Estimating rainforest biomass stocks and carbon loss from deforestation and degradation in Papua New Guinea 1972–2002: Best estimates,uncertainties and research needs

Reduction of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation is being considered a cost-effective way of mitigating the impacts of global warming. If such reductions are to be implemented, accurate and repeatable measurements of forest cover change and biomass will be required. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), which has one of the world's largest remaining areas of tropical forest, we used the best available data to estimate rainforest carbon stocks, and emissions from deforestation and degradation. We collated all available PNG field measurements which could be used to estimate carbon stocks in logged and unlogged forest. We extrapolated these plot-level estimates across the forested landscape using high-resolution forest mapping. We found the best estimate of forest carbon stocks contained in logged and unlogged forest in 2002 to be 4770 Mt (±13%). Our best estimate of gross forest carbon released through deforestation and degradation between 1972 and 2002 was 1178 Mt (±18%). By applying a long-term forest change model, we estimated that the carbon loss resulting from deforestation and degradation in 2001 was 53 Mt (±18%), rising from 24 Mt (±15%) in 1972. Forty-one percent of 2001 emissions resulted from logging, rising from 21% in 1972. Reducing emissions from logging is therefore a priority for PNG. The large uncertainty in our estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes is primarily due to the dearth of field measurements in both logged and unlogged forest, and the lack of PNG logging damage studies. Research priorities for PNG to increase the accuracy of forest carbon stock assessments are the collection of field measurements in unlogged forest and more spatially explicit logging damage studies.     

Climate change and disaster management

Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.     

Real-world in-use activity, fuel use, and emissions for nonroad construction vehicles: a case study for excavators

A study design was developed and demonstrated for deployment of a portable emission measurement system (PEMS) for excavators. Excavators are among the most commonly used vehicles in construction activities. The PEMS measured nitric oxide, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, carbon dioxide, and opacity-based particulate matter. Data collection, screening, processing, and analysis protocols were developed to assure data quality and to quantify variability in vehicle fuel consumption and emissions rates. The development of data collection procedures was based on securing the PEMS while avoiding disruption to normal vehicle operations. As a result of quality assurance, approximately 90% of the attempted measurements resulted in valid data. On the basis of field data collected for three excavators, an average of 50% of the total nitric oxide emissions was associated with 29% of the time of operation, during which the average engine speed and manifold absolute pressure were significantly higher than corresponding averages for all data. Mass per time emission rates during non-idle modes (i.e., moving and using bucket) were on average 7 times greater than for the idle mode. Differences in normalized average rates were influenced more by intercycle differences than intervehicle differences. This study demonstrates the importance of accounting for intercycle variability in real-world in-use emissions to develop more accurate emission inventories. The data collection and analysis methodology demonstrated here is recommended for application to more vehicles to better characterize real-world vehicle activity, fuel use, and emissions for nonroad construction equipment.     

Characterization of real-world activity, fuel use, and emissions for selected motor graders fueled with petroleum diesel and B20 biodiesel

Motor graders are a common type of nonroad vehicle used in many road construction and maintenance applications. In-use activity, fuel use, and emissions were measured for six selected motor graders using a portable emission measurement system. Each motor grader was tested with petroleum diesel and B20 biodiesel. Duty cycles were quantified in terms of the empirical cumulative distribution function of manifold absolute pressure (MAP), which is an indicator of engine load. The motor graders were operated under normal duty cycles for road maintenance and repair at various locations in Wake and Nash Counties in North Carolina. Approximately 3 hr of quality-assured, second-by-second data were obtained during each test. An empirical modal-based model of vehicle fuel use and emissions was developed, based on stratifying the data with respect to ranges of normalized MAP, to enable comparisons between duty cycles, motor graders, and fuels. Time-based emission factors were found to increase monotonically with MAP. Fuel-based emission factors were mainly sensitive to differences between idle and non-idle engine operation. Cycle average emission factors were estimated for road "resurfacing," "roading," and "shouldering" activities. On average, the use of B20 instead of petroleum diesel leads to a negligible decrease of 1.6% in nitric oxide emission rate, and decreases of 19-22% in emission rates of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter. Emission rates decrease significantly when comparing newer engine tier vehicles to older ones. Significant reductions in tailpipe emissions accrue especially from the use of B20 and adoption of newer vehicles.     

Insuring Southeast Asian commercial forests: Fire risk analysis and the potential for use of data in risk pricing and reduction of forest fire risk

The author uses his own data gleaned from over 10 years of commercial forestry insurance across the world to propose that despite a low intrinsic fire risk across most of Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia, commercial fire losses are unacceptably high, and could be reduced substantially within the current financial legal and political framework within which forestry companies operate. Opening with a statement about the dearth of forest fire loss data in the commercial sector, it is observed that the consequent inability of general insurers to estimate the rate of fire loss leads to very low insurance participation in forestry within Indonesia. A summary is then provided of the financial and environmental benefits of insurance participation in commercial forestry were this situation to be changed. A short discussion on risk perceptions is introduced to make the point that without reliable commercial forest fire loss data, risk perceptions of fire exposure in Southeast Asia by the financial sector, including insurers, is a barrier to risk transfer and investment. While real fire risk and perceived fire risk for Indonesia seem at present to be in agreement, the paper challenges that this should the case. Comparisons are made with different parts of the world with the knowledge that, in commercial terms, plantations in the low latitudes behave similarly everywhere in terms of fire causes, fire propagation factors, and characteristics of plantation or managed mixed forest fires. A review of the fire sizes within commercial forests is a good indicator of the efficiency of fire management strategies, and profiles from a high fire risk territory and Indonesia are compared. Using commercial and unidentified data the author then demonstrates that commercial growers in Indonesia have a high annual rate of forest fire loss and may also have a significant catastrophe fire exposure. This ‘cat’ exposure is far greater than for equivalent plantations in clearly higher fire risk environments. These conclusions are and should be discussed with forestry companies to change attitude and investment levels. Practical points for improved plantation fire management are made along with comments about the resources required. A parallel discussion then reviews fire risk assessment and management by the insurers to prevent their own ‘forest fire’ losses if they are to get further involved with the provision of Indonesian commercial forest risk transfer. The explanation of how insurers price risk within a portfolio helps identify the specific data needed for a proper risk management strategy to be developed.     

All-in-one whole exome sequencing strategy with simultaneous copy number variant,single nucleotide variant and absence-of-heterozygosity analysis in fetuses with structural ultrasound anomalies: A 1-year experience

Objective

We performed a 1-year evaluation of a novel strategy of simultaneously analyzing single nucleotide variants (SNVs), copy number variants (CNVs) and copy-number-neutral Absence-of-Heterozygosity from Whole Exome Sequencing (WES) data for prenatal diagnosis of fetuses with ultrasound (US) anomalies and a non-causative QF-PCR result.

Methods

After invasive diagnostics, whole exome parent-offspring trio-sequencing with exome-wide CNV analysis was performed in pregnancies with fetal US anomalies and a non-causative QF-PCR result (WES-CNV). On request, additional SNV-analysis, restricted to (the) requested gene panel(s) only (with the option of whole exome SNV-analysis afterward) was performed simultaneously (WES-CNV/SNV) or as rapid SNV-re-analysis, following a normal CNV analysis.

Results

In total, 415 prenatal samples were included. Following a non-causative QF-PCR result, WES-CNV analysis was initially requested for 74.3% of the chorionic villus (CV) samples and 45% of the amniotic fluid (AF) samples. In case WES-CNV analysis did not reveal a causative aberration, SNV-re-analysis was requested in 41.7% of the CV samples and 17.5% of the AF samples. All initial analyses could be finished within 2 weeks after sampling. For SNV-re-analysis during pregnancy, turn-around-times (TATs) varied between one and 8 days.

Conclusion

We show a highly efficient all-in-one WES-based strategy, with short TATs, and the option of rapid SNV-re-analysis after a normal CNV result.     

The importance of incorporating functional habitats into conservation planning for highly mobile species in dynamic systems

The distribution of mobile species in dynamic systems can vary greatly over time and space. Estimating their population size and geographic range can be problematic and affect the accuracy of conservation assessments. Scarce data on mobile species and the resources they need can also limit the type of analytical approaches available to derive such estimates. We quantified change in availability and use of key ecological resources required for breeding for a critically endangered nomadic habitat specialist, the Swift Parrot (Lathamus discolor). We compared estimates of occupied habitat derived from dynamic presence‐background (i.e., presence‐only data) climatic models with estimates derived from dynamic occupancy models that included a direct measure of food availability. We then compared estimates that incorporate fine‐resolution spatial data on the availability of key ecological resources (i.e., functional habitats) with more common approaches that focus on broader climatic suitability or vegetation cover (due to the absence of fine‐resolution data). The occupancy models produced significantly (P < 0.001) smaller (up to an order of magnitude) and more spatially discrete estimates of the total occupied area than climate‐based models. The spatial location and extent of the total area occupied with the occupancy models was highly variable between years (131 and 1498 km²). Estimates accounting for the area of functional habitats were significantly smaller (2–58% [SD 16]) than estimates based only on the total area occupied. An increase or decrease in the area of one functional habitat (foraging or nesting) did not necessarily correspond to an increase or decrease in the other. Thus, an increase in the extent of occupied area may not equate to improved habitat quality or function. We argue these patterns are typical for mobile resource specialists but often go unnoticed because of limited data over relevant spatial and temporal scales and lack of spatial data on the availability of key resources. Understanding changes in the relative availability of functional habitats is crucial to informing conservation planning and accurately assessing extinction risk for mobile resource specialists.     

Pollution,habitat loss,fishing, and climate change as critical threats to penguins

Cumulative human impacts across the world's oceans are considerable. We therefore examined a single model taxonomic group, the penguins (Spheniscidae), to explore how marine species and communities might be at risk of decline or extinction in the southern hemisphere. We sought to determine the most important threats to penguins and to suggest means to mitigate these threats. Our review has relevance to other taxonomic groups in the southern hemisphere and in northern latitudes, where human impacts are greater. Our review was based on an expert assessment and literature review of all 18 penguin species; 49 scientists contributed to the process. For each penguin species, we considered their range and distribution, population trends, and main anthropogenic threats over the past approximately 250 years. These threats were harvesting adults for oil, skin, and feathers and as bait for crab and rock lobster fisheries; harvesting of eggs; terrestrial habitat degradation; marine pollution; fisheries bycatch and resource competition; environmental variability and climate change; and toxic algal poisoning and disease. Habitat loss, pollution, and fishing, all factors humans can readily mitigate, remain the primary threats for penguin species. Their future resilience to further climate change impacts will almost certainly depend on addressing current threats to existing habitat degradation on land and at sea. We suggest protection of breeding habitat, linked to the designation of appropriately scaled marine reserves, including in the High Seas, will be critical for the future conservation of penguins. However, large‐scale conservation zones are not always practical or politically feasible and other ecosystem‐based management methods that include spatial zoning, bycatch mitigation, and robust harvest control must be developed to maintain marine biodiversity and ensure that ecosystem functioning is maintained across a variety of scales. Contaminación, Pérdida de Hábitat, Pesca y Cambio Climático como Amenazas Críticas para los Pingüinos