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31.
PROBLEM: There are no specific indicators for distinguishing insurance claims related to speeding and impaired driving in the information warehouse at the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia. Contributing factors are only recorded for that part of the claim data that is also reported by the police. Most published statistics on crashes that are related to alcohol or speeding are based on police-reported data, but this represents only a fraction of all incidents. METHOD: This paper proposes surrogate models to estimate the counts and the average costs associated with speeding and impaired driving to insurance claims when contributing factors are unknown. Using police-reported data, classification rules and logistic regression models are developed to form such estimates. One approach applies classification rules to categorize insurance claims into those related to speeding, impaired driving, and other factors. The counts and the costs of insurance claims for each of these strata and overall are then estimated. A second method models the probability that an insurance claim is related to speeding or impaired driving using logistic regression and uses this to estimate the overall counts and the average costs of the claims. The two methods are compared and evaluated using simulation studies. RESULTS: The logistic regression model was found to be superior to the classification model for predicting insurance claim counts by category, but less efficient at predicting average claim costs. IMPACT: Having estimates of counts and costs of insurance claims related to impaired driving or speeding for all reported crash events provides a more accurate basis for policy-makers to plan changes and benefits of road safety programs.  相似文献   
32.
INTRODUCTION: Logistic regression modelling of crash counts likely associated with speeding and impaired driving was earlier found [Zheng, Y., Cooper, P. J., & Dean, C. B. (2007). Modeling the contribution of speeding and impaired driving to insurance claim counts and costs when contributing factors are unknown. Journal of Safety Research, 38(1)] to successfully predict known outcomes in a series of simulations, but the same types of models did not accurately predict average crash costs. The aim of the study reported here was to develop a means to adjust classification model results that would improve their cost-predicting efficiency. METHOD: A classification modelling process was adjusted at the back-end using non-linear optimization to rationalize the classified proportions with the true proportions when the model was applied to representative subsets of the training data. Corrections were developed to account for cost (severity) differences arising from the classification process that were not due to true variations. The process was then applied to insurance claim test data where crash contributors were unknown. RESULTS: The optimization and severity correction procedure resulted in substantial improvement in average crash cost prediction for both impaired and unsafe speed collision involvements. The error measured against true values in 20 simulations was about half for the adjusted classification model of what it was for either unadjusted classification or logistic regression models. CONCLUSIONS: Non-linear optimization of classification matrices appears to be a workable tool for improving the predictive efficiency of models where desired outcomes represent average characteristics of records as compared to simple counts or proportions. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Using the methodology on a full-year of insurance claim data indicated that reliance on police-reported records alone would have underestimated the total cost of unsafe speed and impaired crashes by about 40%. Since most jurisdictions use police data to base policy decisions and set program spending around such safety issues, this finding has important implications.  相似文献   
33.
The impact of UV-B radiation on 10 genotypically different barley and tomato cultivars was tested in a predictive study to screen for potentially UV-tolerant accessions and to analyze underlying mechanisms for UV-B sensitivity. Plant response was analyzed by measuring thermoluminescence, fluorescence, gas exchange and antioxidant status. Generally, barley cultivars proved to be much more sensitive against UV-B radiation than tomato cultivars. Statistical cluster analysis could resolve two barley groups with distinct differences in reaction patterns. The UV-B sensitive group showed a stronger loss in PSII photochemistry and a lower gas-exchange performance and regulation after UV-B radiation compared to the more tolerant group. The results indicate that photosynthetic light and dark reactions have to play optimally in concert to render plants more tolerant against UV-B radiation. Hence, measuring thermoluminescence/fluorescence and gas exchange in parallel will have much higher potential in identifying tolerant cultivars and will help to understand the underlying mechanisms.  相似文献   
34.
Many regions of southern California's coastal sage scrub (CSS) are rapidly declining as exotic annual plants replace native shrubs. During this conversion, the subsurface hydrology of the semiarid hillslopes that support CSS may be altered. This could chronically suppress the ability of native shrubland to revegetate the landscape since ecosystem processes of nutrient availability and of seedling establishment rely on spatial patterns of available soil water. In this work, soil water and nutrient N regimes were compared over a 2-yr period between a southern California site where CSS has declined (approximately 5% shrub cover) with high additions of anthropogenic N, and one where CSS remains dominant (over 50% shrub cover) with predominantly background atmospheric additions of N. These two sites have similar climate, bedrock lithology, soils, and topography, and had the same vegetation type (Riversidean CSS) 30 years ago. We found that the depth and rate of rainwater percolation into wildland hillslope soils in response to early-season storm events has been greatly reduced after loss of CSS shrubs and vegetation type conversion to invasive grassland. With decreased rainwater redistribution to soil depths of 100 to 150 cm, the predominant zone of soil water has become the upper 25 cm. This shift exacerbates vegetation type conversion by (i) concentrating smog-produced nitrogenous (N) chemicals in the uppermost soil, where they become readily available, along with high soil water, to shallow-rooted exotic grasses early in the growing season and (ii) depriving adult and juvenile shrubs of deeper regolith water.  相似文献   
35.
The relationship between light and perceived safety at night is intuitively strong, yet theoretically and empirically its workings are largely unknown. Intelligent dynamic road lighting, which continuously adapts to the presence and behavior of users, can light the street only when and where it is needed. As such, it offers a solution to the energy waste and luminous pollution associated with conventional road lighting. With this innovation, however, new questions emerge about the effect of lighting on perceived safety. We need to consider not only how much lighting pedestrians need to feel safe, but also which parts of the street should be lit. In two experiments, we investigated the effect of different light distributions on perceived safety, and explored mediation by people's appraisal of three safety-related cues suggested in the literature: prospect (having an overview), escape (perceived escape possibilities), and refuge/concealment (perceived hiding places for offenders). Both experiments, one with stationary and one with walking participants, demonstrated that people prefer having light in their own immediate surroundings rather than on the road that lies ahead. This could be explained, partially, by changes in prospect, escape, and concealment. Against expectations, prospect was higher with lighting distributions in which participants' immediate surroundings, but not the more distant parts of the road, were most strongly lit.  相似文献   
36.
Conservation and protection of soil and water resources and visual aspects of landscape, as well as the promotion of biodiversity, are some of the central tasks of environmental policy development and social politics in the future. One of the main questions is: ‘which agricultural systems are able to guarantee sustained resource-conserving land use?’ Based on the ecological risk concepts of the 1970s and 1980s, a potential impact model was developed using a universal assessment algorithm derived from fuzzy logic. The model estimated the potential impact of agricultural land use on ecosystem function using a few resource indicators. Intervention intensities of agricultural land-use are set in relation to site conditions and aggregated for each of several defined potential impact categories. The interpretation with respect to risk and the calculation of potential impact values are explained.  相似文献   
37.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated a two-year regional pilot survey in 2007 to develop, test, and validate tools and approaches to assess the condition of northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coastal wetlands. Sampling sites were selected from estuarine and palustrine wetland areas with herbaceous, forested, and shrub/scrub habitats delineated by the US Fish and Wildlife Service National Wetlands Inventory Status and Trends (NWI S&T) program and contained within northern GOM coastal watersheds. A multi-level, stepwise, iterative survey approach is being applied to multiple wetland classes at 100 probabilistically-selected coastal wetlands sites. Tier 1 provides information at the landscape scale about habitat inventory, land use, and environmental stressors associated with the watershed in which each wetland site is located. Tier 2, a rapid assessment conducted through a combination of office and field work, is based on best professional judgment and on-site evidence. Tier 3, an intensive site assessment, involves on-site collection of vegetation, water, and sediment samples to establish an integrated understanding of current wetland condition and validate methods and findings from Tiers 1 and 2. The results from this survey, along with other similar regional pilots from the Mid-Atlantic, West Coast, and Great Lakes Regions will contribute to a design and implementation approach for the National Wetlands Condition Assessment to be conducted by EPA’s Office of Water in 2011.  相似文献   
38.
Developing realistic soil carbon (C) sequestration strategies for China’s sustainable agriculture relies on accurate estimates of the amount, retention and turnover rates of C stored in paddy soils. Available C estimates to date are predominantly for the tilled and flood-irrigated surface topsoil (ca. 30 cm). Such estimates cannot be used to extrapolate to soil depths of 100 cm since soil organic carbon (SOC) generally shows a sharp decrease with depth. In this research, composite soil samples were collected at several depths to 100 cm from three representative paddy soils in the Taihu Lake region, China. Soil organic carbon distribution in the profiles and in aggregate-size fractions was determined. Results showed that while SOC decreased exponentially with depth to 100 cm, a substantial proportion of the total SOC (30%–40%) is stored below the 30 cm depth. In the carbon-enriched paddy topsoils, SOC was found to accumulate preferentially in the 2–0.25 and 0.25–0.02 mm aggregate size fractions. σ13C analysis of the coarse micro-aggregate fraction showed that the high degree of C stratification in the paddy topsoil was in agreement with the occurrence of lighter @1313C in the upper 30 cm depth. These results suggest that SOC stratification within profiles varies with di erent pedogenetical types of paddy soils with regards to clay and iron oxyhydrates distributions. Sand-sized fractions of aggregates in paddy soil systems may play a very important role in carbon sequestration and turnover, dissimilar to other studied agricultural systems.  相似文献   
39.

Aims and Scope

Over recent decades, the climate has changed. Up to now this statement has been made predominantly for the global and/or continental area. What, however, is the situation regarding the climatic trend at the regional scale? Is it already possible to show effects of a climate change in small-scale landscape structures? These questions were addressed looking at the example of the situation in the federal state of Rhineland-Palatinate (Germany).

Methods

Phenological data of plants of the last 50 years from a total of 386 stations of the German Weather Service (DWD) were evaluated. The timing of the different plant phases, beginning of the foliation and plant senescence in autumn, flowering and the first ripening of the fruits had to be registered for different agricultural crops, wild plants, ornamental woods as well as fruit trees. The analysed data material was used to develop the threefold phenological clock (DPU).

Results

Summarising the findings of the DPU for the 15 evaluated nature districts of Rhineland-Palatinate according to individual seasons, which were defined in generic terms as spring, summer, autumn and winter, a tendency of a prematuring of the spring, a prolongation of the autumn as well as a shortening of the winter is evident. From a regional point of view, on the other hand, in individual nature districts such as the ‘Westerwald’ and the ‘Bergisch-Sauerländische Gebirge’, winter seasons are getting longer. Thus the effects of a climate change can differ considerably from region to region.

Outlook

The regionally quite different changes of the climatic situation in Rhineland-Palatinate will not remain without an effect on the ecosystems of this federal state. The currently existing biocoenosis will therefore change. The consequences for forestry, agriculture and nature conservation are of special interest in this context.  相似文献   
40.

Expanding the opportunities for public participation in environmental planning is not always the best option. Starting from an institutional public choice analysis of public participation in terms of the collective action problem, this paper emphasises the roots of participatory activities in the incentive structures facing potential participants. It then goes on to consider the strategies that may be adopted for encouraging greater public involvement and looks particularly to the social capital literature for suggestions of how institutional redesign may alter these incentive structures. The paper concludes by distinguishing three different modes of environmental planning, in terms of the rationale for participation, the severity of the collective action problem and the associated participatory strategy that can be adopted.  相似文献   
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