PM2.5 characterization of primary and secondary organic aerosols in two urban-industrial areas in the East Mediterranean

Primary and secondary organic aerosols in PM_2.5 were investigated over a one-year campaign at Zouk Mikael and Fiaa, Lebanon. The n-alkanes concentrations were quite similar at both sites (26-29 ng/m³) and mainly explained by anthropogenic emissions rather than natural ones. The concentrations of total Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) were nearly three times higher at Zouk Mikael (2.56 ng/m³) compared to Fiaa (0.95 ng/m³), especially for indeno[1,2,3-c,d]pyrene linked to the presence of the power plant. A characteristic indeno[1,2,3-c,d]pyrene/(indeno[1,2,3-c,d]pyrene + benzo[g,h,i]perylene) ratio in the range 0.8-1.0 was determined for heavy fuel oil combustion from the power plant. Fatty acids and hopanes were also investigated and were assigned to cooking activities and vehicular emissions respectively. Phthalates were identified for the first time in Lebanon with high concentrations at Zouk and Fiaa (106.88 and 97.68 ng/m³ respectively). Moreover, the biogenic secondary aerosols revealed higher concentrations in summer. The total terpene concentration varied between 131 ng/m³ at Zouk Mikael in winter to 469 ng/m³ at Fiaa in summer. Additionnally, the concentrations of the dicarboxylic acids especially for adipic and phthalic acids were more influenced by anthropogenic sources.The analysis of molecular markers and diagnostic ratios indicated that the sites were strongly affected by anthropogenic sources such as waste open burning, diesel private generators, cooking activities, road transport, power plant, and industrial emissions. Moreover, results showed different pattern during winter and summer seasons. Whereas, higher concentrations of biogenic markers were clearly encountered during the summer period.     

Low-Carbon Policy Making vs. Low-Carbon Policy Modelling: State-of-the-Art and Challenges

This paper surveys the use made of modelling expertise in the recent literature focused on the policy making of low-carbon societies in Europe, both peer-reviewed and ‘grey’. The first section focuses on the prominent policy instrument of carbon pricing. It starts by analysing the somewhat confusing use made of carbon pricing modelling in policy reports emanating from the French and British governments, then reviews some modelling results on carbon pricing in a ‘second best’ world. The second section lists the impressive collection of more focused policy instruments that are advocated in both governmental and non-governmental literature. It insists on the contrast between the high degree of precision of some of these policy proposals and the limited modelling of their impacts, either from an environmental or an economic point of view. The third section concludes on recommendations to the policy modelling community inspired by this survey. Purposely avoiding the current controversies surrounding cost–benefit analysis, it advocates further applied research on the cost efficiency of carbon pricing trajectories (when flexibility); on the terra incognita beyond first best uniform pricing (where flexibility); on the elicitation of policy overlaps; and on the modelling of extended policy portfolios in comprehensive, consistent modelling frameworks.     

Combining Stochastic Optimization and Monte Carlo Simulation to Deal with Uncertainties in Climate Policy Assessment

In this paper, we explore the impact of several sources of uncertainties on the assessment of energy and climate policies when one uses in a harmonized way stochastic programming in a large-scale bottom-up (BU) model and Monte Carlo simulation in a large-scale top-down (TD) model. The BU model we use is the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model, which is run in a stochastic programming version to provide a hedging emission policy to cope with the uncertainty characterizing climate sensitivity. The TD model we use is the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3. Through Monte Carlo simulations of randomly generated uncertain parameter values, one provides a stochastic micro- and macro-economic analysis. Through statistical analysis of the simulation results, we analyse the impact of the uncertainties on the policy assessment.     

Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling of plant colonisation by winged aphids: Inferring dispersal processes by linking aerial and field count data

Understanding and modelling insect pest dispersal is an important prerequisite for designing integrated pest management programs. Nevertheless, studies investigating the dispersal of small insects in natural conditions remain scarce mainly because of the difficulty of tracking the movements of these organisms. Here we propose to use Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling (HBM) framework to gain knowledge on hidden processes that cannot be observed directly in natura, such as insect landing and insect mortality, through the definition of latent variables. An HBM describing crop colonization by winged aphids was fitted to a large dataset of field observations issued from a long term survey at a wide scale of both aerial and field densities of the bird cherry-oat aphid Rhopalosiphum padi. This study provides the first evidence that suction trap data are reliable proxies of aphid colonizing rates in cereal fields in autumn and can be a nice alternative to the very time-consuming crop sampling. The proportion of winged aphids landing in cereal fields is shown to vary between regions according to the degree of investment of local R. padi population in sexual reproduction. Results also indicate that under autumnal field conditions, less than 5% of winged aphids survive more than 10 days after landing. This HBM provides the basis of a predictive model for aphid crop colonization that fully accounts for all sources of uncertainty. It should be of great value to improve the trust of users in any decision making systems.     

Match/mismatch between the Mytilus edulis larval supply and seston quality: effect on recruitment

We considered Cushing's match/mismatch theory in a heterotrophic environment and hypothesized that settlement and recruitment success in blue mussel are higher when the food supply is rich in polyunsaturated and essential fatty acids (PUFA/EFA). To test this hypothesis, we monitored larval development as well as fatty acid composition in trophic resources during two successive reproductive seasons. The decoupling we found between the presence of competent larvae in the water column and settlement rates strongly suggests that metamorphosis is delayed until conditions are suitable. In both years, the major mussel settlement peak was synchronized with a phytoplanktonic pulse rich in EFA, consisting of a large autotrophic bloom in 2007 and a short but substantial peak of picoeukaryotes in 2008. These results suggest a "trophic settlement trigger" that indirectly affects recruitment by strongly improving the settlement rate. Despite similar larval settlement rates during both years, the lower 2007 recruitment likely resulted from a mismatch with a high lipid-quality trophic resource. The seasonal trophic conditions differed greatly between the two years, with fatty acids profiles reflecting heterotrophic plankton production in 2007 and mostly autotrophic production in 2008. In agreement with Cushing's theory, our results highlight a match/mismatch, related to the food lipid quality rather than food quantity. For the first time, we show that the recruitment in marine bivalves may be dependent on phytoplanktonic pulses characterized by high levels of PUFA.     

How the diversity of human concepts of nature affects conservation of biodiversity

Protecting nature has become a global concern. However, the very idea of nature is problematic. We examined the etymological and semantic diversity of the word used to translate nature in a conservation context in 76 of the primary languages of the world to identify the different relationships between humankind and nature. Surprisingly, the number of morphemes (distinct etymological roots) used by 7 billion people was low. Different linguistic superfamilies shared the same etymon across large cultural areas that correlate with the distribution of major religions. However, we found large differences in etymological meanings among these words, echoing the semantic differences and historical ambiguity of the contemporary European concept of nature. The principal current Western meaning of nature in environmental public policy, conservation science, and environmental ethics–that which is not a human artifact–appears to be relatively rare and recent and to contradict the vision of nature in most other cultures, including those of pre-Christian Europe. To avoid implicit cultural bias and hegemony–and thus to be globally intelligible and effective–it behooves nature conservationists to take into account this semantic diversity when proposing conservation policies and implementing conservation practices.     

Antagonistic effect of natural habitat conversion on community adjustment to climate warming in nonbreeding waterbirds

Although the impacts of climate and land-use changes on biodiversity have been widely documented, their joint effects remain poorly understood. We evaluated how nonbreeding waterbird communities adjust to climate warming along a gradient of land-use change. Using midwinter waterbird counts (132 species) at 164 major nonbreeding sites in 22 Mediterranean countries, we assessed the changes in species composition from 1991 to 2010, relative to thermal niche position and breadth, in response to regional and local winter temperature anomalies and conversion of natural habitats. We observed a low-level, nonsignificant community adjustment to the temperature increase where natural habitat conversion occurred. At the sites affected by natural habitat conversion, the relative increase of warm-dwelling species in response to climate warming was 6 times lower and the relative species decline was 3 times higher than in the sites without natural habitat conversion. We found no evidence of community adjustment to climate warming when natural habitat conversion was >5% over 15 years. This strong negative effect suggests an antagonistic interaction between climate warming and habitat change. These results underline the importance of habitat conservation in community adjustment to climate warming.     

Temporal signatures of advective versus diffusive radon transport at a geothermal zone in Central Nepal

Temporal variation of radon-222 concentration was studied at the Syabru-Bensi hot springs, located on the Main Central Thrust zone in Central Nepal. This site is characterized by several carbon dioxide discharges having maximum fluxes larger than 10 kg m⁻² d⁻¹. Radon concentration was monitored with autonomous Barasol™ probes between January 2008 and November 2009 in two small natural cavities with high CO₂ concentration and at six locations in the soil: four points having a high flux, and two background reference points. At the reference points, dominated by radon diffusion, radon concentration was stable from January to May, with mean values of 22 ± 6.9 and 37 ± 5.5 kBq m⁻³, but was affected by a large increase, of about a factor of 2 and 1.6, respectively, during the monsoon season from June to September. At the points dominated by CO₂ advection, by contrast, radon concentration showed higher mean values 39.0 ± 2.6 to 78 ± 1.4 kBq m⁻³, remarkably stable throughout the year with small long-term variation, including a possible modulation of period around 6 months. A significant difference between the diffusion dominated reference points and the advection-dominated points also emerged when studying the diurnal S₁ and semi-diurnal S₂ periodic components. At the advection-dominated points, radon concentration did not exhibit S₁ or S₂ components. At the reference points, however, the S₂ component, associated with barometric tide, could be identified during the dry season, but only when the probe was installed at shallow depth. The S₁ component, associated with thermal and possibly barometric diurnal forcing, was systematically observed, especially during monsoon season. The remarkable short-term and long-term temporal stability of the radon concentration at the advection-dominated points, which suggests a strong pressure source at depth, may be an important asset to detect possible temporal variations associated with the seismic cycle.