A Critique of Estimating Future Costs Using Most Likely Value

ASTM E2137 (Standard Guide for Estimating Monetary Costs and Liability for Environmental Matters, or E2137) is the guidance for developing estimates of future environmental costs. E2137 provides a hierarchy of cost estimation approaches, and expresses an explicit preference for the use of probabilistic cost analysis to develop expected values for environmental costs. Dr. Ram and his colleagues have published an article (Remediation Journal, Autumn 2013) which rejects the use of EV analysis, arguing that while “good in principle” it has little practical value because it is nearly impossible to develop supportable probabilities. The E2137 principles and processes have been used for more than a decade in the context of addressing future environmental costs, yet their view of E2137 renders the standard meaningless. We conclude that the deficiency is not in the ASTM standard, and that when properly constructed, probabilistic analyses can be used to develop expected values with supportable probabilities. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Developments to a landfill processes model following its application to two landfill modelling challenges

The landfill model LDAT simulates the transport and bio-chemical behaviour of the solid, liquid and gas phases of waste contained in a landfill. LDAT was applied to the LMC1 and LMC2 landfill modelling challenges held in 2009 and 2011. These were blind modelling challenges with the model acting in a predictive mode based on limited early time sections of full datasets. The LMC1 challenge dataset was from a 0.34 m deep 0.48 m diameter laboratory test cell, and the LMC2 dataset was from a 55 m × 80 m 8 m deep landfill test cell which formed part of the Dutch sustainable landfill research programme at Landgraaf in the Netherlands. The paper describes developments in LDAT arising directly from the experience of responding to the two challenges, and discusses the model input and output data obtained from a calibration using the full datasets.The developments include the modularisation of the model into a set of linked sub-models, the strategy for converting conventional waste characteristics into model input parameters, the identification of flexible degradation pathways to control the CO₂:CH₄ ratio, and the application of a chemical equilibrium model that includes a stage in which the solid waste components dissolve into the leachate.     

Settlement decisions in blue tits: difference in the use of social information according to age and individual success

Dispersers are expected to assess breeding habitat quality before settlement. Although cues reflecting habitat quality are well studied, social cues have not been as well evaluated. In this paper, we studied breeding habitat selection during 3 years in a natural population of blue tits, Cyanistes caeruleus, breeding in nest-boxes. Our aim was to investigate if this species used conspecific density and/or reproductive success of con- and heterospecifics (i.e., social cues) in settlement decisions. The patterns observed were consistent with the idea that juveniles, when dispersing from their natal patches, did not react to any of the cues that we tested. In contrast, breeders that dispersed seemed to respond to both conspecific mean patch reproductive success (PRS) and breeding density of the settlement patch in the year of dispersal, their response differing according to their own reproductive success. Indeed, failed breeders moved to areas with high PRS and low density relative to source patches, while successful breeders behaved the opposite. The comparison between juveniles and adults might be modulated by the limited time available to juveniles to gather information on PRS and density at the end of the dispersing year. Adults lacking these time constraints, however, seemed to rely on these conspecific cues although limited by their own quality. Additionally, breeders were more likely to be immigrants in patches with relatively low breeding success and density the previous year, suggesting that settlement is influenced by multiple cues, which may reveal information on different aspects of habitat and be available at different moments. Collectively, our results support the importance of social cues for blue tits’ settlement.     

Evaluating Conservation Program Success with Landsat and SWAT

In the United States, many state and federally funded conservation programs are required to quantify the water quality benefits resulting from their efforts. The objective of this research was to evaluate the impact of conservation practices subsidized by the Oklahoma Conservation Commission on phosphorus and sediment loads to Lake Wister. Conservation practices designed to increase vegetative cover in grazed pastures were evaluated using Landsat imagery and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Several vegetative indices were derived from Landsat imagery captured before and after the implementation of conservation practices. Collectively, these indicators provided an estimate of the change in vegetative soil cover attributable to conservation practices in treated fields. Field characteristics, management, and changes in vegetative cover were used in the SWAT model to simulate sediment and phosphorus losses before and after practice implementation. Overall, these conservation practices yielded a 1.9% improvement in vegetative cover and a predicted sediment load reduction of 3.5%. Changes in phosphorus load ranged from a 1.0% improvement to a 3.5% increase, depending upon initial vegetative conditions. The use of fertilizers containing phosphorus as a conservation practice in low-productivity pastures was predicted by SWAT to increase net phosphorus losses despite any improvement in vegetative cover. This combination of vegetative cover analysis and hydrologic simulation was a useful tool for evaluating the effects of conservation practices at the basin scale and may provide guidance for the selection of conservation measures subsidized in future conservation programs.     

Reducing phosphorus flux from organic soils in surface flow treatment wetlands

Treatment wetlands have a finite period of effective nutrient removal after which treatment efficiency declines. This is due to the accumulation of organic matter which decreases the capacity and hydraulic retention time of the wetland. We investigated four potential solutions to improve the soluble reactive P (SRP) removal of a municipal wastewater treatment wetland soil including; dry down, surface additions of alum or calcium carbonate and physical removal of the accreted organic soil under both aerobic and anaerobic water column conditions. The flux of SRP from the soil to the water column under aerobic conditions was higher for the continuously flooded controls (1.1 ± 0.4 mg P m⁻² d⁻¹), dry down (1.5 ± 0.9 mg P m⁻² d⁻¹) and CaCO₃ (0.8 ± 0.7 mg P m⁻² d⁻¹) treatments while the soil removal and alum treatments were significantly lower at 0.02 ± 0.10 and −0.07 ± 0.02 mg P m⁻² d⁻¹, respectively. These results demonstrate that the two most effective management strategies at sequestering SRP were organic soil removal and alum additions. There are difficulties and costs associated with removal and disposal of soils from a treatment wetland. Therefore our findings suggest that alum addition may be the most cost effective and efficient means of increasing the sequestering of P in aging treatment wetlands experiencing reduced P removal rates. However, more research is needed to determine the longer term effects of alum buildup in the organic soil on the wetland biota, in particular, on the macrophytes and invertebrates. Since alum effectiveness is time limited, a longer term solution to P flux may favor the organic soil removal.     

The dynamics of arsenic in four paddy fields in the Bengal delta

Irrigation with arsenic contaminated groundwater in the Bengal Delta may lead to As accumulation in the soil and rice grain. The dynamics of As concentration and speciation in paddy fields during dry season (boro) rice cultivation were investigated at 4 sites in Bangladesh and West Bengal, India. Three sites which were irrigated with high As groundwater had elevated As concentrations in the soils, showing a significant gradient from the irrigation inlet across the field. Arsenic concentration and speciation in soil pore water varied temporally and spatially; higher As concentrations were associated with an increasing percentage of arsenite, indicating a reductive mobilization. Concentrations of As in rice grain varied by 2-7 fold within individual fields and were poorly related with the soil As concentration. A field site employing alternating flooded-dry irrigation produced the lowest range of grain As concentration, suggesting a lower soil As availability caused by periodic aerobic conditions.     

A distributed-delay model to predict ageing and survival rates of adults of Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens) (Coleoptera: Laemophloeidae) in granaries filled with wheat

A time-varying distributed-delay model simulating effects of multifactors was developed. Prediction of the ageing rate and survival distribution of adults of the rusty grain beetle, Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens) (Coleoptera: Laemophloeidae) in various environments found in wheat-filled granaries was conducted as an example to illustrate the application of this developed model. Published adult mortalities, determined at different temperatures, relative humidities, and food sources, were directly used to find the average ageing rate and family of cumulative function of adult mortality. The developed model could predict the adult survival rate at constant or transient temperatures with different relative humidities. This model could also simulate the effect of adult acclimation to their environment when they experience temperature and moisture fluctuations inside granaries. To validate the developed model, the simulation results were compared with available experimental data from the literature. There was no difference between predicted and measured mortalities in two granaries in which the mortalities were determined in a 4-month experiment.     

A comparison of spatial learning and memory capabilities in intertidal gobies

For the majority of animals, the ability to orient in familiar locations is a fundamental part of life, and spatial memory allows individuals to remember key locations such as food patches, shelter, mating sites or areas regularly occupied by predators. This study determined if gobies collected from rocky platforms and sandy beaches differ in their ability to learn and memorise the locations of tide pools in a simulated rocky intertidal zone. Intertidal rock pool gobies show acute homing abilities and, therefore, should be expected to display superior learning and memory capabilities. In contrast, it is unlikely that natural selection would favour similar learning skills in sandy shore fishes because they simply shift back and forth with the tides. The learning abilities of gobies were tested using small replica rock platforms, containing four tide pools that retained varying depths of water at simulated low tide. Gobies were categorised as having learnt the task if they were able to consistently locate the tide pool that retained the most water at simulated low tide as the pool with the most favourable conditions. Rock pool species were able to locate the deepest pool to wait out low tide for ~95 % of the trials, while species from sandy shores were found in the deepest pool ~10 % of trials. Despite repeated stranding, sandy shore fish continued to follow the tide out. We propose that rock pool species memorised the location of rock pools during simulated high tide enabling them to relocate the best refuge for low tide.     

Mating effort and space use of an alpine ungulate during the rut

In ungulates, the rut generally leads to increased intra and interpopulation movements for males. Because movements induce energetic costs and missed feeding opportunities, they could be an indication of male mating effort. We studied space use of 44 male mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) from three neighboring subpopulations in southeast Alaska, during the rut from 2005 to 2008. Using mixed models and an information theoretic approach with AIC, we analyzed the relationships between individual traits of males and their space use. We found no indication of breeding migration between subpopulations. Distances between individual seasonal ranges were not related to any individual trait. Daily movements, home range sizes, and total distance traveled during the rut did not vary with mass or age of individuals. As such, effects of individual traits on male space use during the rut appear weak and observed space use patterns do not support any of the main mating effort hypotheses.