天津市基于新标准的空气质量预报模型效果评估

利用2015年环境空气质量监测数据,对天津市OPAQ空气质量统计预报模型预测效果进行验证评估。结果表明,模型对天津市AQI和PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、O_3、NO——2的预测结果与实测结果具有较好的趋势一致性,且预测时间越临近,拟合度越好,24 h预报的相关系数r全部达到0.8以上。对PM_(2.5)的预报性能明显优于PM_(10)、O_3和NO_2,PM_(2.5)平均值预测略呈正偏差,但重污染预测值偏低约15%;O_3和NO_2预测值呈明显负偏差,O_3峰值预测不足,NO_2预测值整体偏低,均以24 h预报趋势性最好,但负偏差最为突出。     

河流沉积物中有机污染物的分析研究进展

总结了近年来河流沉积物中有机污染物的研究进展 ,集中评述了国内有关沉积物中多环芳烃、有机氯农药和多氯联苯的分析研究现状 ,包括样品采集、样品前处理和样品分析 ,并对今后河流、湖泊及水库沉积物中污染物的分析工作作了展望     

Seasonal variation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil and air of Dalian areas, China: an assessment of soil-air exchange

The seasonal variations of concentrations of PAHs in the soil and the air were measured in urban and rural region of Dalian, China in 2007. In soil, mean concentrations of all PAHs in summer were larger than those in winter, whereas the concentrations of heavier weight PAHs in winter were larger than those in summer. Winter/summer concentration ratios for individual PAHs (R(W/S)) increased with the increase of molecular weight of PAHs in soil, indicating that PAHs with high molecular weight were more easily deposited to soil in winter than summer. In air, mean concentrations of all PAHs in winter were larger than those in summer. In comparison with the R(W/S) in soil, all the values of R(W/S) in air were larger than one indicating that the entire individual PAH concentrations in winter were larger than those in summer. The average concentration composition for each PAH compound in soil and air samples was determined and the seasonal change of PAH profile was very small. It was suggested that PAHs in soils and air had the same or similar sources both in winter and summer. The approach to the soil-air equilibrium was assessed by calculating fugacity quotients between soil and air using the soil and air concentrations. The calculated soil-air fugacity quotients indicated that soil acted as a secondary source to the atmosphere for all lighter weight PAHs (two-three rings) and it will continue to be a sink for heavier weight PAHs (five-six rings) in the Dalian environment, both in winter and summer. Medium weight PAHs (four-five rings) were close to the soil-air equilibrium and the tendency shifted between soil and air when season or function region changed. The fugacity quotients of PAHs in summer (mean temperature 298 K) were larger than those in winter (mean temperature 273 K), indicating a higher tendency in summer than winter for PAHs to move from soil to air. The variation of ambient conditions such as temperature, rainfall, etc. can influence the movement of PAHs between soil and air. Most of the fugacity quotients of PAHs for the urban sites were larger than that for the rural site both in winter and summer. This phenomenon may be related with that the temperatures in urban sites were higher than those in the rural site because of the urban heat island effect.     

煤矸石山周围塌陷区水体中多环芳烃调查与生态风险评价

以煤矿区及煤矸石的污染特征为依据,选取16种EPA优先控制多环芳烃（PAHs）污染物,采用高效液相色谱法对不同堆积年限的矿区煤矸石山周围塌陷区的水体样品进行测试,分别分析此类水体中单个PAHs和总PAHs的分布情况及水体中PAHs不同环数的组成情况,并采用风险商值法进行水体生态风险评价,指出此类水体的不当开发利用会引起人体健康危害。     

Spatial and seasonal characteristics of river water chemistry in the Taizi River in Northeast China

Anthropogenic activities have led to water quality deterioration in many parts of the world, especially in Northeast China. The current work investigated the spatiotemporal variations of water quality in the Taizi River by multivariate statistical analysis of data from the 67 sampling sites in the mainstream and major tributaries of the river during dry and rainy seasons. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the 20 measured variables (except pH, 5-day biological oxygen demand, permanganate index, and chloride, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus concentrations) showed significant seasonal (p?≤?0.05) and spatial (p?<?0.05) variations among the mainstream and major tributaries of the river. Hierarchical cluster analysis of data from the different seasons classified the mainstream and tributaries of the river into three clusters, namely, less, moderately, and highly polluted clusters. Factor analysis extracted five factors from data in the different seasons, which accounted for the high percentage of the total variance and reflected the integrated characteristics of water chemistry, organic pollution, phosphorous pollution, denitrification effect, and nitrogen pollution. The results indicate that river pollution in Northeast China was mainly from natural and/or anthropogenic sources, e.g., rainfall, domestic wastewater, agricultural runoff, and industrial discharge.     

街道峡谷内车辆流动对反应性污染物传播特性影响的模拟研究

采用CFD（计算流体力学）数值模拟的研究方法,使用动网格技术,分析简单光化学反应下车辆流动及不同来流风速对双车道三维街道峡谷内污染物传播特性的影响.结果表明,车辆移动改变了峡谷内气流结构,以及背风侧与迎风侧活性污染物浓度分布的相对大小,有利于污染物在峡谷中的传播扩散;来流风使机动车尾气向建筑背风侧汇聚,并随着风速增加而加强,对近迎风侧车道车辆尾气淹没射流的影响比近背风侧车道大.在车辆移动与来流风的综合作用下,污染物的扩散能力得到显著增强.     

基于3种时间序列模型的九龙江河流库区藻华预测

湖库富营养化和有害藻华是全球性生态环境问题,藻华预测与早期预警是保障湖库水源地供水安全的关键技术.如何基于高频水生态在线监测数据进行藻华的实时动态预测成为水生态管理领域的重大需求.本研究以福建省九龙江江东库区(水源地)为例,利用3年连续观测的逐时平均总叶绿素a浓度数据,对比研究了SARIMA、Prophet和LSTM(长短期记忆神经网络)3种时间序列模型在藻华(日平均叶绿素a大于15μg·L^-1)预测方面的效果.结果表明：(1)时间序列模型要求参数少,灵活性强,能清晰反映水质特征和未来变化趋势,可弥补传统藻类监测预警方法的局限性;(2)基于深度学习框架的LSTM模型,具有独特的迭代优化算法,对藻类非线性变化特征的识别和预测能力较强,其总叶绿素a逐日预测和7日预测效果均显著优于SARIMA模型和Prophet模型;(3)输入数据长度会在一定程度上影响模型预测效果,最优的输入数据时间长度为7 d;输入数据频率对预测效果也有影响,在预测非藻华日时,小时数据的预测效果优于日频率数据;在预测藻华日时,两种频率数据无显著差异,但日频率数据能更准确识别藻华日特征.总结起来,基于...     

三叶鬼针草生物量分配与化感作用对大气温度升高的响应

全球气候变暖已经成为不容置疑的事实,同时外来入侵植物对入侵地的生态环境造成严重的危害,外来入侵植物可能对温度升高做出积极地响应。文章研究了不同温度(22、26和30℃)处理对入侵植物三叶鬼针草(Bidens pilosa L.)种子萌发、幼苗生物量分配及化感作用的影响,探讨三叶鬼针草对全球气候变暖的响应策略。结果表明;温度为22和26℃比30℃有利于三叶鬼针草种子的萌发。温度升高显著增加三叶鬼针草的株高、生物量和叶面积,三叶鬼针草幼苗增加对茎和叶的生物量投资。同时相同浓度的三叶鬼针草水浸提液对马唐(Digitaria sanguinalis(L.)Scop)和牛筋草(Eleusine indica(L.)Gaertn)的化感作用随着温度升高而增强。研究表明:温度升高促进了三叶鬼针草的生长,改变生物量分配模式同时增强了对受体植物的化感作用。温度升高可能是促进三叶鬼针草入侵的生态环境因子之一,未来全球气温变暖可能使其入侵加剧。