OPTIMIZATION OF INTERMITTENT PUMPING SCHEDULES FOR AQUIFER REMEDIATION USING A GENETIC ALGORITHM1

ABSTRACT: Using a genetic algorithm (GA), optimal intermittent pumping schedules were established to simulate pump‐and‐treat remediation of a contaminated aquifer with known hydraulic limitations and a water miscible contaminant, located within the Duke Forest in Durham, North Carolina. The objectives of the optimization model were to minimize total costs, minimize health risks, and maximize the amount of contaminant removed from the aquifer. Stochastic ground water and contaminant transport models were required to provide estimates of contaminant concentrations at pumping wells. Optimization model simulations defined a tradeoff curve between the pumping cost and the amount of contaminant extracted from the aquifer. For this specific aquifer/miscible contaminant combination, the model simulations indicated that pump‐and‐treat remediation using intermittent pumping schedules for each pumping well produced significant reductions in predicted contaminant concentrations and associated health risks at a reasonable cost, after a remediation time of two years.     

Soil-atmosphere trace gas exchange in semiarid and arid zones

A review is presented on trace gas exchange of CH4, CO, N2O, and NOx arising from agriculture and natural sources in the world's semiarid and arid zones due to soil processes. These gases are important contributors to the radiative forcing and the chemistry of the atmosphere. Quantitative information is summarized from the available studies. Between 5 and 40% of the global soil-atmosphere exchange for these gases (CH4, CO, N2O, and NOx) may occur in semiarid and arid zones, but for each of these gases there are fewer than a dozen studies to support the individual estimates, and these are from a limited number of locations. Significant differences in the biophysical and chemical processes controlling these trace gas exchanges are identified through the comparison of semiarid and arid zones with the moist temperate or wet/dry savanna land regions. Therefore, there is a poorly quantified understanding of the contribution of these regions to the global trace gas cycles and atmospheric chemistry. More importantly, there is a poor understanding of the feedback between these exchanges, global change, and regional land use and air pollution issues. A set of research issues is presented.     

ASSESSING THE THREAT TO LIFE FROM DAM FAILURE1

ABSTRACT: To facilitate decisions regarding the need for modification of potentially unsafe dams, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation developed procedures for assessing the threat to human lives posed by the failure of individual dams. The procedures provide a conceptual model of the variables influencing the loss of life from dam failure and a method for predicting loss of life based on the size of the population at risk from failure and the amount of warning time available for that population. The prediction equations are based on an analysis of 24 dam failures and major flash floods occurring since 1950. Adjustments to the predictions to reflect special local conditions are also discussed.     

Effects of age and sex ratios on offspring recruitment rates in translocated black rhinoceros

Success of animal translocations depends on improving postrelease demographic rates toward establishment and subsequent growth of released populations. Short‐term metrics for evaluating translocation success and its drivers, like postrelease survival and fecundity, are unlikely to represent longer‐term outcomes. We used information theory to investigate 25 years of data on black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) translocations. We used the offspring recruitment rate (ORR) of translocated females—a metric integrating survival, fecundity, and offspring recruitment at sexual maturity—to detect determinants of success. Our unambiguously best model (AICω = 0.986) predicted that ORR increases with female age at release as a function of lower postrelease adult rhinoceros sex ratio (males:females). Delay of first postrelease reproduction and failure of some females to recruit any calves to sexual maturity most influenced the pattern of ORRs, and the leading causes of recruitment failure were postrelease female death (23% of all females) and failure to calve (24% of surviving females). We recommend translocating older females (≥6 years old) because they do not exhibit the reproductive delay and low ORRs of juveniles (<4 years old) or the higher rates of recruitment failure of juveniles and young adults (4–5.9 years old). Where translocation of juveniles is necessary, they should be released into female‐biased populations, where they have higher ORRs. Our study offers the unique advantage of a long‐term analysis across a large number of replicate populations—a science‐by‐management experiment as a proxy for a manipulative experiment, and a rare opportunity, particularly for a large, critically endangered taxon such as the black rhinoceros. Our findings differ from previous recommendations, reinforce the importance of long‐term data sets and comprehensive metrics of translocation success, and suggest attention be shifted from ecological to social constraints on population growth and species recovery, particularly when translocating species with polygynous breeding systems.     

Mineral development prospects of the Indochina area

Reform is under way in several nations within the Indochina area to stimulate economic growth and foreign investment. Though once forbidden, participation by foreign companies in mining exploration and development activities in Myanmar, Kampuchea, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam is now being solicited by the respective governments. This paper presents a preliminary evaluation of mineral and energy resources in the region and outlines possible development scenarios based on economic policies, financial and infrastructural constraints and industry interest. The investment climates for resource-related projects are assessed qualitatively by country. Clearly, the long-term development potential of mineral and energy resources in the Indochina area is large, and the potential gains outweigh any of today's problems.     

HYDROLOGICAL ASPECTS OF THE 1988 DROUGHT IN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Drought is evaluated in terms of the magnitude and duration of the 1988 spring and summer precipitation shortfall, and according to various components of the hydrologic budget, both surface and sub-surface. The response time of some of these components is investigated, relative to the time of precipitation. Individual water users perceived a beginning and ending of the drought at different times relative to their activities. Some statistics better describe some components of a drought to some users, and better answer some questions, than do others.     

Impact of engine lubricant properties on regulated gaseous emissions of 2000-2001 model-year gasoline vehicles

The impact of the sulfur (S) content in lubricating oil was evaluated for four ultra-low-emission vehicles and two super-ultra-low-emission vehicles, all with low mileage. The S content in the lube oils ranged from 0.01 to 0.76%, while the S content of the gasoline was fixed at 0.2 ppmw. Vehicles were configured with aged catalysts and tested over the Federal Test Procedure, at idle and at 50-mph cruise conditions. In all testing modes, variations in the S level of the lubricant did not significantly affect the regulated gas-phase tailpipe emissions. In addition to the regulated gas-phase emissions, a key element of the research was measuring the engine-out sulfur dioxide (SO2) in near-real-time. This research used a new methodology based on a differential optical absorption spectrometer (DOAS) to measure SO2 from the lubricants used in this study. With the DOAS, the contribution of SO2 emissions for the highest-S lubricant was found to range from less than 1 to 6 ppm on a gasoline S equivalent basis over the range of vehicles and test cycles used. The development and operation of the DOAS is discussed in this paper.     

Nitrogen trace gas emissions from a riparian ecosystem in southern Appalachia

In this paper, we present two years of seasonal nitric oxide (NO), ammonia (NH₃), and nitrous oxide (N₂O) trace gas fluxes measured in a recovering riparian zone with cattle excluded and adjacent riparian zone grazed by cattle. In the recovering riparian zone, average NO, NH₃, and N₂O fluxes were 5.8, 2.0, and 76.7 ng N m⁻² s⁻¹ (1.83, 0.63, and 24.19 kg N ha⁻¹ y⁻¹), respectively. Fluxes in the grazed riparian zone were larger, especially for NO and NH₃, measuring 9.1, 4.3, and 77.6 ng N m⁻² s⁻¹ (2.87, 1.35, and 24.50 kg N ha⁻¹ y⁻¹) for NO, NH₃, and N₂O, respectively. On average, N₂O accounted for greater than 85% of total trace gas flux in both the recovering and grazed riparian zones, though N₂O fluxes were highly variable temporally. In the recovering riparian zone, variability in seasonal average fluxes was explained by variability in soil nitrogen (N) concentrations. Nitric oxide flux was positively correlated with soil ammonium (NH₄⁺) concentration, while N₂O flux was positively correlated with soil nitrate (NO₃⁻) concentration. Ammonia flux was positively correlated with the ratio of NH₄⁺ to NO₃⁻. In the grazed riparian zone, average NH₃ and N₂O fluxes were not correlated with soil temperature, N concentrations, or moisture. This was likely due to high variability in soil microsite conditions related to cattle effects such as compaction and N input. Nitric oxide flux in the grazed riparian zone was positively correlated with soil temperature and NO₃⁻ concentration. Restoration appeared to significantly affect NO flux, which increased ≈600% during the first year following restoration and decreased during the second year to levels encountered at the onset of restoration. By comparing the ratio of total trace gas flux to soil N concentration, we show that the restored riparian zone is likely more efficient than the grazed riparian zone at diverting upper-soil N from the receiving stream to the atmosphere. This is likely due to the recovery of microbiological communities following changes in soil physical characteristics.