Sampling strategies in the assessment of long‐term exposures to toxic substances in air

The decision to mitigate exposures from vapor intrusion (VI) is typically based on limited data from 24‐hour air samples. It is well documented that these data do not accurately represent long‐term average exposures linked to adverse health effects. Limited decision guidance is currently available to determine the most appropriate sampling strategy, considering the cost of sampling alternatives along with the economic consequences of exposure‐related health effects. We present a decision model that introduces economic and statistical considerations in evaluating alternative VI sampling methods. The model characterizes the best sampling method by factoring economic and health consequences of exposure, the variability of exposure, the cost of sampling and mitigation, and the likelihood of false‐negatives and false‐positives. Decision‐makers can use results to select the sample size that maximizes net benefit. Conceptual and mathematical models are presented linking biological, statistical, and economic considerations to assess the cost and effectiveness of different sampling strategies. The model relates an average exposure concentration, determined statistically, to abatement costs and to the monetary value of health deterioration. The value of the information provided by different strategies is calculated and used to select the optimum sampling method. Simulations show that longer‐term sampling methods tend to be more accurate and cost‐effective than short‐term samples. The ideal sampling strategy shows significant seasonal variation (it is typically optimal to use longer samples in the winter) and also varies significantly with the stringency of regulatory standards. Longer‐term sample collection provides a more accurate representation of average VI exposure and reduces the likelihood of type I and type II errors. This reduces expected costs of mitigation and exposure (e.g., health consequences, legal and regulatory penalties), which in some cases can be quite significant. The model herein shows how these savings are balanced against the additional costs of longer‐term sampling.     

Violating the psychological contract: Not the exception but the norm

The occurrence and impact of psychological contract violations were studied among graduate management alumni (N = 128) who were surveyed twice, once at graduation (immediately following recruitment) and then two years later. Psychological contracts, reciprocal obligations in employment developed during and after recruitment, were reported by a majority of respondents (54.8 per cent) as having been violated by their employers. The impact of violations are examined using both quantitative and qualitative data. Occurrence of violations correlated positively with turnover and negatively with trust, satisfaction and intentions to remain.     

A study of the growth and decay of cigarette smoke NOx in ambient air under controlled conditions

The amount of NO₂ and NO produced by the machine smoking of cigarettes was determined for 15 commercial Canadian brands. Average yield of NO was 1.44 μmoles or about 13% of the average reported for American cigarettes. Levels of NO₂ were less than 12% of NO and were probably due to the oxidation of NO. In order to assess the contribution of tobacco smoke to levels of NO in ambient air, 5 brands of cigarettes were smoked in 27 cubic meter controlled environment room. Ventilation conditions were either 2.5 or 5.0 air changes per hour (ACH) and each experiment was replicated 3 times for a total of 30 experiments. Ventilation rates of 0.3 and 1.5 ACH were also selected in a second series of experiments in which only one brand of cigarette was smoked. Least squares estimates for the effective ventilation rates were obtained in the usual manner after linearizing the decay portion of the NO time curve. In each of the experiments, the regression explained at least 95% of the variation in the levels of NO with time. Loss of NO due to factors other than ventilation appeared to be constant within experimental error and averaged 2.22 ACH. Equilibrium values for NO were grossly underestimated when results from currently accepted proecedures for smoke analysis were used in modeling the growth and decay of NO. Goodness-of-fit was improved when equilibrium values were estimated based on observed levels in ambient air. This approach may be more suitable for evaluating the potential contribution of cigarette smoke to levels of indoor air pollutants.     

Insecticide Contamination of Jamaican Environment. V. Island-Wide Rapid Survey of Residues in Surface and Ground Water

Residues of organochlorines and organophosphates were determined by gas chromatography in water and sediment from 26 locations in 17 major rivers, 7 natural springs and 13 wells across Jamaica. Samples were collected on only one occasion between May and July, 1994. Residues of endosulfan were detected in all but three rivers; -endosulfan in 15 samples of sediment (0.9–108.1, mean = 28.93, S.E. = 7.198 g kg-1) and 13 of water (0.01–0.35, mean = 0.11, S.E. = 0.035 g L-1), -endosulfan in 5 sediment (15.29–49.35, mean = 30.56, S.E. = 7.132 g kg-1) and 12 water (0.05–0.31, mean = 0.14, S.E. = 0.031 g L-1) samples, and endosulfan sulphate in waters of three rivers (0.003–0.244 g L-1). Chlorpyrifos was present in 9 sediment (0.423-135.2, mean = 18.38, S.E. = 10.699 g kg-1) and two water (0.001–0.022 g L-1) samples, diazinon and ethoprophos in the sediment of one river each. Mean levels (g L-1) of and isomers and sulphate of endosulfan were 0.16 (S.E. = 0.057), 0.12 (S.E. = 0.036) and 0.15 (S.E. = 0.089), respectively, in four of the seven springs and 0.23 (S.E. = 0.052), 0.11 (S.E. = 0.029) and 0.26 (S.E. = 0.088), respectively, in seven of the thirteen wells monitored.     

Monitoring Carbon Sequestration Benefits Associated with a Reduced-Impact Logging Project in Malaysia

The Reduced-Impact Logging Project, a pilot carbon offset project, was initiated in 1992 when a power company provided funds to a timber concessionaire to implement timber-harvesting guidelines in dipterocarp forest. The rationale for the offset is that when logging damage is reduced, more, carbon is retained in living trees, and, because soil damage is minimized, forest productivity remains high. To estimate the carbon benefit associated with implementation of harvesting guidelines, a monitoring program was developed based on 1) field studies for measuring carbon stocks and flows; 2) a computer model of forest carbon dynamics for simulating various combinations of harvesting intensity and damage; and, 3) a projection model for calculating carbon balance over the project lifespan. Seventy-five percent of the carbon stored in this forest is in biomass, and of this, 59% is in large, trees (≧6- cm, diameter); consequently, reliable estimates of variables related to large trees are critical to the estimate of carbon benefits. Allometric methods for estimating belowground biomass are recommended over pit-sampling methods because of low cost-effectiveness of obtaining precise estimates of woody root biomass. Sensitivity analyses of variables used in the simulation model suggest that maintenance of ecosystem productivity has a large influence on long-term carbon storage in the forest. Projections of differences in carbon stores between the reduced-impact and conventional logging sites rely on assumptions about tree mortality, growth, and recruitment; published, data for comparable sites in Malaysia are probably appropriate for estimating forest recovery from conventional but not reduced-impact logging. Continuing field work is expected to provide the data needed to evaluate assumptions of the models.     

International Workshop on Sustainable Forestry Management: Monitoring and Verification of Greenhouse Gases - Summary Statement

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change -     

Adverse outcome in pregnancy following amniotic fluid isolation of Ureaplasma urealyticum

Infections in pregnancy with Ureaplasma urealyticum have been associated with a wide range of adverse outcomes, such as early abortion, stillbirth, prematurity, and neonatal morbidity and mortality. Causality has been difficult to demonstrate secondary to the high prevalence of asymptomatic lower genital tract (LGT) colonization and culture data from inaccessible or potentially contaminated sites. Between 1985 and 1989, 2461 second-trimester genetic amniocenteses were evaluated at the cytogenetics section of the Children's Hospital Medical Center of Akron. All were cultured for the genital mycoplasmas: Mycoplasma hominis and Ureaplasma urealyticum. A total of nine patients were positive, all for Ureaplasma urealyticum, with one patient excluded because of subsequent therapeutic abortion. In addition, complete follow-up data, such as indication for amniocentesis, serum alpha-fetoprotein levels, gestational age at parturition, and out- come of pregnancy, were available on 86 Ureaplasma-negative (U –) patients during an approximate 2-year span within the time-frame of the study. This was in part due to physician response to a questionnaire sent after amniocentesis. Of the eight positive cultures, 100 per cent were associated with an adverse outcome, defined as fetal loss or premature delivery. This was significant compared with the U–group (p<0.001) with a more than eight times greater risk of adverse outcome. Six (75 per cent) resulted in spontaneous miscarriage within 4 weeks of amniocentesis and at less than 21 weeks' gestation. Two (25 per cent) delivered prematurely, with one (12.5 per cent) neonatal death at 24+ weeks. Histological examination of all eight placentae and the seven fetuses revealed a 100 per cent incidence of chorioamnionitis and pneumonia, respectively. In addition, in four of the five cases (80 per cent), cultures were positive for Ureaplasma urealyticum in pure culture from either placenta, fetal lung, or both tissues. The remaining case (20 per cent) was negative for aerobes, anaerobes, and mycoplasmas. The study demonstrates a significant association and supports a causal relationship between isolation of Ureaplasma from mid-trimester amniotic fluid with fetal wastage and premature birth.     

Rare non-mosaic trisomies in chorionic villus tissue not confirmed at amniocentesis

This paper reports eight cases of non-mosaic, rare, and typically lethal trisomies diagnosed in chorionic villi and not confirmed by amniocentesis. Four cases were 47,XX, + 16; two cases were 47,XX, +2; one was 47,XX, + 12; and one was 47,XY, +7. There have been no known complications in any of these gestations. These eight cases were found in a series of approximately 12 000 samples processed in our laboratory (0.07 per cent). We conclude that (1) rare non-mosaic trisomy not reflecting the fetal condition is an occasional source of diagnostic ambiguity in chorionic villus sampling; and (2) when encountered, a follow-up amniocentesis should be recommended to the patient to confirm or rule out the abnormality. We propose the term ‘confined placental abnormality’ to describe non-mosaic trisomies and other related abnormalities found only in chorionic tissue.