Climate Change and Population Growth in Timor Leste: Implications for Food Security

The climate in Timor Leste (East Timor) is predicted to become about 1.5 °C warmer and about 10 % wetter on average by 2050. By the same year, the population is expected to triple from 1 to 2.5–3 million. This article maps the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall and reviews the implications of climate change and population growth on agricultural systems. Improved cultivars of maize, rice, cassava, sweet potato and peanuts with high yield performance have been introduced, but these will need to be augmented in the future with better adapted cultivars and new crops, such as food and fodder legumes and new management practices. The requirements for fertilizers to boost yields and terracing and/or contour hedgerows to prevent soil erosion of steeply sloping terrain are discussed. Contour hedges can also be used for fodder for improved animal production to provide protein to reduce malnutrition.     

PCDD/PCDF Isomer patterns in waste incinerator flyash and desorbed into the gas phase in relation to temperature

The influence of temperature on the PCDD and PCDF isomer profiles of a municipal waste incinerator flyash and the PCDD/PCDF desorbed from the ash under an inert atmosphere was investigated using a bench-scale reactor. Exposure to temperatures of 250 degrees C and above resulted in significant changes in the distribution of isomers within most dioxin and furan congener groups. The PCDD content tended to become more evenly distributed across the range of isomers than was the case for the raw flyash, while the PCDF content became concentrated across a relatively lower number of isomers. In most cases the desorbed PCDD/PCDF were mainly mono- to tri-chlorinated, and hence had a relatively low I-TEQ value. The isomer profiles of the desorbed species were also influenced by temperature. There were some significant differences between the PCDF isomer profiles of the desorbed species and those of the treated flyashes under the same conditions, but no clear differences between the PCDD isomer profiles.     

Desorption of PCDD/PCDF from municipal solid waste incinerator flyash under post-combustion plant conditions

The influence of temperature on the levels of PCDD and PCDF remaining in, and desorbed from, a municipal solid waste incinerator flyash was investigated by heating the ash to between 200 and 400 degrees C under a simulated flue gas for four days reaction time. Considerable desorption of PCDD/PCDF from the flyash was seen at 275 degrees C and above. Maximum desorption occurred at 350 degrees C, with the equivalent of nearly eight times the total PCDD/PCDF concentration of the original flyash being lost to the vapour phase per unit mass of initial flyash. The I-TEQ value of the desorbed PCDD/PCDF was considerable, being over fourteen times that of the original flyash at 325 degrees C. The results indicate that formation of PCDD/PCDF on flyash deposits in the post-combustion plant of incinerators can result in the release of significant amounts of PCDD/PCDF to the flue gas stream.     

Optimal temporal scale for the correlation of AOD and ground measurements of PM2.5 in a real-time air quality estimation system

Aerosol optical depth (AOD), an indirect estimate of particulate matter using satellite observations, has shown great promise in improving estimates of PM_2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) surface. Currently, few studies have been conducted to explore the optimal way to apply AOD data to improve the model accuracy of PM_2.5 in a real-time air quality system. We believe that two major aspects may be worthy of consideration in that area: 1) an approach that integrates satellite measurements with ground measurements in the estimates of pollutants and 2) identification of an optimal temporal scale to calculate the correlation of AOD and ground measurements. This paper is focused on the second aspect, identifying the optimal temporal scale to correlate AOD with PM_2.5. Five following different temporal scales were chosen to evaluate their impact on the model performance: 1) within the last 3 days, 2) within the last 10 days, 3) within the last 30 days, 4) within the last 90 days, and 5) the time period with the highest correlation in a year. The model performance is evaluated for its accuracy, bias, and errors based on the following selected statistics: the Mean Bias, the Normalized Mean Bias, the Root Mean Square Error, Normalized Mean Error, and the Index of Agreement. This research shows that the model with the temporal scale: within the last 30 days, displays the best model performance in a southern multi-state area centered in Mississippi using 2004 and 2005 data sets.     

Tetrodotoxin affects survival probability of rough-skinned newts (Taricha granulosa) faced with TTX-resistant garter snake predators (Thamnophis sirtalis)

Lethal chemical defenses in prey species can have profound effects on interactions with predators. The presence of lethal defenses in prey can correct the selective imbalance suggested by the life-dinner principle in which the fitness consequences of an encounter between predator and prey should be much greater for the prey species than the predator. Despite the apparent adaptive advantages of lethality the evolution of deadly prey presents a fundamental dilemma. How might lethal defenses confer an individual fitness advantage if both predators and prey die during interactions? We examined the interaction between the rough-skinned newt (Taricha granulosa), which contains a powerful neurotoxin called tetrodotoxin (TTX), and the common garter snake (Thamnophis sirtalis). In some sympatric populations, Th. sirtalis have evolved physiological resistance to TTX. Whether the newts’ toxin confers protection from snake predators or has been disarmed by the snakes’ physiological resistance has not yet been directly tested. In predator–prey trials, newts that were rejected by snakes had greater concentrations of TTX in their skin (4.52 ± 3.49 mg TTX/g skin) than those that were eaten (1.72 ± 1.53 mg TTX/g skin). Despite the plethora of taxa that appear to use TTX defensively, this is the first direct and quantitative demonstration of the antipredator efficacy of TTX. Because the survival probability of a newt (and thus fitness) is affected by individual TTX concentration, selection can drive the escalation of toxin levels in newts. The variable fitness consequences associated with both TTX levels of newts and resistance to TTX in snakes that may promote a strong and symmetrical coevolutionary relationship have now been demonstrated.     

Implications of urine-to-feces ratio in the thermophilic anaerobic digestion of swine waste.

Thermophilic anaerobic digestion of swine manure represents a potential waste treatment technology to address environmental concerns, such as odor emissions and removal of pathogenic microorganisms. However, there are concerns relative to the stability of this process when swine manure is the sole substrate. In this study, the potential of biogas production from swine manure as the sole substrate under thermophilic (50 degrees C) conditions was investigated in the laboratory, to determine whether separation of urine and feces as part of the waste collection process would benefit anaerobic digestion. Effluent from a continuously stirred tank reactor was used as the inoculum for batch tests, in which the substrate contained three different concentrations of urine (urine-free, as-excreted urine-to-feces ratio and double the as-excreted urine-to-feces ratio). Inocula were acclimated to these same urine-to-feces ratios to determine methane production. Results show that both urine-free and as-excreted substrates were not inhibitory to anaerobic inocula. Anaerobic microorganisms can be readily acclimated to substrate with double the as-excreted urine concentration, which contained nitrogen concentrations up to 7.20 g/L. Cumulative methane production reached similar levels in the batch tests, regardless of the substrate urine concentration.     

Effect of decabromodiphenyl ether and antimony trioxide on controlled pyrolysis of high-impact polystyrene mixed with polyolefins

The controlled pyrolysis of polyethylene/polypropylene/polystyrene mixed with brominated high-impact polystyrene containing decabromodiphenyl ether as a brominated flame-retardant with antimony trioxide as a synergist was performed. The effect of decabromodiphenyl ether and antimony trioxide on the formation of its congeners and their effect on distribution of pyrolysis products were investigated. The controlled pyrolysis significantly affected the decomposition behavior and the formation of products. Analysis with gas chromatograph with electron capture detector confirmed that the bromine content was rich in step 1 (oil 1) liquid products leaving less bromine content in the step 2 (oil 2) liquid products. In the presence of antimony containing samples, the major portion of bromine was observed in the form of antimony bromide and no flame-retardant species were found in oil 1. In the presence of synergist, the step 1 and step 2 oils contain both light and heavy compounds. In the absence of synergist, the heavy compounds in step 1 oil and light compounds in step 2 oils were observed. The presence of antimony bromide was confirmed in the step 1 oils but not in step 2 oils.     

Characterizing ammonia emissions from swine farms in eastern North Carolina: part 1--conventional lagoon and spray technology for waste treatment

Ammonia (NH3) fluxes from waste treatment lagoons and barns at two conventional swine farms in eastern North Carolina were measured. The waste treatment lagoon data were analyzed to elucidate the temporal (seasonal and diurnal) variability and to derive regression relationships between NH3 flux and lagoon temperature, pH and ammonium content of the lagoon, and the most relevant meteorological parameters. NH3 fluxes were measured at various sampling locations on the lagoons by a flowthrough dynamic chamber system interfaced to an environmentally controlled mobile laboratory. Two sets of open-path Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometers were also used to measure NH3 concentrations for estimating NH3 emissions from the animal housing units (barns) at the lagoon and spray technology (LST) sites. Two different types of ventilation systems were used at the two farms. Moore farm used fan ventilation, and Stokes farm used natural ventilation. The early fall and winter season intensive measurement campaigns were conducted during September 9 to October 11, 2002 (lagoon temperature ranged from 21.2 to 33.6 degrees C) and January 6 to February 2, 2003 (lagoon temperature ranged from 1.7 to 12 degrees C), respectively. Significant differences in seasonal NH3 fluxes from the waste treatment lagoons were found at both farms. Typical diurnal variation of NH3 flux with its maximum value in the afternoon was observed during both experimental periods. Exponentially increasing flux with increasing surface lagoon temperature was observed, and a linear regression relationship between logarithm of NH3 flux and lagoon surface temperature (T1) was obtained. Correlations between lagoon NH3 flux and chemical parameters, such as pH, total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), and total ammoniacal nitrogen (TAN) were found to be statistically insignificant or weak. In addition to lagoon surface temperature, the difference (D) between air temperature and the lagoon surface temperature was also found to influence the NH3 flux, especially when D > 0 (i.e., air hotter than lagoon). This hot-air effect is included in the statistical-observational model obtained in this study, which was used further in the companion study (Part II), to compare the emissions from potential environmental superior technologies to evaluate the effectiveness of each technology.