An integrated decision-support process for adaptation planning: climate change as impetus for scenario planning in an agricultural region of Canada

The amount of information required to adapt to climate change is vast: downscaled climate projections, information on environmental impact, sectoral performance, external drivers, regional strategies, policies and practices. It can be argued that most of this information is accessible at the community/regional level, and thus, the important challenges to adaptation are not information gaps, but constraints created by fragmented planning decisions and a sector-by-sector basis for financial and human resource allocations. To strategically address this through adaptation planning, we developed and tested a place-based decision-making framework that creates an integrated platform for considering regional and global sectoral drivers in Eastern Ontario, Canada. Using available socioeconomic and biophysical information from regional authorities, alternative future scenarios were used to describe the range of socioeconomic futures and their vulnerabilities to climate change. We found that: (1) integration of diverse sets of available data (rather than narrowly focused sectoral assessments) helped identify shared common objectives (maximizing the long-term environmental, economic, social well-being within the region), (2) a high degree of congruence existed as the key drivers of change, irrespective of sector, (3) exploring the future scenarios highlighted shared regional priorities and helped identify adaptation priorities requiring more integrated regional planning.     

Development of Sediment and Nutrient Export Coefficients for U.S. Ecoregions

Water quality impairment due to excessive nutrients and sediment is a major problem in the United States (U.S.). An important step in the mitigation of impairment in any given water body is determination of pollutant sources and amount. The sheer number of impaired waters and limited resources makes simplistic load estimation methods such as export coefficient (EC) methods attractive. Unfortunately ECs are typically based on small watershed monitoring data, which are very limited and/or often based on data collected from distant watersheds with drastically different conditions. In this research, we seek to improve the accuracy of these nutrient export estimation methods by developing a national database of localized EC for each ecoregion in the U.S. A stochastic sampling methodology loosely based on the Monte‐Carlo technique was used to construct a database of 45 million Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulations. These simulations consider a variety of climate, topography, soils, weather, land use, management, and conservation implementation conditions. SWAT model simulations were successfully validated with edge‐of‐field monitoring data. Simulated nutrient ECs compared favorably with previously published studies. These ECs may be used to rapidly estimate nutrient loading for any small catchment in the U.S. provided the location, area, and land‐use distribution are known.     

Possible chemical causes of skeletal deformities in grey heron nestlings (Ardea cinerea) in North Nottinghamshire, UK

Dead and deformed grey heron (Ardea cinerea) chicks were reported at a large heronry in North Nottinghamshire, UK between 1996 (when systematic visits to the heronry started) and 2002. Many of the birds died for no obvious reason but deformities in others included multiple fractures of the tarsus and tibia and metacarpal bones (angel wings). This study aimed to investigate possible chemical causes of these deformities. Analysis of eggs and nestling tissue for a range of metals showed no levels of concern and no significant differences between unaffected and deformed birds. However, the levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) detected in affected heron nestlings in 2002 and in eggs taken from nests in 2003 were sufficiently high to suggest that this may be the underlying cause of the deformities, possibly due to effects on deposition of calcium in bone. Further work is underway to identify where the parent birds of the affected nestlings are feeding and identify the possible source of the pollution.     

Comparisons between the diets of four abundant species of elasmobranchs in a subtropical embayment: implications for resource partitioning

The diets of one ray species (Rhinobatus typus) and three shark species (Carcharhinus cautus, Negaprion acutidens, Rhizoprionodon acutus) undergo size-related changes and differ among these species in the nearshore waters of a large subtropical embayment (Shark Bay) in which these elasmobranchs are abundant, thereby reducing the potential for competition for food within and among these four species. R. typus fed almost exclusively on penaeid prawns and portunid crabs, which is reflected in its narrow dietary breadth, whereas different species of teleosts constituted a major component of the diets of each size class of the three shark species. The prey consumed by the three shark species was diverse, with representatives of 15 teleost families being consumed by C. cautus and substantial volumes of cephalopods being ingested by that species and R. acutus. The pronounced differences in the diet of the single ray species and three shark species reflect differences between a bottom-dwelling and more pelagic life, and between modes of feeding and relative mouth sizes. The relative contributions of the different species of teleost to the diets of the three shark species varied. Thus, although each of these species fed on atherinids, labrids and sillaginids, C. cautus also consumed substantial amounts of platycephalids and terapontids and R. acutus and N. acutidens also ingested considerable amounts of clupeids. Furthermore, R. acutus, which is the only one of the four species that typically occurs over seagrass, was the only species that fed on the centropomid Psammoperca waigensis, which is very abundant in seagrass meadows. However, the sparid Rhabdosargus sarba, which lives in unvegetated areas, was never ingested by R. acutus, but was consumed by C. cautus and N. acutidens. As the individuals of R. typus increased in size, they progressively consumed proportionately smaller volumes of the penaeid prawns Penaeus merguiensis and Melicertus latisulcatus and relatively greater volumes of the portunid crab Portunus pelagicus, which is slightly larger and has a harder exoskeleton. In addition to teleosts, large C. cautus ingested substantial volumes of portunid crabs and ophidian reptiles, presumably sea snakes, while large N. acutidens also fed on the ray R. typus.Communicated by G.F. Humphrey, Sydney     

The encrusting spongeHalisarca laxus: population genetics and association with the ascidianPyura spinifera

The encrusting spongeHalisarca laxus forms a seemingly obligate association with the stalked solitary ascidianPyura spinifera. In 1991 we examined spatial variation and short-term temporal variation in this association at three neighbouring sites in southeastern Australia. This sponge dominated the surface of almost all the 500 individual ascidians examined, with mean cover usually exceeding 90%. This pattern was consistent among sites and throughout the year of the study. The domination of a small isolated patch of habitable substratum by a sponge is most unusual, given that they are regarded as relatively poor recruiters. To understand how this association might be maintained, we determined the underlying genotypic diversity of the sponge population using starch-gel electrophoresis.P. spinifera is a clump-forming ascidian and usually occurs in clumps of up to 22 individuals. Electrophoretic surveys, based on six variable allozyme loci, revealed that at a total of five plots within three neighbouring New South Wales populations, single sponge genotypes may cover entire ascidian clumps; although a clump sometimes played host to more than one sponge clone. Allele frequencies (averaged across four loci that appear to conform to Mendelian inheritance) showed little variation among populations (standardised genetic variance,F _ST=0.013). Nevertheless, sponge populations were genotypically diverse, with samples from 63 of 172 individual clumps displaying unique clonal genotypes. Moreover, multi-locus genotypic diversity within all sites approached the level expected for sexual reproduction with random mating. Taken together, these data imply thatH. laxus produces sexually-derived larvae that are at least moderately widelly dispersed. Given the relatively small size of the patches that this sponge inhabits, we also conclude that these larvae are good colonists and good spatial competitors on their ascidian hosts.     

State-wide increase in prenatal diagnosis of klinefelter syndrome on amniocentesis and chorionic villus sampling: Impact of non-invasive prenatal testing for sex chromosome conditions

Background

To analyze population-based trends in the prenatal diagnosis of sex chromosome aneuploidy (SCA) since the availability of non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT).

Methods

Retrospective state-wide data for all prenatal diagnoses performed <25 weeks gestation from 2005 to 2020 in Victoria, Australia. Non-invasive prenatal testing became locally available from 2012. The prenatal diagnosis rates of SCA as proportions of all prenatal diagnostic tests and all births were calculated. Statistical significance was assessed with the χ² test for trend, with p < 0.05 considered significant.

Results

46,518 amniocentesis and chorionic villus sampling were performed during the study period, detecting 617 SCAs. There was a significant increase in the rate of prenatal SCAs from 5.8 per 10,000 births in 2005 to 8.7 per 10,000 births in 2020 (p < 0.0001). This increase was predominantly due to 47,XXY cases, 91% of which were ascertained via positive NIPT for this condition in 2020. The prenatal diagnosis rate of 47,XXY significantly increased from 0.8 per 10,000 births in 2005 to 4.3 per 10,000 births in 2020 (p < 0.0001).

Conclusion

Screening for SCAs using NIPT has directly led to an increase in their prenatal diagnosis on a population-wide basis, especially 47,XXY. This has implications for clinician education, genetic counselling, and pediatric services.     

Tracking the response of industrial fishing fleets to large marine protected areas in the Pacific Ocean

Large marine protected areas (MPAs) of unprecedented size have recently been established across the global oceans, yet their ability to meet conservation objectives is debated. Key areas of debate include uncertainty over nations’ abilities to enforce fishing bans across vast, remote regions and the intensity of human impacts before and after MPA implementation. We used a recently developed vessel tracking data set (produced using Automatic Identification System detections) to quantify the response of industrial fishing fleets to 5 of the largest MPAs established in the Pacific Ocean since 2013. After their implementation, all 5 MPAs successfully kept industrial fishing effort exceptionally low. Detected fishing effort was already low in 4 of the 5 large MPAs prior to MPA implementation, particularly relative to nearby regions that did not receive formal protection. Our results suggest that these large MPAs may present major conservation opportunities in relatively intact ecosystems with low immediate impact to industrial fisheries, but the large MPAs we considered often did not significantly reduce fishing effort because baseline fishing was typically low. It is yet to be determined how large MPAs may shape global ocean conservation in the future if the footprint of human influence continues to expand. Continued improvement in understanding of how large MPAs interact with industrial fisheries is a crucial step toward defining their role in global ocean management.     

The drivers of greenhouse gas emissions: What do we learn from local case studies?

Abstract

What can local case studies contribute to our understanding of the processes underlying the growth in greenhouse gas emissions? Since much abatement and mitigation are local in character, it is important that policy makers identify the mix of local, national and international processes that contribute to changes in greenhouse gas emissions. Drawing upon the results of case studies in Kansas, North Carolina and Ohio, how patterns of emissions in local areas can be connected analytically to the driving forces of environmental change is demonstrated. Emissions at the local level are empirically associated with the same set of trends found at national and international scale, namely, changes in population, affluence‐consumption and technology.     

Accumulation of aluminium by the freshwater crustacean Asellus aquaticus in neutral water

This study examined the accumulation of aluminium (Al), mostly as the insoluble (Al(OH)(3)) species, by the freshwater crustacean Asellus aquaticus at neutral pH. Animals were exposed to a range of Al concentrations (5-356 microg l(-1)) in three experiments. The first two were of 30 and 50 days duration, respectively, followed by transfer of the A. aquaticus to water containing no Al for 20 days. The third used live and dead animals in order to investigate the contribution made by surface adsorption of Al to the total accumulated. Significant accumulation of Al in the whole tissues occurred by day 10 in all animals in the 30- and 50- day experiment. Peak concentrations of Al were measured in animals between days 10 and 20 with high concentration factors ranging from 1.4 x 10(4) to 5.5 x 10(3). By day 30, accumulated Al had fallen but was still significantly greater than the control in the 50- day exposure experiment. This 30- day increase followed by decreased accumulation of Al was repeated over the remaining exposure period (i.e. 30-50 days) although rates of uptake and loss and peak tissue levels of Al were higher. Proportionality between environmental (water) and tissue concentrations of Al occurred at day 20 but not at day 45. Significantly more Al was accumulated by dead animals than live animals at all Al exposure concentrations. These results suggest that Al is available to the crustacean at neutral pH and that the cuticle may provide an important site of uptake.     

Phenology of mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystems following extreme events: net and differential responses

Ecosystem responses to key climate drivers are reflected in phenological dynamics such as the timing and degree of "green-up" that integrate responses over spatial scales from individual plants to ecosystems. This integration is clearest in ecosystems dominated by a single species or life form, such as seasonally dynamic grasslands or more temporally constant evergreen forests. Yet many ecosystems have substantial contribution of cover from both herbaceous and woody evergreen plants. Responses of mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystems to climate are of increasing concern due to their extensive nature, the potential for such systems to yield more complex responses than those dominated by a single life form, and projections that extreme climate and weather events will increase in frequency and intensity with global warming. We present responses of a mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystem type to an extreme event: regional-scale pi?on pine mortality following an extended drought and the subsequent herbaceous green-up following the first wet period after the drought. This example highlights how reductions in greenness of the slower, more stable evergreen woody component can rapidly be offset by increases associated with resources made available to the relatively more responsive herbaceous component. We hypothesize that such two-phase phenological responses to extreme events are characteristic of many mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystems.