Algorithms and models for decision making in advanced technology systems

Environment Systems and Decisions -     

Sensitivity of Indices of Biotic Integrity to Simulated Fish Assemblage Changes

Multimetric indices of biotic integrity (IBIs) are commonly used to assess condition of stream fish assemblages, but their ability to monitor trends within streams over time is largely unknown. We assessed the trend detection ability of two IBI formulations (one with traditional scoring and metrics, and one with nontraditional scoring and region-specific metrics) and of similarity and diversity indices using simulations that progressively altered the fish assemblages of 39 streams in the United States mid-Atlantic Highlands region. We also assessed responses to simulated 50% variability in fish abundances, as a measure of background noise. Fish assemblage indices responded little to changes that affected all species proportionally despite substantial changes in total fish number. Assemblage indices responded better to scenarios that differentially affected fish species, either according to life history traits or by increasing dominance of already common species, but even these changes took some time to detect relative to background variability levels. Ordinations of stream fish assemblage data suggested that differences among sites were maintained even after substantial alterations of fish composition within sites. IBIs are designed to detect broad assemblage differences among sites while downplaying abundance changes and variability increases that were the first indications of within-site changes, and they appear more suited to detecting large departures from natural fish assemblages than for monitoring gradual changes such as those our simulations produced. Inferences about causes of assemblage changes should be made with caution because of correlations among species traits and interdependence among IBI component metrics. Site trend assessments should be made based on all available data rather than just by summary indices.     

INTERSTATE WATER ALLOCATION COMPACTS IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES - SOME SUGGESTIONS1

ABSTRACT: Agreements between states, or compacts, provide a mechanism for resolving transboundary resource issues. The twenty-two compacts allocating the water of rivers among states in the western United States are examined to provide guidance for drafters of future compacts. The method of allocation selected for a compact reflects the state's allocation of the risk of dry years. Allocations based on models have been unsuccessful. Percentage allocations are good for fairly apportioning risk, but conflict with principles of prior appropriation. Guarantees of minimum flows should be used with great care, to avoid any state becoming a guarantor of natural phenomena over which it has no control. Disputes should be anticipated, and a dispute resolution mechanism agreed upon. Arbitration or litigation are likely to prove the most politically acceptable. Compacts should be comprehensive in scope, encompassing groundwater as well as surface use. Federal claims should also be addressed, and some form of protection from subsequent changes of federal policy should be incorporated in the agreement and its ratifying legislation.     

Agricultural BMP Effectiveness and Dominant Hydrological Flow Paths: Concepts and a Review

We present a conceptual framework that relates agricultural best management practice (BMP) effectiveness with dominant hydrological flow paths to improve nonpoint source (NPS) pollution management. We use the framework to analyze plot, field and watershed scale published studies on BMP effectiveness to develop transferable recommendations for BMP selection and placement at the watershed scale. The framework is based on the location of the restrictive layer in the soil profile and distinguishes three hydrologic land types. Hydrologic land type A has the restrictive layer at the surface and BMPs that increase infiltration are effective. In land type B1, the surface soil has an infiltration rate greater than the prevailing precipitation intensity, but there is a shallow restrictive layer causing lateral flow and saturation excess overland flow. Few structural practices are effective for these land types, but pollutant source management plans can significantly reduce pollutant loading. Hydrologic land type B2 has deep, well‐draining soils without restrictive layers that transport pollutants to groundwater via percolation. Practices that increased pollutant residence time in the mixing layer or increased plant water uptake were found as the most effective BMPs in B2 land types. Matching BMPs to the appropriate land type allows for better targeting of hydrologically sensitive areas within a watershed, and potentially more significant reductions of NPS pollutant loading.     

Streamflow Responses to Climate Change: Analysis of Hydrologic Indicators in a New York City Water Supply Watershed

Recent works have indicated that climate change in the northeastern United States is already being observed in the form of shorter winters, higher annual average air temperature, and more frequent extreme heat and precipitation events. These changes could have profound effects on aquatic ecosystems, and the implications of such changes are less understood. The objective of this study was to examine how future changes in precipitation and temperature translate into changes in streamflow using a physically based semidistributed model, and subsequently how changes in streamflow could potentially impact stream ecology. Streamflow parameters were examined in a New York City water supply watershed for changes from model‐simulated baseline conditions to future climate scenarios (2081‐2100) for ecologically relevant factors of streamflow using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations tool. Results indicate that earlier snowmelt and reduced snowpack advance the timing and increase the magnitude of discharge in the winter and early spring (November‐March) and greatly decrease monthly streamflow later in the spring in April. Both the rise and fall rates of the hydrograph will increase resulting in increased flashiness and flow reversals primarily due to increased pulses during winter seasons. These shifts in timing of peak flows, changes in seasonal flow regimes, and changes in the magnitudes of low flow can all influence aquatic organisms and have the potential to impact stream ecology.     

Social facilitation of selective mortality

Territorial defense by breeders influences access to resources near defended nest sites by intruder species and may have indirect effects on other species within the territory, leading to local patchiness in distribution patterns. The present study demonstrates that adult males of a damselfish, Pomacentrus amboinensis, indirectly facilitate the increased survival of conspecific juveniles through the territorial defense of their nesting site from potential egg predators. Moreover, male territoriality results in a shift in the selectivity of predation on newly settled juveniles. We monitored the fate of pairs of predator-naive, newly settled P. amboinensis placed inside and outside nesting territories. Individuals within a pair differed in size by approximately 1 mm and were tagged for individual identification. Away from male territories larger juveniles had greater survival, while within territories, larger juveniles suffered higher mortality. Behavioral observations indicated that the moonwrasse Thalassoma lunare, a predator of benthic eggs and small fishes, had reduced access to juveniles within male territories, while another predator on small fishes, the dottyback Pseudochromis fuscus, had unobstructed access to male territories. Experimental removal of P. fuscus indicated that the shift in the direction of phenotypic selection on newly settled juveniles was the indirect effect of aggression by nest-guarding male damselfish, which resulted in differential access to male territories by these two predators of small fishes. Evidence suggests that behavioral interactions between the resident community and intruders will influence patchiness in selective pressures imposed on benthic prey by influencing both the composition of predator types that can access the prey resource and their relative abundance. How this spatial and temporal patchiness in predator pressure interacts with spatial patchiness of recruiting prey will have a major influence on the resulting distribution of juveniles and their phenotypic traits.