Investigating the sensitivity of household food security to agriculture-related shocks and the implication of social and natural capital

This paper examines the impact of agriculture-related shocks on consumption patterns of rural farming households using 3 years of data from South Africa. We make two key observations. First, agriculture-related shocks reduce households’ consumption. Second, natural resources and informal social capital somewhat counteract this reduction and sustain dietary requirements. In general, our findings suggest the promotion of informal social capital and natural resources as they are cheaper and more accessible coping strategies, in comparison to, for example, insurance, which remains unaffordable in most rural parts of sub-Saharan Africa. However, a lingering concern centres on the sustainability of these less conventional adaptation strategies.     

Comparison of statistical and theoretical habitat models for conservation planning: the benefit of ensemble prediction

Selection of a modeling approach is an important step in the conservation planning process, but little guidance is available. We compared two statistical and three theoretical habitat modeling approaches representing those currently being used for avian conservation planning at landscape and regional scales: hierarchical spatial count (HSC), classification and regression tree (CRT), habitat suitability index (HSI), forest structure database (FS), and habitat association database (HA). We focused our comparison on models for five priority forest-breeding species in the Central Hardwoods Bird Conservation Region: Acadian Flycatcher, Cerulean Warbler, Prairie Warbler, Red-headed Woodpecker, and Worm-eating Warbler. Lacking complete knowledge on the distribution and abundance of each species with which we could illuminate differences between approaches and provide strong grounds for recommending one approach over another, we used two approaches to compare models: rank correlations among model outputs and comparison of spatial correspondence. In general, rank correlations were significantly positive among models for each species, indicating general agreement among the models. Worm-eating Warblers had the highest pairwise correlations, all of which were significant (P < 0.05). Red-headed Woodpeckers had the lowest agreement among models, suggesting greater uncertainty in the relative conservation value of areas within the region. We assessed model uncertainty by mapping the spatial congruence in priorities (i.e., top ranks) resulting from each model for each species and calculating the coefficient of variation across model ranks for each location. This allowed identification of areas more likely to be good targets of conservation effort for a species, those areas that were least likely, and those in between where uncertainty is higher and thus conservation action incorporates more risk. Based on our results, models developed independently for the same purpose (conservation planning for a particular species in a particular geography) yield different answers and thus different conservation strategies. We assert that using only one habitat model (even if validated) as the foundation of a conservation plan is risky. Using multiple models (i.e., ensemble prediction) can reduce uncertainty and increase efficacy of conservation action when models corroborate one another and increase understanding of the system when they do not.     

Foundress polyphenism and the origins of eusociality in a facultatively eusocial sweat bee, Megalopta genalis (Halictidae)

The reproductive (queen) and nonreproductive (worker) castes of eusocial insect colonies are a classic example of insect polyphenism. A complementary polyphenism may also exist entirely among females in the reproductive caste. Although less studied, reproductive females may vary in behavior based on size-associated attributes leading to the production of daughter workers. We studied a bee with flexible social behavior, Megalopta genalis, to better understand the potential of this polyphenism to shape the social organization of bee colonies and, by extension, its role in the evolution of eusociality. Our experimental design reduced variation among nest foundresses in life history variables that could influence reproductive decisions, such as nesting quality and early adulthood experience. Within our study population, approximately one third of M. genalis nests were eusocial and the remaining nests never produced workers. Though they do not differ in survival, nest-founding females who do not attempt to produce workers (which we refer to as the solitary phenotype) are significantly smaller and become reproductive later than females who attempt to recruit workers (the social phenotype). Females with the social phenotype are more likely to produce additional broods but at a cost of having some of their first offspring become nonreproductive workers. The likelihood of eusocial organization varies with body size across females of the social phenotype. Thus, fitness consequences associated with size-based plasticity in foundress behavior has colony level effects on eusociality. The potential for size-based polyphenisms among reproductive females may be an important factor to consider in the evolutionary origins of eusociality.     

Stable isotopes identify an ontogenetic niche expansion in Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) from the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) occupy a key position in the Southern Ocean linking primary production to secondary consumers. While krill is a dominant grazer of phytoplankton, it also consumes heterotrophic prey and the relative importance of these two resources may differ with ontogeny. We used stable isotope analyses to evaluate body size-dependent trophic and habitat shifts in krill during the austral summer around the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica. We found evidence for an asymmetric, ontogenetic niche expansion with adults of both sexes having higher and more variable δ¹⁵N values but consistent δ¹³C values in comparison with juveniles. This result suggests that while phytoplankton likely remains an important life-long resource, krill in our study area expand their dietary niche to include higher trophic food sources as body size increases. The broader dietary niches observed in adults may help buffer them from recent climate-driven shifts in phytoplankton communities that negatively affect larval or juvenile krill that rely predominately on autotrophic resources.     

Flexible foraging strategies of gentoo penguins <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pygoscelis papua</Emphasis> over 5 years in the South Shetland Islands,Antarctica

Gentoo penguins Pygoscelis papua show considerable plasticity in their diet, diving, and foraging behaviors among colonies; we expected that they might exhibit similar variability over time, at a single site, since flexible foraging habits would provide a buffer against changes in prey availability. We examined interannual changes in the foraging strategies and diet of gentoo penguins in the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica, over 5 years with variable prey abundance. Antarctic krill Euphausia superba was the primary diet item, and fish the secondary, though the importance of these items varied among years. Diving behavior also varied over time: different dive depth distributions were observed among years. Nonetheless, chick-rearing success remained relatively constant, indicating that gentoo penguins were able to maintain chick provisioning by altering their foraging strategy among years. Variable abundance of krill in the region did not have observable impacts on the diet, foraging behaviors or chick-rearing success of gentoo penguins. We suggest that foraging plasticity may be one reason that gentoo penguin populations have remained stable in the region, while their congeners (P. antarctica and P. adeliae) with less flexible foraging strategies have declined.     

Responses of New Zealand forest birds to management of introduced mammals

Over the past 1000 years New Zealand has lost 40–50% of its bird species, and over half of these extinctions are attributable to predation by introduced mammals. Populations of many extant forest bird species continue to be depredated by mammals, especially rats, possums, and mustelids. The management history of New Zealand's forests over the past 50 years presents a unique opportunity because a varied program of mammalian predator control has created a replicated management experiment. We conducted a meta-analysis of population-level responses of forest birds to different levels of mammal control recorded across New Zealand. We collected data from 32 uniquely treated sites and 20 extant bird species representing a total of 247 population responses to 3 intensities of invasive mammal control (zero, low, and high). The treatments varied from eradication of invasive mammals via ground-based techniques to periodic suppression of mammals via aerially sown toxin. We modeled population-level responses of birds according to key life history attributes to determine the biological processes that influence species’ responses to management. Large endemic species, such as the Kaka (Nestor meridionalis) and New Zealand Pigeon (Hemiphaga novaeseelandiae), responded positively at the population level to mammal control in 61 of 77 cases for species ≥20 g compared with 31 positive responses from 78 cases for species <20 g. The Fantail (Rhipidura fuliginosa) and Grey Warbler (Gerygone igata), both shallow endemic species, and 4 nonendemic species (Blackbird [Turdus merula], Chaffinch [Fringilla coelebs], Dunnock [Prunella modularis], and Silvereye [Zosterops lateralis]) that arrived in New Zealand in the last 200 years tended to have slight negative or neutral responses to mammal control (59 of 77 cases). Our results suggest that large, deeply endemic forest birds, especially cavity nesters, are most at risk of further decline in the absence of mammal control and, conversely suggest that 6 species apparently tolerate the presence of invasive mammals and may be sensitive to competition from larger endemic birds.