A Decision‐Analytic Approach to Managing Climate Risks: Application to the Upper Great Lakes1

Brown, Casey, William Werick, Wendy Leger, and David Fay, 2011. A Decision‐Analytic Approach to Managing Climate Risks: Application to the Upper Great Lakes. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):524‐534. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00552.x Abstract: In this paper, we present a risk analysis and management process designed for use in water resources planning and management under climate change. The process incorporates climate information through a method called decision‐scaling, whereby information related to climate projections is tailored for use in a decision‐analytic framework. The climate risk management process begins with the identification of vulnerabilities by asking stakeholders and resource experts what water conditions they could cope with and which would require substantial policy or investment shifts. The identified vulnerabilities and thresholds are formalized with a water resources systems model that relates changes in the physical climate conditions to the performance metrics corresponding to vulnerabilities. The irreducible uncertainty of climate change projections is addressed through a dynamic management plan embedded within an adaptive management process. Implementation of the process is described as applied in the ongoing International Upper Great Lakes Study.     

Comparison of several packings for CO2 chemical absorption in a packed column

CO₂ capture and storage has gained widespread attention as an option for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Chemical absorption and stripping of CO₂ with hot potassium carbonate (K₂CO₃) solutions has been used in the past, however potassium carbonate solutions have a low CO₂ absorption efficiency. Various techniques can be used to improve the absorption efficiency of this system with one option being the addition of promoters to the solvent and another option being an improvement in the mass transfer efficiency of the equipment. This study has focused on improving the efficiency of the packed column by replacing traditional packings with newer types of packing which have been shown to have enhanced mass transfer performance. Three different packings (Super Mini Rings (SMRs), Pall Rings and Mellapak) have been studied under atmospheric conditions in a laboratory scale column for CO₂ absorption using a 30 wt% K₂CO₃ solution. It was found that SMR packing resulted in a mass transfer coefficient approximately 20% and 30% higher than that of Mellapak and Pall Rings, respectively. Therefore, the height of packed column with SMR packing would be substantially lower than with Pall Rings or Mellapak. Meanwhile, the pressure drop using SMR was comparable to other packings while the gas flooding velocity was higher when the liquid load was above 25 kg m⁻² s⁻¹. Correlations for predicting flooding gas velocities and pressure drop were fitted to the experimental data, allowing the relevant parameters to be estimated for use in later design.     

Acute O 3 damage on first year coppice sprouts of aspen and maple sprouts in an open-air experiment

We studied the effect of high ozone (O(3)) concentration (110-490 nmol mol(-1)) on regenerating aspen (Populus tremuloides) and maple (Acer saccharum) trees at an open-air O(3) pollution experiment near Rhinelander WI USA. This study is the first of its kind to examine the effects of acute O(3) exposure on aspen and maple sprouts after the parent trees, which were grown under elevated O(3) and/or CO(2) for 12 years, were harvested. Acute O(3) damage was not uniform within the crowns of aspen suckers; it was most severe in the mature, fully expanded photosynthesizing leaves. Young expanding leaves showed no visible signs of acute O(3) damage contrary to expectations. Stomatal conductance played a primary role in the severity of acute O(3) damage as it directly controlled O(3) uptake. Maple sprouts, which had lower stomatal conductance, smaller stomatal aperture, higher stomatal density and larger leaf surface area, were tolerant of acute O(3) exposure. Moreover, elevated CO(2) did not ameliorate the adverse effects of acute O(3) dose on aspen and maple sprouts, in contrast to its ability to counteract the effects of long-term chronic exposure to lower O(3) levels.     

Evaluation of high volume particle sampling and sample handling protocols for ambient urban air mutagenicity determinations.

An investigation of high volume particle sampling and sample handling procedures was undertaken to evaluate variations of protocols being used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. These protocols are used in urban ambient air studies which collect ambient and source samples for subsequent mutagenicity analysis of the organic extracts of the aerosol fraction. Specific protocol issues investigated include: (a) duration of sampling period, (b) type of filter media used to collect air particles, (c) necessity for cryogenic field site storage and dry ice shipping of filter samples, and (d) sample handling at the receiving laboratory. Six PM10 Hi-Vol samplers were collocated at an urban site in downtown Durham, North Carolina and operated simultaneously to evaluate 12 h versus 24 h collection periods and filter media choices of glass fiber, Teflon impregnated glass fiber (TIGF), and quartz fiber. Filters from the samplers plus field blanks were collected during each of 25 sampling periods. TIGF filters from two samplers were immediately placed on dry ice in the field and transported directly to cryogenic storage. TIGF, quartz, and glass fiber filters from three samplers were transported at ambient and maintained at room temperature for three to six days prior to cryogenic storage. One TIGF sample, which was collected on a previously tared filter, was subjected to controlled environment equilibration (40 percent relative humidity, 22 degrees C) for 8 to 24 h and weighed prior to cryogenic storage. All filters were subsequently stored at -70 degrees C to -80 degrees C prior to a one-time extraction and Salmonella (Ames) mutagenicity bioassay of the entire sample set.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Dimethylsulfide and the algaPhaeocystis pouchetii in antarctic coastal waters

The concentrations of dimethylsulfide (DMS), dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) and dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) were measured in water collected from the Southern Ocean 10 km offshore from Davis Station, Antarctica, during the period May 1987 to January 1988, inclusive. During winter and spring, when the sea-ice was up to 1.9 m thick, DMS, DMSP and DMSO concentrations were low (0.2 to 1.5 nM), as were phytoplankton numbers. The maximum concentration of the sulfur compounds generally occurred in the top 10 m of the water column. DMS levels rose dramatically from early December onwards, reaching a peak of 290 nM at a depth of 15 m in January. This concentration is higher than reported elsewhere in the ocean. These high concentrations occurred at the same time as a bloom of the algaPhaeocystis pouchetii. A significant correlation occurred between DMS concentration and cell numbers of the alga. The ratio of DMS concentration to the number of cells of the alga was considerably higher than reported for blooms of this species elsewhere in the ocean. Up to 10% of the total global flux of DMS to the atmosphere may emanate from antarctic seas.     

The importance of considering multiple interacting species for conservation of species at risk

Conservation of species at risk of extinction is complex and multifaceted. However, mitigation strategies are typically narrow in scope, an artifact of conservation research that is often limited to a single species or stressor. Knowledge of an entire community of strongly interacting species would greatly enhance the comprehensiveness and effectiveness of conservation decisions. We investigated how camera trapping and spatial count models, an extension of spatial-recapture models for unmarked populations, can accomplish this through a case study of threatened boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). Population declines in caribou are precipitous and well documented, but recovery strategies focus heavily on control of wolves (Canis lupus) and pay less attention to other known predators and apparent competitors. Obtaining necessary data on multispecies densities has been difficult. We used spatial count models to concurrently estimate densities of caribou, their predators (wolf, black bear [Ursus americanus], and coyote [Canis latrans]), and alternative prey (moose [Alces alces] and white-tailed deer [Odocoileus virginianus]) from a camera-trap array in a highly disturbed landscape within northern Alberta's Oil Sands Region. Median densities were 0.22 caribous (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] = 0.08–0.65), 0.77 wolves (95% BCI = 0.26–2.67), 2.39 moose (95% BCI = 0.56–7.00), 2.64 coyotes (95% BCI = 0.45–6.68), and 3.63 black bears (95% BCI = 1.25–8.52) per 100 km². (The white-tailed deer model did not converge.) Although wolf densities were higher than densities recommended for caribou conservation, we suggest the markedly higher black bear and coyote densities may be of greater concern, especially if government wolf control further releases these species. Caribou conservation with a singular focus on wolf control may leave caribou vulnerable to other predators. We recommend a broader focus on the interacting species within a community when conserving species.     

Measuring dissolved organic carbon δ13C in freshwaters using total organic carbon cavity ring-down spectroscopy (TOC-CRDS)

This article reports the first application of coupled total organic carbon cavity ring-down spectroscopy (TOC-CRDS) for the analysis of the ??¹³C signature of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in freshwater samples. DOC represents a major, dynamic component of the global carbon cycle. The export of DOC from soils into rivers and groundwaters may be highly climate sensitive, and much of this export may occur in ephemeral fluxes. Thus, a robust, simple and inexpensive method for the continuous determination of DOC concentration and quality is urgently needed. We detail recent advances made in the analysis of the ??¹³C signature of DOC using a TOC-CRDS system optimised for the analysis of DOC with natural abundances greater than 2.5?mg?L^?1 with no sample pre-concentration required and sample volumes of 40?mL. Precision between replicated samples was comparable to conventional analysis by gas-source isotope ratio mass spectrometry, yielding ??¹³C values with standard deviations of?±?0.5??? for DOC concentrations higher than 1.5?mg?L^?1. The utility of this technique for the analysis of DOC in samples with a broad range of compositions and concentrations (2.5?C25?mg?L^?1 DOC) is demonstrated. Since DOC ??¹³C can be measured continuously, ca. 45?min per measurement, this method enables the online monitoring of DOC in river water, water intakes and treated waters, allowing changes in DOC fluxes to be monitored in real time.     

The relationship between trace metal contamination and stream meiofauna

The effect of chemical contaminants on freshwater meiofaunal communities is poorly understood and meiofauna rarely form part of environmental impact assessments in fresh waters. The community composition and diversity of meiofauna in streams of southwest England (Cornwall) representing a gradient in trace metal contamination were investigated. Multivariate and univariate statistical techniques were used to correlate community composition, diversity and environmental variables. Meiofaunal communities were very different at sites with high compared with low metal concentrations. Copper, either singly, or in combination with other environmental variables (aluminium, zinc or dissolved organic carbon), was the most important correlate with community composition. Not all meiofaunal species were adversely affected by metals, however, and some taxa, most notably certain cyclopoid copepods, were abundant at high metal concentrations. Moreover, sites with high metal concentrations were not significantly less diverse than sites of low metal concentrations. These data suggest that metal contamination significantly alters the composition of stream meiofaunal assemblages and highlight the importance of including meiofauna in impact studies of fresh waters.