An Approach for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Various Ozone Air Quality Standards for Protecting Trees

We demonstrate an approach for evaluating the level of protection attained using a variety of forms and levels of past, current, and proposed Air Quality Standards (AQSs). The U.S. Clean Air Act requires the establishment of ambient air quality standards to protect health and public welfare. However, determination of attainment of these standards is based on ambient pollutant concentrations rather than prevention of adverse effects. To determine if a given AQS protected against adverse effects on vegetation, hourly ozone concentrations were adjusted to create exposure levels that “just attain” a given standard. These exposures were used in combination with a physiologically-based tree growth model to account for the interactions of climate and ozone. In the evaluation, we used ozone concentrations from two 6-year time periods from the San Bernardino Mountains in California. There were clear differences in the level of vegetation protection achieved with the various AQSs. Based on modeled plant growth, the most effective standards were the California 8-hr average maximum of 70 ppb and a seasonal, cumulative, concentration-weighted index (SUM06), which if attained, resulted in annual growth reductions of 1% or less. Least effective was the 1-hr maximum of 120 ppb which resulted in a 7% annual reduction. We conclude that combining climate, exposure scenarios, and a process-based plant growth simulator was a useful approach for evaluating effectiveness of current or proposed air quality standards, or evaluating the form and/or level of a standard based on preventing adverse growth effects.     

Comparison of 85Kr and 3H Apparent Ground‐Water Ages for Source Water Vulnerability in the Collyer River Catchment,Maine1

Abstract: Apparent ground‐water ages as determined by the noble gas isotope ⁸⁵Kr and the water isotope ³H are compared. Refined gas extraction methodology at the wellhead permits efficient collection of Kr for ⁸⁵Kr isotope enrichment. ⁸⁵Kr isochrones elucidate areas of much younger ground‐water ages than ³H. Declining ³H activities in the catchment prevent its correlation with the youngest measured ⁸⁵Kr ages. Source water for most drinking water supplies in the Collyer River catchment is recharged within 40 years BP (2004). Mean‐age (τ) transport modeling suggests uncertainty of ground‐water ages is greatest in the central basin area.     

Detection and identification of baculovirus pesticides by multitemperature single-strand conformational polymorphism

The method of single-strand conformational polymorphism (SSCP) was modified in our laboratories for the characterization of baculoviruses, insect viruses with great potential for use as bioinsecticides in biological protection programs. A series of primers were synthesized after the comparison of the polyhedrin gene sequences of over 20 baculoviruses. Polyhedrin is a highly conserved protein which is responsible for the persistence of the virus in the environment. Universal primers were designed which could be used in polymerase chain reactions (PCR) containing genomic DNA from an array of nucleopolyhedrosis viruses (NPVs) including these which are used as biopesticides against important pests of forests and crops, such as Anticarsia gemmatalis, Spodoptera frugiperda, Lymantria dispar, Lymantria monacha and many others. PCR products were denatured and subjected to single-strand DNA electrophoresis at variable temperatures (MSSCP) where, after silver staining, they gave ssDNA band patterns characteristic for each baculovirus species. This technique can be potentially applied to detect baculoviruses in insects collected in the field, as well as to plant tissues and the excrements or bodies of predators without need for sequencing the PCR products. Sometimes MSSCP can be used not only for species determination but also as an indication of genomic variability which can be related to infectivity.     

Single-source impact analysis using three-dimensional air quality models

Isolating the effects of an individual emissions source on secondary air pollutants such as ozone and some components of particulate matter must incorporate complex nonlinear processes, be sensitive to small emissions perturbations, and account for impacts that may occur hundreds of kilometers away. The ability to evaluate these impacts is becoming increasingly important for efficient air quality management. Here, as part of a recent compliance enforcement action for a violation of the Clean Air Act and as an evaluation of ozone response to single-source emissions plumes, two three-dimensional regional photochemical air quality models are used to assess the impact on ozone from approximately 2000 to 3000 excess t/month of nitrogen oxides emitted from a single power plant in Ohio. Periods in May, July, and August are evaluated. Two sensitivity methods are applied: the "brute-force" (B-F) method and the decoupled direct method (DDM). Using DDM, maximum 1-hr averaged ozone concentrations are found to increase by up to 1.8, 1.3, and 2.2 ppbv during May, July, and August episodes, respectively, and concentration increases greater than 0.5 ppbv occur in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New York, West Virginia, Virginia, and North and South Carolina. B-F results for the August episode show a maximum 1-hr averaged ozone concentration increase of 2.3 ppbv. Significant localized decreases are also simulated, with a maximum of 3.6 ppbv in Ohio during the August episode and decreases of 0.50 ppbv and greater in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, and Virginia. Maximum increases are compared with maximum decreases for the August period using second-order DDM and are found, in aggregate, to be greater in magnitude by 42%. When evaluated during hours when ozone concentrations exceed 0.060 ppm, the maximum increases in ozone are higher than decreases by 82%. The spatial extent of ozone increase in both cases is about triple that of reduction.     

Will Observation Error and Biases Ruin the Use of Simple Extinction Models?

Abstract: Estimating the risk of extinction for populations of endangered species is an important component of conservation biology. These estimates must be made from data that contain both environmental noise in the year-to-year transitions in population size (so-called "process error"), random errors in sampling, and possible biases in sampling ( both forms of observation errors). To determine how much faith to place in estimated extinction rates, it is important to know how sensitive they are to observation error. We used three simple, commonly employed models of population dynamics to generate simulated population time series. We then combined random observation error or systematic biases with those data, fit models to the time series data, and observed how close the extinction dynamics of the fitted models compared with the dynamics of the underlying models. We found that systematic biases in sampling rarely affected estimates of extinction risk. We also found that even moderate levels of random observation error do not significantly affect extinction estimates except over a small range of process errors, corresponding to the region where extinction risk is most uncertain. With more substantial sampling error, estimates of extinction risk degraded rapidly. Field census techniques for a variety of taxa often involve observation errors within ±32% of actual population sizes. For typical time series used in conservation, therefore, we often may not need to be overly concerned about observation errors as an extra source of imperfection in our estimated extinction rates.     

Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation

Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models.     

The sands of Forvie (Scotland): A case study in geomorphology and conservational management

The Sands of Forvie, National Nature Reserve, Scotland is a complex coastal sand dune system which is associated with the dynamic estuary of the River Ythan. The dune system has developed over more than 5000 years. The south part is a peninsula of dunes, sand hills, sand arcs, erosion and deflation surfaces. The north part is superimposed on a rock plateau with a cliff coastline. This plateau is covered in glacial deposits and is essentially an upland heath landscape. Some of the best examples of large active parabolic dunes in Britain are found in North Forvie. The sequence of geomorphic development is described. As a nature reserve with a rich ecology it has been managed for conservational purposes since 1960s. As such it is an excellent case study of how conservational management has changed to become more flexible and more aware of the importance of dynamic processes.     

Effect of two major N-nitroso hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) metabolites on earthworm reproductive success

Soil and topical tests were employed to investigate the effect of two N-nitroso metabolites of RDX (hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine) on earthworm reproduction. The lowest observed effect concentration (LOEC) for cocoon production and hatching was 50mg/kg for both hexahydro-1-nitroso-3,5-dinitro-1,3,5-triazine (MNX) and hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitroso-1,3,5-triazine (TNX) in soil. MNX and TNX also significantly affected cocoon hatching in soil (p<0.001) and in topical tests (p=0.001). The LOECs for cocoon hatching were 1 and 10mg/kg for MNX and TNX in soil, respectively, and 10mg/L in the topical test. Greater than 100mg/kg MNX and TNX completely inhibited cocoon hatching. In soil, the EC20 values for MNX were 8.7 and 8.8mg/kg for cocoon and juvenile production, respectively, compared to 9.2 and 9.1mg/kg for TNX, respectively. The EC20 values for the total number of cocoon hatchlings were 3.1 and 4.7mg/kg for MNX and TNX, respectively, in soil and 4.5 and 3.1mg/L in the topical test. Both MNX and TNX inhibited cocoon production and hatching, suggesting that they may have a negative affect on soil ecosystems at contaminated sites.     

Tolerating an infection: an indirect benefit of co-founding queen associations in the ant Lasius niger

Pathogens exert a strong selection pressure on organisms to evolve effective immune defences. In addition to individual immunity, social organisms can act cooperatively to produce collective defences. In many ant species, queens have the option to found a colony alone or in groups with other, often unrelated, conspecifics. These associations are transient, usually lasting only as long as each queen benefits from the presence of others. In fact, once the first workers emerge, queens fight to the death for dominance. One potential advantage of co-founding may be that queens benefit from collective disease defences, such as mutual grooming, that act against common soil pathogens. We test this hypothesis by exposing single and co-founding queens to a fungal parasite, in order to assess whether queens in co-founding associations have improved survival. Surprisingly, co-foundresses exposed to the entomopathogenic fungus Metarhizium did not engage in cooperative disease defences, and consequently, we find no direct benefit of multiple queens on survival. However, an indirect benefit was observed, with parasite-exposed queens producing more brood when they co-founded, than when they were alone. We suggest this is due to a trade-off between reproduction and immunity. Additionally, we report an extraordinary ability of the queens to tolerate an infection for long periods after parasite exposure. Our study suggests that there are no social immunity benefits for co-founding ant queens, but that in parasite-rich environments, the presence of additional queens may nevertheless improve the chances of colony founding success.     

Point Sampling Digital Imagery with ‘Samplepoint’

Measuring percent occurrence of objects from digital images can save time and expense relative to conventional field measurements. However, the accuracy of image analysis had, until now, not reached the level of the best conventional field measurements. Additionally, most image-analysis software programs require advanced user training to successfully analyze images. Here we present a new software program, ‘SamplePoint,’ that provides the user a single-pixel sample point and the ability to view and identify the pixel context. We found SamplePoint to allow accuracy comparable with the most accurate field-methods for ground-cover measurements. Expert use of the program requires minimal training and its ease of use allows rapid measurements from image data. We recommend SamplePoint for calibrating the threshold-detection level of image-analysis software or for making direct measurements of percent occurrence from digital images.