中国虚拟水贸易的测算及影响因素研究

本文测算2005年、2007年与2010年3个年度中国虚拟水进出口贸易量,采用投入产出及IO-SDA等方法分解分析其变化的影响因素。研究结果显示部门间用水系数差距都非常大,直接用水系数最大的农业部门857.9 t/万元(3年平均值,下同),与直接用水系数最小的部门差距达600倍之多。完全用水系数最大的也为农业部门1 078.7 t/万元,与完全用水系数最小的部门亦达113倍。各部门的完全用水系数和直接用水系数也存在较大不同,有些部门完全用水系数和直接用水系数差距很大,如服装皮革羽绒及其制品业部门差距达115倍,食品制造及烟草加工业部门差距达618.5 t/万元;而有些部门差距非常小,如农业部门差距仅仅0.24倍,煤炭开采和洗选业部门差距仅为8.2 t/万元。虚拟水出口量和进口量分别从2005年的1 774.3亿t和1 378.7亿t增加到2010年的2 254.1亿t和1 836.5亿t,且出口量一直大于进口量。影响因素分解显示,在此期间,进出口规模的增加是虚拟水贸易量增加的主要影响因素,其中出口规模合计为103 698.8×10~6t,进口规模合计为80 401.2×10~6t。进出口贸易结构的影响在不同部门间存在较大的差异。真实用水系数和真实中间投入技术是虚拟水贸易变化的主要负向因素,其中真实用水系数对虚拟水出口与进口的影响分别为-36 793.2×10~6t和-34 668.3×10~6t,真实中间投入技术对虚拟水出口与进口的影响分别为-1 719.7×10~6t和-1 660.8×10~6t,表明在此期间用水效率和中间投入效率都得到了改善。另外,直接用水系数和中间投入技术分解出的结构效应都不明显,中间投入进口比率效应也不明显。     

上海港对间接腹地经济的作用研究——基于资本路径和物流路径

资本流和物流作为海港对间接腹地经济作用的载体,可以根据其作用路径进行详细分析。通过尝试性地建立面板数据模型,分析海港资本作用枢纽—物流园区、支线港和无水港对间接腹地经济的影响,结合海港对作用枢纽的影响力算法,研究得出上海港通过资本路径对间接腹地生产总值的产出弹性为0.058 6。通过物流路径的系统动力学分析对SD流图进行描述,结合Eviews软件设定各要素的数学方程,选择上海港进行仿真分析,并用历史数据对模型进行检验,误差在可接受的范围之内。进一步对系统进行短期预测,结合预测的结果发现货物运输对间接腹地经济作用的弹性约为0.7。最后分别对上海港主要的吞吐货种进行系统仿真,发现集装箱和石油、天然气及制品的物流运输对间接腹地经济影响最大。     

长江中游城市群空间联系研究

基于城市流强度模型和城市间相互作用模型,以长江中游城市群27个地级市为研究对象,分析了城市群内的城市辐射能力及其内在的经济联系。结果表明:(1)长江中游城市群整体集聚和辐射能力较弱,区域内中低级城市流强度的城市占多数;(2)城市群内第二、三产业辐射能力存在较大差异,第二产业呈现出较强的辐射能力,而第三产业辐射能力较弱,并且其空间分布相对较为分散;(3)区域中心城市的核心带动作用总体较弱,辐射范围和辐射强度都有待加强;(4)长江中游城市群内城市间空间联系不够紧密,且联系程度空间差异较大。省际城市之间联系贫乏,城市间尚未形成联系紧密的辐射网络。     

近60a长三角地区极端高温事件变化特征及其对城市化的响应

基于长三角地区1951~2014年56个国家级气象站点逐日气温记录资料,通过计算极端高温事件相关指标(极端最高温TXx,极端最低温TNn,高温日数Htd和低温日数Ltd),利用GIS空间分析技术和Mann-Kendall时间趋势分析方法分析了长三角地区近60 a极端高温事件的空间分异特征和时间变化趋势,并探讨了城市化发展对区域极端高温事件时空变异的影响。结果表明:(1)长三角地区极端高温事件指标均表现为一定的上升趋势,极端低温指标(TNn和Ltd)线性变化趋势比极端高温指标(TXx和Htd)更为显著,变化趋势最显著的地区集中在经济和城市化水平较高的城市及周边地区(如上海、杭州等)。(2)极端高温指标(TXx和Htd)多年平均总体表现为南高北低,西高东低的趋势,而极端低温指标中TNn多年平均为由中部向南北两侧降低,Ltd多年平均呈现自中部向南北南侧增多的趋势。(3)从1990~2000到2000~2010年,城市化对极端高温事件的影响增强,快速城市化对北部城市极端高温事件的影响高于南部城市。     

A highly resolved temporal and spatial air pollutant emission inventory for the Pearl River Delta region, China and its uncertainty assessment

A highly resolved temporal and spatial Pearl River Delta (PRD) regional emission inventory for the year 2006 was developed with the use of best available domestic emission factors and activity data. The inventory covers major emission sources in the region and a bottom–up approach was adopted to compile the inventory for those sources where possible. The results show that the estimates for SO₂, NO_x, CO, PM₁₀, PM_2.5 and VOC emissions in the PRD region for the year 2006 are 711.4 kt, 891.9 kt, 3840.6 kt, 418.4 kt, 204.6 kt, and 1180.1 kt, respectively. About 91.4% of SO₂ emissions were from power plant and industrial sources, and 87.2% of NO_x emissions were from power plant and mobile sources. The industrial, mobile and power plant sources are major contributors to PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 emissions, accounting for 97.7% of the total PM₁₀ and 97.2% of PM_2.5 emissions, respectively. Mobile, biogenic and VOC product-related sources are responsible for 90.5% of the total VOC emissions. The emissions are spatially allocated onto grid cells with a resolution of 3 km × 3 km, showing that anthropogenic air pollutant emissions are mainly distributed over PRD central-southern city cluster areas. The preliminary temporal profiles were established for the power plant, industrial and on-road mobile sources. There is relatively low uncertainty in SO₂ emission estimates with a range of −16% to +21% from power plant sources, medium to high uncertainty for the NO_x emissions, and high uncertainties in the VOC, PM_2.5, PM₁₀ and CO emissions.     

降低FCC再生烟气NOx排放助剂的实验室评价

通过采用ACE装置与烟气NOx分析仪器联用的实验室评价方法,可在更接近实际催化裂化反应-再生过程的条件下,评价助剂对再生烟气中NOx的催化转化性能,同时还可考察助剂的加入对催化裂化产品分布的影响。采用该方法对几种降NOx助剂的性能进行了评价,结果表明,在催化剂体系中含有Pt基CO助燃剂的情况下,加入4％的RDNO;助剂后,烟气NOx降低幅度约30％～40％,且催化裂化产品分布基本不受影响。     

负载TiO2浮石对污水处理厂二沉池出水的矿化与灭菌研究

城市污水处理厂第二沉淀池出水的污染物浓度较低,经过矿化及灭菌等深度处理后可以回用,从而减轻对淡水资源的需求。本实验采用溶胶-凝胶法制备了负载TiO2的浮石光催化剂,对城市污水处理厂第二沉淀池出水进行了矿化及灭菌处理研究。采用低压汞灯对处理水样照射2h,有机物降解率可以达到50％,灭菌效率达到100％。处理后的水可以作为农作物灌溉、城市绿化和娱乐用水。负载在浮石表面的TiO2薄膜经过10次的光催化循环实验后,没有明显破损,可以再次循环使用。TiO2浮石具有质轻、机械性能好和价格低等优点,该方法处理废水的适用浓度低,可以广泛应用于微污染水和城市污水处理厂出水的深度处理。     

碱激发胶凝材料及其固化Pb^2＋的试验研究

对碱激胶凝材料（碱-偏高岭土、碱-矿渣和碱-粉煤灰）与水-水泥体系固化Ph^2＋进行了试验研究,其中水-水泥体系为对比样。结果表明：对于相同稠度的碱激发胶凝材料,即使Pb^2＋含量达到2．4％,除了碱-粉煤灰的抗压强度略低外,其他都达到30MPa以上,满足填埋或做建筑基材的使用要求;与水泥相比,碱激发胶凝材料能显著降低重金属离子（Ph^2＋）浸出浓度,其规律性与其NH4交换容量大小的规律性一致,与其固化体的抗压强度的大小没有相关性。     

Characterization of PM2.5-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Atlanta—Seasonal variations at urban,suburban, and rural ambient air monitoring sites

Twenty-eight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and methylated PAHs (Me-PAH) were measured in daily PM_2.5 samples collected at an urban site, a suburban site, and a rural site in and near Atlanta during 2004 (5 samples/month/site). The suburban site, located near a major highway, had higher PM_2.5-bound PAH concentrations than did the urban site, and the rural site had the lowest PAH levels. Monthly variations are described for concentrations of total PAHs (∑PAHs) and individual PAHs. PAH concentrations were much higher in cold months than in warm months, with average monthly ∑PAH concentrations at the urban and suburban-highway monitoring sites ranging from 2.12 to 6.85 ng m^?3 during January–February and November–December 2004, compared to 0.38–0.98 ng m^?3 during May–September 2004. ∑PAH concentrations were found to be well correlated with PM_2.5 and organic carbon (OC) within seasons, and the fractions of PAHs in PM_2.5 and OC were higher in winter than in summer. Methyl phenanthrenes were present at higher levels than their un-substituted homologue (phenanthrene), suggesting a petrogenic (unburned petroleum products) input. Retene, a proposed tracer for biomass burning, peaked in March, the month with the highest acreage and frequency of prescribed burning and unplanned fires, and in December, during the high residential wood-burning season, indicating that retene might be a good marker for burning of all biomass materials. In contrast, potassium peaked only in December, indicating that it might be a more specific tracer for wood-burning.     

An observational study of the HONO–NO2 coupling at an urban site in Guangzhou City,South China

The temporal behavior of HONO and NO₂ was investigated at an urban site in Guangzhou city, China, by means of a DOAS system during the Pearl River Delta 2006 intensive campaign from 10 to 24 July 2006. Within the whole measurement period, unexpected high HONO mixing ratios up to 2 ppb were observed even during the day. A nocturnal maximum concentration of about 8.43 ± 0.4 ppb was detected on the night of 24 July 2006. Combining the data simultaneously observed by different instruments, the coupling of HONO–NO₂ and the possible formation sources of HONO are discussed. During the measurement period, concentration ratios of HONO to NO₂ ranged from (0.03 ± 0.1) to (0.37 ± 0.09), which is significantly higher than previously reported values (0.01–0.1). Surprisingly, in most cases a strong daytime correlation between HONO and NO₂ was found, contrary to previous observations in China. Aerosol was found to have a minor impact on HONO formation during the whole measurement period. Using a pseudo steady state approach for interpreting the nocturnal conversion of NO₂ to HONO suggests a non-negligible role of the relative humidity for the heterogeneous HONO formation from NO₂.