基于因子与聚类分析的公益林水源涵养效益研究

为了对我国公益林涵养水源的价值进行研究与管理,为森林生态补偿提供依据,运用成本替代法对各省市公益林水源涵养效益进行了核算,收集全国各省市的公益林面积、降雨量、蒸散量和地表径流量等数据,建立了各省市公益林水源涵养价值核算模型.结果表明,依据不同因子将各省市划分为4类,所建立的核算模型具有统计学和经济学意义.该研究为我国公益林生态效益补偿标准的制定提供了依据与借鉴.     

我国农产品价格波动的原因及对策

2010年以来,我国农产品价格进入新一轮上涨周期,部分农产品价格上涨较快,助推了CPI涨幅,助长了通胀预期.农产品生产价格大幅跑赢CPI和PPI,阻碍了我国经济的健康发展.宏观经济和气候变化是农产品价格波动的基本诱发因素,本轮农产品价格上涨是供求关系趋紧、国际市场传导的必然反映.因此,要适当提高农产品价格上涨的容忍度,采取有效措施,减少贸易顺差,扭转被动发行钞票的局面,逐渐改变外汇结算方式,藏富于民,建立农产品风险基金制度和产业预警机制等.     

基于农户调查的林权改革林地经营适度规模研究——以甘肃省天水市林权改革为例

集体林权制度改革后,农户林地经营规模的大小关系着其收入的高低,并影响着森林经营效率.结合在甘肃省天水市进行的问卷调查,从农户意愿出发,采用统计方法对结果进行分析.研究表明,家庭户均林地面积、家庭劳动力数量和农户的职业是影响农户期望的林地经营面积的重要因素.研究建议相关部门制定有针对性的改革配套政策,促进农户林地经营的适度规模化,以实现农户的增收和林区的和谐发展.     

气相色谱法单塔双柱双检测器测定农产品中有机氯与拟除虫菊酯类农药残留应用探索

气相色谱经加装双ECD检测器,实现单塔双柱双检测器测定农产品中有机氯、拟除虫菊酯类农药残留,在不须关机换色谱柱情况下实现双柱定性定量分析。该方法可节约大量定性分析时间,通过百菌清、氯氟氰菊酯、三唑酮、氯氰菊酯的加标回收试验,平均回收率为95.0%～102.5%,相对标准偏差为1.88%～3.72%,方法稳定可靠。     

项目教学法在高职商务英语谈判教学中的应用——以中国环境管理干部学院为例

项目教学法是教师为主导,学生为主体,项目为载体,任务为驱动,以职业能力培养为目标,以社会需求为背景的系统的教学方法。以中国环境管理干部学院为例,通过讲述项目教学法的特点及在实践教学中的应用原则,提出了项目教学法在学院商务英语谈判课堂上进行的步骤、遇到的困难,并提出了相应的改进措施。     

Chlorophyll a Simulation in a Lake Ecosystem Using a Model with Wavelet Analysis and Artificial Neural Network

Accurate and reliable forecasting is important for the sustainable management of ecosystems. Chlorophyll a (Chl a) simulation and forecasting can provide early warning information and enable managers to make appropriate decisions for protecting lake ecosystems. In this study, we proposed a method for Chl a simulation in a lake that coupled the wavelet analysis and the artificial neural networks (WA–ANN). The proposed method had the advantage of data preprocessing, which reduced noise and managed nonstationary data. Fourteen variables were included in the developed and validated model, relating to hydrologic, ecological and meteorologic time series data from January 2000 to December 2009 at the Lake Baiyangdian study area, North China. The performance of the proposed WA–ANN model for monthly Chl a simulation in the lake ecosystem was compared with a multiple stepwise linear regression (MSLR) model, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and a regular ANN model. The results showed that the WA-ANN model was suitable for Chl a simulation providing a more accurate performance than the MSLR, ARIMA, and ANN models. We recommend that the proposed method be widely applied to further facilitate the development and implementation of lake ecosystem management.     

黑龙江省近50年来沼泽湿地退缩特及其原因分析

在RS和GIS的支持下,综合集成1954年地形图和2000年TM影像重建黑龙江省1954～2000年沼泽湿地的空间信息矢量数据,结合斑块质心变化模型、景观参数和欧几里德最短距离函数,分析黑龙江省沼泽湿地退缩的区域分异特征,进一步从人类活动对沼泽退缩的影响的角度探讨沼泽退缩的原因.研究结果表明:黑龙江省近50年来,沼泽湿地面积急剧减少,由791.4×104 hm2减少到303.5×104 hm2;沼泽景观趋于破碎化;退缩的焦点区域主要集中在三江平原、大小兴安岭和松嫩平原.导致湿地退缩的人文原因主要包括三个方面:人口增加和耕地的不断开垦,国家建设国营农场的农业发展政策,与主要公路的空间区位关系.     

Single and joint effects of petroleum hydrocarbons and cadmium on the polychaete Perinereis aibuhitensis Grube

Using the concentration gradient and combined pollutant exposure method, the single and joint effects of petroleum hydrocarbons （PHCs） and cadmium （Cd） on polychaete Perinereis aibuhitensis Grube, an ecologically keystone species in estuarine and coastal environment, have been investigated. The results indicate that the toxicity of PHCs to P. aibuhitensis is stronger than that of Cd to the organism. There are positive correlations between the mortality of worms and the exposed concentration of single Cd or PHCs in solution. Similarly, the accumulation of Cd or PHCs in worms increased with increasing Cd- or PHC-exposed concentrations. All the correlation relationships can be described using unitary quadratic equations （Y or Z = aX^2 ＋ bX ＋ c）. It is calculated, on the basis of these expressions, that the median lethal dose （LC50） ofP aibuhitensis exposed to a single Cd or PHCs is 793.4-13567.3 and 28.0-119.9 μg/L, respectively. The exposed time has some stimulative effect on the two pollutants and on the mortality of the worms. Thus, even a low concentration of a single Cd or PHCs may have strong toxic effects on the worms when the exposed time becomes longer. The accumulation of Cd or PHCs in worms differs with an increase in exposure time at the given exposed concentration of a single Cd or PHCs. Noticeably, the accumulation of PHCs in worms decreases with an increase in exposure time at the given high concentration of PHCs in solution. The joint effect of PHCs and Cd on P. aibuhitensis is very complicated and changes with the exposed concentrations of the two pollutants. At the given concentration of PHCs, the joint toxicity of the two pollutants on the worms changes from synergism to antagonism with an increase in Cd concentration. The accumulation of Cd in the worms significantly decreases with the addition of PHCs to exposure solution.     

以废菌体为填料的连续流反应器对Pb【sup】2+【/sup】的吸附特性

研究了非活性固定化啤酒酵母废菌体对废水中重金属离子Pb2 的动态吸附特性,考察了动力学方程、热力学方程对试验的拟合效果,了解吸附过程的规律性.结果表明:Langmuir和Freundlich模型都能较好地拟合试验过程,但以Langmuir模型的拟合效果更好,相关系数达0.996 8,其最大吸附量为7.788 mg/g;拟合试验过程同时符合Thomas动力学模型,相关系数达0.954 7;当溶液中的初始ρ(pb2 )(C0)和流速(Q)分别控制在20 mg/L和2 mL/min左右时,处理效果最好.通过对重金属废水的处理,可以达到以废治废的效果.     

浅析墨菲定律及海因里希法则对控制事故的作用

通过对墨菲定律及海因里希法则的分析,得出重视小概率事件和控制未遂事故的作用,可提高企业安全管理水平,达到预防和控制事故的目的。