many others will be diminished in scale. An exciting opportunity exists to extend the boundaries of a new era in water management.     

Model of Japanese serow (Capricornis crispus) energetics predicts distribution on Honshu, Japan.

Understanding what determines a species' range is a central objective in ecology and evolutionary biology. It has important applications for predicting species distributions and how they might respond to environmental perturbations. This paper describes a mechanistic approach to predict past and present distribution of the Japanese serow (Capricornis crispus) on Honshu, Japan. We applied state-of-the-art microclimate and animal biophysical/behavioral models coupled with climate and vegetation data to estimate the distribution of potential range expansion under protection. We tested the model results against detailed empirical distribution data from the Ministry of the Environment for a five-prefecture area in central Honshu. We also applied the models to time-series land use/cover maps to investigate the historical transitions in habitat suitability during 1947-1999 in the Arai-Keinan region. This is the first time to our knowledge that mechanistic models have successfully predicted the landscape scale distribution of a mammal species in the absence of other animal species interactions, such as predators. In this case, animal energetics/behavior-plant interactions seem to be critical. Forest cover appears to be important in summer and winter for suitable serow habitats. The energetics model results indicate that the serow can overheat in some open environments in midday hours in summer. In winter, simulation results suggested that forest cover provides effective refuge to avoid increased metabolic demands of cold temperatures and strong winds. The model simulations suggested that land use/cover changes documented during 1947-1999 resulted in increased suitable serow habitat due to expanding forest cover from agricultural marginalization and ecological succession. The models provide a unique tool for estimating species' range expansion under protection or for selecting suitable reintroduction sites.     

A population study of the polychaete Capitella capitata at plymouth

A population of Capitella capitata (Fabricius) was sampled from January, 1973 to February, 1974. Size of the worms was measured and sexual maturity determined. There is an extensive breeding season, spawning occurring asynchronously throughout the year. Females containing ripe oocytes were almost always present, but most females at any one time contained immature oocytes. A high percentage of males contained active sperm. Oocytes are not released into the coelomic fluid until almost fully developed, and all are released at a single spawning. A large number of eggs are produced at each spawning and there is some evidence to suggest that larval development may be completely benthonic. Gametes first develop in 7 to 8 month old worms and take about 4 months to complete development. Analyses of the female population structure suggests that there are 3 breeding classes. The growth rate is estimated at 30 mm per year, and few worms are believed to survive longer than 2 years.     

Mature and old-growth riparian forests: structure, dynamics, and effects on Adirondack stream habitats.

Riparian forests regulate linkages between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, yet relationships among riparian forest development, stand structure, and stream habitats are poorly understood in many temperate deciduous forest systems. Our research has (1) described structural attributes associated with old-growth riparian forests and (2) assessed linkages between these characteristics and in-stream habitat structure. The 19 study sites were located along predominantly first- and second-order streams in northern hardwood-conifer forests in the Adirondack Mountains of New York (U.S.A.). Sites were classified as mature forest (6 sites), mature with remnant old-growth trees (3 sites), and old-growth (10 sites). Forest-structure attributes were measured over stream channels and at varying distances from each bank. In-stream habitat features such as large woody debris (LWD), pools, and boulders were measured in each stream reach. Forest structure was examined in relation to stand age using multivariate techniques, ANOVA, and linear regression. We investigated linkages between forest structure and stream characteristics using similar methods, preceded by information-theoretic modeling (AIC). Old-growth riparian forest structure is more complex than that found in mature forests and exhibits significantly greater accumulations of aboveground tree biomass, both living and dead. In-stream LWD volumes were significantly (alpha = 0.05) greater at old-growth sites (200 m3/ha) compared to mature sites (34 m3/ha) and were strongly related to the basal area of adjacent forests. In-stream large-log densities correlated strongly with debris-dam densities. AIC models that included large-log density, debris-dam density, boulder density, and bankfull width had the most support for predicting pool density. There were higher proportions of LWD-formed pools relative to boulder-formed pools at old-growth sites as compared to mature sites. Old-growth riparian forests provide in-stream habitat features that have not been widely recognized in eastern North America, representing a potential benefit from late-successional riparian forest management and conservation. Riparian management practices (including buffer delineation and restorative silvicultural approaches) that emphasize development and maintenance of late-successional characteristics are recommended where the associated in-stream effects are desired.     

Bird Use of Restoration and Reference Marshes Within the Barn Island Wildlife Management Area, Stonington, Connecticut, USA

/ Tidal marshes have been actively restored in Connecticut for nearly 20 years, but evaluations of these projects are typically based solely on observations of vegetation change. A formerly impounded valley marsh at the Barn Island Wildlife Management Area is a notable exception; previous research at this site has also included assessments of primary productivity, macroinvertebrates, and use by fishes. To determine the effects of marsh restoration on higher trophic levels, we monitored bird use at five sites within the Barn Island complex, including both restoration and reference marshes. Use by summer bird populations within fixed plots was monitored over two years at all sites. Our principal focus was Impoundment One, a previously impounded valley marsh reopened to full tidal exchange in 1982. This restoration site supported a greater abundance of wetland birds than our other sites, indicating that it is at least equivalent to reference marshes within the same system for this ecological function. Moreover, the species richness of birds and their frequency of occurrence at Impoundment One was greater than at 11 other estuarine marshes in southeastern Connecticut surveyed in a related investigation. A second marsh, under restoration for approximately ten years, appears to be developing in a similar fashion. These results complement previous studies on vegetation, macroinvertebrates, and fish use in this system to show that, over time, the reintroduction of tidal flooding can effectively restore important ecological functions to previously impounded tidal marshes.KEY WORDS: Estuarine; Tidal marsh; Wetland birds; Restoration