Risk-based standards: integrating top–down and bottom–up approaches

In response to rapidly changing threats posed to increasingly complex socio-technical systems, many in the government and private sector have called for protection through risk-based standards. However, given the nature of these dynamic and uncertain threats, traditional risk assessment techniques may not be sufficient. Instead, there is a critical need for an integrated approach in which decision analytic techniques are used to assess evidence-based data with the values and preferences of decision makers. We point to three examples in the fields of nuclear power regulation, nanotechnology, and cybersecurity, where risk-based approaches (bottom–up) have been combined with decision analysis (top–down) to guide decision makers toward risk management policies that manifest both the best available evidence and the plurality of values within a society.     

Cell-free DNA fetal fraction in twin gestations in single-nucleotide polymorphism-based noninvasive prenatal screening

Objectives

The performance of noninvasive prenatal screening (NIPS) for fetal aneuploidy in twin pregnancies is dependent on the amount of placentally derived cell-free DNA, the “fetal fraction (FF),” present in maternal plasma. We report FF values in monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) pregnancies.

Methods

We reviewed FF in pregnancies at 10 to 20 completed weeks gestational age based on single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based NIPS where zygosity was routinely established in twin pregnancies. The cohort included 121 446 (96.3%) singleton, 1454 (1.2%) MZ, and 3161 (2.5%) DZ pregnancies. For DZ twins, individual FFs were measured.

Results

Combined FF for DZ and MZ fetuses were 35% and 26% greater than singletons, respectively. The individual FF contributions from each fetus in DZ twins were, on average, 32% less than singletons. FF in DZ twin pairs were moderately correlated (Pearson correlation coefficient.66). When a threshold of 2.8% FF was applied to define uninterpretable results, 1.7% (2102/121 446) of singletons, 0.8% (11/1454) of MZ pairs, and 5.6% (178/3161) of DZ pairs were uninterpretable.

Conclusion

For optimal aneuploidy NIPS in twin pregnancies, zygosity should be established and in DZ twins FF for both fetuses should be determined to identify those cases where results can be reliably interpreted.     

Analyzing interdependent impacts of resource sustainability

Quantifying the impact of the shortage of a scarce resource requires a systemic account of the interdependent nature of several industry and infrastructure sectors that rely either directly or indirectly on that resource. An ability to quickly and easily quantify such an impact provides policymakers with a useful measure of the efficacy of discovering, designing, or developing a sustainable alternative. Discussed in this paper is a methodological approach for measuring the broader interdependent impacts of a resource shortage. The dynamic inoperability input–output model (DIIM) is used to illustrate both the economic effects of resource shortages over a period of time and the time-dependent recovery of industry sectors. Extensions to the DIIM are introduced to produce an accessible tool for policymakers and industry decision makers. Case studies using publicly available data illustrate the usefulness of the model for describing local oil production shortages and global rare earth metals supply shortages, highlighting the industries that will need to adapt to changes in resource availability, as well as those industries that will remain relatively unaffected. Above all, the model presented in this paper is an effective means of communicating the impact and importance of resource shortages to assist in the design and development of a sustainable future.     

Effects of feeding history on the growth characteristics of a reef fish at settlement

A feeding experiment was conducted on the pelagic stages of the tropical goatfish Upeneus tragula (family Mullidae) to examine how food quantity affects growth characteristics and potential success at settlement. Pelagic goatfish were collected from aggregation rafts 3 nautical miles west of Lizard Island on the northern Great Barrier Reef during December 1990. Three tanks in each of four feeding regimes were stocked with 25 pelagic goatfish between 20 and 23 mm standard length (SL). The four feeding regimes were: fed ad lib. (fed): fed once per day (f1pd); starved every second day (stld); starved for 3 d and re-fed (st3d). Fishes were fed 36 to 48 h old Artemia sp. nauplii (Ocean Star strain). Fish were removed from tanks when they underwent metamorphosis, changed pigmentation and settled to the bottom of the tanks. Morphology, muscle development, time taken to settle and biochemical condition were examined. Growth attributes of the treated fish were compared to fish which settled within 24 h of capture (field). All attributes examined were significantly influenced by the feeding treatments. Fish within the fed and st3d treatments were significantly larger and heavier than fish in the less well-fed treatments (f1pd, st1d). Similarly, concentrations of total lipid, carbohydrate and protein in the settled fish were significantly higher in the fed and st3d treatments compared with the st1d and f1pd treatments. For all these morphological and biochemical attributes the st1d and f1pd fish did not significantly differ from the field fishes, but did differ from the fed and st3d fishes. Water content was significantly higher in the f1pd, st1d and field fishes compared with the fed and st3d fish. Furthermore, the average time taken to settle followed the pattern: fed (14d)U. tragula are physiologically well suited to exploiting a patchy food source, and that food availability within the pelagic stages can have a major influence on the growth characteristics of this reef fish at settlement. The ramifications of this finding are discussed in relation to survival and success once fish have recruited to the reef population.     

Systemic retention of ingested cantharidin by frogs

Summary Frogs(Rana pipiens) fed on blister beetles (Meloidae) or cantharidin, retain cantharidin systemically. After cessation of feeding, they void the compound relatively quickly. Systemic cantharidin does not protect frogs against ectoparasitic feeding by leeches(Hirudo medicinalis) or predation by snakes(Nerodia sipedon). As suggested by our data, and from reports in the early literature, ingestion of cantharidin-containing frogs can pose a health threat to humans.Paper no. 95 of the seriesDefense Mechanisms of Arthropods; no. 94 is LaMunyon & Eisner, Psyche (in press)     

Implications of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein elevation caused by transabdominal and transcervical CVS

Of 2882 women allocated to either transabdominal CVS (TA) or transcervical CVS (TC) at two large obstetric centres in Denmark, 2707 had blood samples drawn before and 30 min after CVS for maternal serum-alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) measurement. 2535 of these women had cytogenetically normal pregnancies and 2091 of them went on to have samples drawn at the 18–20 week follow-up. Post-procedure MSAFP values were correlated to the biopsy method used, with mean MSAFP values significantly higher after TA than TC, 33 and 15 kU/l, respectively (P<0·001). Following TA procedures, 18 per cent of cases had feto-maternal transfusion higher than 0·1 ml; this occurred in only 5 per cent of TC cases. MSAFP levels were associated with spontaneous fetal loss in the TA group but not in the TC group. TC, however, was followed by more losses than TA. The post-CVS MSAFP value was positively correlated with the amount of villi aspirated. The difference in post-procedure elevation in MSAFP 30 min later (average 18 kU/l higher for TA than for TC) was not reflected in raised levels at the 18–20 week follow-up. Study medians at mid-trimester did not differ from reference group medians established from a group of singleton pregnancies with sonographically determined gestational age who did not experience invasive procedures and delivered normal infants. Our findings suggest that CVS does not compromise mid-trimester MSAFP for screening for neural tube defects (NTDs). Extremely high mid-trimester MSAFP values in the TC group could predict imminent loss.     

Idle emissions from heavy-duty diesel and natural gas vehicles at high altitude

Idle emissions of total hydrocarbon (THC), CO, NOx, and particulate matter (PM) were measured from 24 heavy-duty diesel-fueled (12 trucks and 12 buses) and 4 heavy-duty compressed natural gas (CNG)-fueled vehicles. The volatile organic fraction (VOF) of PM and aldehyde emissions were also measured for many of the diesel vehicles. Experiments were conducted at 1609 m above sea level using a full exhaust flow dilution tunnel method identical to that used for heavy-duty engine Federal Test Procedure (FTP) testing. Diesel trucks averaged 0.170 g/min THC, 1.183 g/min CO, 1.416 g/min NOx, and 0.030 g/min PM. Diesel buses averaged 0.137 g/min THC, 1.326 g/min CO, 2.015 g/min NOx, and 0.048 g/min PM. Results are compared to idle emission factors from the MOBILE5 and PART5 inventory models. The models significantly (45-75%) overestimate emissions of THC and CO in comparison with results measured from the fleet of vehicles examined in this study. Measured NOx emissions were significantly higher (30-100%) than model predictions. For the pre-1999 (pre-consent decree) truck engines examined in this study, idle NOx emissions increased with model year with a linear fit (r2 = 0.6). PART5 nationwide fleet average emissions are within 1 order of magnitude of emissions for the group of vehicles tested in this study. Aldehyde emissions for bus idling averaged 6 mg/min. The VOF averaged 19% of total PM for buses and 49% for trucks. CNG vehicle idle emissions averaged 1.435 g/min for THC, 1.119 g/min for CO, 0.267 g/min for NOx, and 0.003 g/min for PM. The g/min PM emissions are only a small fraction of g/min PM emissions during vehicle driving. However, idle emissions of NOx, CO, and THC are significant in comparison with driving emissions.     

Towards a more appropriate water based extraction for the assessment of organic contaminant availability

This study correlated extractabilities of 37 d aged phenanthrene residues in four dissimilar soils with the fraction that was available for earthworm (Lumbricus rubellus) accumulation and microorganism (Pseudomonas sp.) mineralisation. Extractability was determined using two established techniques, namely, (1) a water based extraction using CO(2) equilibrated water and (2) an aqueous based hydroxypropyl-beta-cyclodextrin (HPCD) extraction. Results showed no relationship between earthworm accumulation and phenanthrene extractability using either HPCD (r(2)=0.07; slope=-4.76; n=5) or the water based extraction (r(2)=0.31; slope=-5.34; n=5). Earthworm accumulation was overestimated by both techniques. In contrast, the fraction of phenanthrene extractable using both the HPCD technique and the water based extraction correlated strongly with microbial mineralisation. However, the slopes of these linear relationships were 0.48 (r(2)=0.96; n=10), and 0.99 (r(2)=0.88; n=10) for the water based extraction and HPCD, respectively. Thus, the HPCD extraction provided values that were numerically close to the mineralisation values, whilst the water based extraction values were approximately half the mineralisation values. It is submitted that HPCD extraction provided an appropriate method of assessing the fraction of contaminant available for microbial mineralisation in these dissimilar soils.