THE OPPORTUNITY COST OF TIME AND AVERTING EXPENDITURES FOR SAFE DRINKING WATER1

ABSTRACT: A survey of individuals during a Giardia contamination incident provided data to calculate the cost of boiling, hauling, or purchasing water to avoid infection. Three different approaches to the valuation of time were used to assess the implications of the opportunity cost of time for the measurement of averting costs. Mean monthly household averting costs were $33.47 using family income to value time, $13.07 using the minimum wage to value time, and $5.60 using zero opportunity cost of time. Comparisons of the mean costs for different sources and household characteristics indicated the value of time from family income was too high and that the other methods of valuing time were superior.     

Improving watershed decisions using run-off and yield models at different simulation scales

Water managers face the daunting task of balancing limited water resources with over-subscribed water users among competing demands. They face the additional challenge of taking water planning decisions in an uncertain environment with limited and sometimes inaccurate observed and simulated hydrological data. Within South African watersheds, spatial parameterization data for hydrological models are now available at two different basin management resolutions (termed quaternary and quinary). Currently, water management decisions in the Crocodile River watershed are often made at a more coarse resolution, which may exclude crucial insights into the data. This research has the following aims (1) to explore whether model performance is improved by parameterization using a more detailed quinary-scale watershed data and (2) to explore whether quinary-scale models reduce uncertainty in allocation or restriction decisions to provide better informed water resources management and decision outcomes. This study used the Agricultural Catchments Research Unit (ACRU) agro-hydrological watershed model, to evaluate the effects of spatial discretization at the quaternary and quinary scales on watershed hydrological response and runoff within the Crocodile River basin. Model performance was evaluated using statistical comparisons of results using traditional goodness-of-fit measures such as the coefficient of efficiency (C _eff), root mean square of the error and the coefficient of determination (R ²) to compare simulated monthly flows and observed flows in six subcatchments. Traditional interpretation of these goodness-of-fit measures may be inadequate as they can be subjectively interpreted and easily influenced by the number of data points, outliers and model bias. This research utilizes a recently released model evaluation program (FITEVAL) which presents probability distributions of R ²and C _eff derived by bootstrapping, graphical representation of observed and simulated stream flows, incorporates statistical significance to detect the sufficiency of the R ²and C _eff and determines the presence of outliers and bias. While analyses indicate that the ACRU model performs marginally better when parameterized and calibrated at the quinary scale, the measurements at both scales show significant variability in predictions for both high and low flows that are endemic to southern African hydrology. The improved evaluation methods also allow for the analysis of data collection errors at monitoring sites and help determine the effect of data quality on adaptive water planning management decisions. Given that many water resource challenges are complex adaptive systems, these expanded performance analysis tools help provide deeper insights into matching watershed decision metrics and model-derived predictions.     

A review of postfeeding larval dispersal in blowflies: implications for forensic entomology

Immature and adult stages of blowflies are one of the primary invertebrate consumers of decomposing animal organic matter. When the food supply is consumed or when the larvae complete their development and migrate prior to the total removal of the larval substrate, they disperse to find adequate places for pupation, a process known as postfeeding larval dispersal. Several important ecological and physiological aspects of this process were studied since the work by Green (Ann Appl Biol 38:475, 1951) 50 years ago. An understanding of postfeeding larval dispersal can be useful for determining the postmortem interval (PMI) of human cadavers in legal medicine, particularly because this interval may be underestimated if older dispersing larvae or those that disperse longer, faster, and deeper are not taken into account. In this article, we review the process of postfeeding larval dispersal and its implications for legal medicine, in particular showing that aspects such as burial behavior and competition among species of blowflies can influence this process and consequently, the estimation of PMI.     

Morphological and molecular variation within an ocean basin in wedge-tailed shearwaters (Puffinus pacificus)

Micro-evolutionary processes that underpin genetic and morphological variation in highly mobile pelagic vertebrates are virtually unknown. Previous findings preferentially invoke vicariant isolation due to large-scale physical barriers such as continental landmasses, followed by genetic drift. However increasingly, evidence for divergence by non-random processes (e.g. selection, plasticity) is being presented. Wedge-tailed shearwaters are wide-ranging seabirds with breeding colonies located such that they experience a variety of environmental pressures and conditions. Previous work on this species has provided evidence of inter-colony divergence of adult morphology and foraging modes, as well as chick developmental patterns, suggesting that reinforcement among colonies is possible. In order to evaluate the micro-evolutionary processes driving this observed variation, our study compared patterns of gene flow with morphological and environmental variation among four colonies of wedge-tailed shearwater breeding within the Indo-Pacific Ocean basin. Estimates of gene flow differed according to the genetic marker used; most likely, this is a function of different mutation rates. Nuclear introns suggest that gene flow among wedge-tailed shearwater breeding colonies within the Indo-Pacific Ocean basin is substantial, however microsatellite markers imply that gene flow is reduced. In general, levels of genetic divergence were relatively low and did not correlate with geographic distance, morphological distance or environmental differences (sea-surface temperature and chlorophyll a concentration) among colonies. We suggest that genetic drift alone is unlikely to be the major source of morphological variation seen in this species. Instead, we propose that non-random processes (selection, plasticity) underpin morphological diversity seen in this and possibly other seabird species.     

Investigating the complex relationship between in situ Southern Ocean pCO_{2} and its ocean physics and biogeochemical drivers using a nonparametric regression approach

The objective in this paper is to investigate the use of a non-parametric approach to model the relationship between oceanic carbon dioxide \((pCO_2)\) and a range of ocean physics and biogeochemical in situ variables in the Southern Ocean, which influence its in situ variability. The need for this stems from the need to obtain reliable estimates of carbon dioxide concentrations in the Southern Ocean which plays an important role in the global carbon flux cycle. The main challenge involved in this objective is the spatial limitation and seasonal bias of the in situ data. Moreover, studies have also reported that the relationship between \(pCO_2\) and its drivers is complex. As such, in this paper, we use the non-parametric kernel regression approach since it is able to accurately capture the complex relationships between the response and predictor variables. In this analysis we use the in situ data obtained from the SANAE49 return leg journey between Antarctic to Cape Town. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time this data set has been subjected to such analysis. The model variants were developed on a training data subset, and the ‘goodness’ of the models were assessed on an “unseen” test data subset. Results indicate that the nonparametric approach consistently captures the relationship more accurately in terms of mean square error, root mean square error and mean absolute error, over a standard parametric approach (multiple linear regression). These results provide a platform for using the developed nonparametric regression model based on in situ measurements to predict \(pCO_2\) for a larger spatial region in the Southern Ocean based on satellite biogeochemical measurements of predictor variables, given that satellites do not measure \(pCO_2\) .     

Ammonia,methane, and nitrous oxide emission from pig slurry applied to a pasture in New Zealand

Much animal manure is being applied to small land areas close to animal confinements, resulting in environmental degradation. This paper reports a study on the emissions of ammonia (NH3), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) from a pasture during a 90-d period after pig slurry application (60 m3 ha-1) to the soil surface. The pig slurry contained 6.1 kg total N m-3, 4.2 kg of total ammoniacal nitrogen (TAN = NH3 + NH4) m-3, and 22.1 kg C m-3, and had a pH of 8.14. Ammonia was lost at a fast rate immediately after slurry application (4.7 kg N ha-1 h-1), when the pH and TAN concentration of the surface soil were high, but the loss rate declined quickly thereafter. Total NH3 losses from the treated pasture were 57 kg N ha-1 (22.5% of the TAN applied). Methane emission was highest (39.6 g C ha-1 h-1) immediately after application, as dissolved CH4 was released from the slurry. Emissions then continued at a low rate for approximately 7 d, presumably due to metabolism of volatile fatty acids in the anaerobic slurry-treated soil. The net CH4 emission was 1052 g C ha-1 (0.08% of the carbon applied). Nitrous oxide emission was low for the first 14 d after slurry application, then showed emission peaks of 7.5 g N ha-1 h-1 on Day 25 and 15.8 g N ha-1 h-1 on Day 67, and decline depending on rainfall and nitrate (NO3) concentrations. Emission finally reached background levels after approximately 90 d. Nitrous oxide emission was 7.6 kg N ha-1 (2.1% of the N applied). It is apparent that of the two major greenhouse gases measured in this study, N2O is by far the more important tropospheric pollutant.     

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM WATER HYACINTH (Eichhomia crassipes (Mart.) Solms) IN TEXAS RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: Water hyacinth, an attractive, floating aquatic plant, poses a substantial threat of unanticipated water loss from Texas reservoirs. A mature plant will lose about three times as much water through evapotranspiration as is lost from evaporation of an equivalent area of open water. The reservoirs of east and southeast Texas, which comprise the bulk of the state's existing and planned water storage capacity, seem likely to suffer a 20 percent average surface infestation of water hyacinth. A coverage that great will result in a yearly net loss of over 2,000,000 acre-feet of impounded water, based on present water development plans for the state. This would amount to nearly 20 percent of the anticipated yield from the reservoirs affected. An effective aquatic plant control program could head off the threat of this significant water loss.