Analysis of coupled model uncertainties in source-to-dose modeling of human exposures to ambient air pollution: A PM2.5 case study

Quantitative assessment of human exposures and health effects due to air pollution involve detailed characterization of impacts of air quality on exposure and dose. A key challenge is to integrate these three components on a consistent spatial and temporal basis taking into account linkages and feedbacks. The current state-of-practice for such assessments is to exercise emission, meteorology, air quality, exposure, and dose models separately, and to link them together by using the output of one model as input to the subsequent downstream model. Quantification of variability and uncertainty has been an important topic in the exposure assessment community for a number of years. Variability refers to differences in the value of a quantity (e.g., exposure) over time, space, or among individuals. Uncertainty refers to lack of knowledge regarding the true value of a quantity. An emerging challenge is how to quantify variability and uncertainty in integrated assessments over the source-to-dose continuum by considering contributions from individual as well as linked components. For a case study of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) in North Carolina during July 2002, we characterize variability and uncertainty associated with each of the individual concentration, exposure and dose models that are linked, and use a conceptual framework to quantify and evaluate the implications of coupled model uncertainties. We find that the resulting overall uncertainties due to combined effects of both variability and uncertainty are smaller (usually by a factor of 3–4) than the crudely multiplied model-specific overall uncertainty ratios. Future research will need to examine the impact of potential dependencies among the model components by conducting a truly coupled modeling analysis.     

Increased deposition of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) under an AC high-voltage power line

There is considerable public concern regarding the potential risks to health of electromagnetic fields in general and high-voltage power lines in particular. As epidemiological findings are not supported by a clearly defined mechanism of direct magnetic field interactions with the human body, potential indirect effects are of interest. It has been suggested that an increased exposure to chemical pollutants could occur near high-voltage power lines due to formation and deposition of charged aerosols. The current study reports empirical evidence that seems to support this hypothesis. The deposition of 18 congeners of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) was studied by collecting samples of pine needles under a 400 kV AC power line and at reference sites in the vicinity. Compared to the reference sites, the average deposition of PCB congeners under the power line was almost double. This difference between the two groups of samples was statistically significant. While it is premature to draw any conclusions regarding the human exposure near high-voltage power lines, the issue deserves attention and further investigations.     

An improved user-based beach climate index

In many coastal resort areas of the world, it is likely that optimal climatic conditions for beach use might occur outside the peak of the tourist season. Investigation of this issue together with associated publicity might help to spread the tourism load and hence reduce undesirable social and environmental effects of extreme seasonality in tourist demand. For this to take place, better knowledge of beach user preferences in terms of climate and bathing water temperature is required. Questionnaire surveys were carried out in Wales, Malta and Turkey to establish the preferences of north European beach users for thermal sensation and bathing water temperature, plus priority levels for other climatic attributes. A user-based beach climate index based on these preferences and priorities was formulated. Linkage was made between the user-generated ratings for various climatic conditions and published climate data to evaluate most major Euro-Mediterranean/Black Sea and a range of other beach tourism areas on a month-by-month basis. Results showed excessively hot thermal sensation in many southern and eastern Mediterranean coastal destinations during July and August, the present peak of the beach tourism season. Highest preference was given to water temperatures rather lower than those found in these areas during late summer. Many long haul coastal destinations popular with north European visitors had similar unpleasant thermal sensations over several months. Uncertainties and deficiencies still exist with the system, but from the point of view of north European beach users the final scores generated in this study may be regarded as good approximations of the quality of resort area climates for sedentary beach use.     

食品生产的可持续发展:猪肉生产情景的案例研究

为了研究未来的可持续生产系统,本文采用循序渐进的方法,基于不同可持续发展目标,设计了3种生猪生产情景.第一种情景集中考虑动物福利和动物的自然行为.第二种情景则以对环境影响最小,有效利用自然资源为目标.第三种情景以产品质量和安全为目标.每一种情景各自实现可持续发展不同方面的目标,但是这些目标存在着冲突,没有哪种情景能够实现所有的目标.之后,将情景参数化,使用生命周期评估(LCA)方法,计算各自对环境的影响,并用同一套数据计算经济成本.计算结果是,每公斤猪肉成本以动物福利情景最高,其它两种情景成本较为接近.环境情景的环境影响最低,产品质量情景的环境影响最大.最后,基于未来的不同优先序,讨论各个结果.     

评价农场尺度上养分和微量元素动态变化的一个系统方法:以(O)jebyn奶牛场的研究为例

通过把全面的农田试验和矿质风化释放养分以及微量元素循环具体研究结合起来,用一个系统分析方法来评价农场尺度上的养分和微量元素可持续性.为了比较有机和常规农业管理方式,在瑞典北部的Ojebyn奶牛场进行了一个包括磷、钾和锌在内的农场尺度上的实例研究.通过结合不同的元素平衡法(农场总体尺度、畜舍尺度和农田尺度)以及进一步把这些方法应用到FARMFLOw模型,我们能够把子系统内质量流和库结合起来并建立子系统之间联系,来进行农场尺度上的预测.研究发现农场内部的元素流动大,而且农场有内部源(锌)和损失项(钾).在Ojebyn奶牛场形成并得到验证的方法是很有前途的,认为可以应用到任何农场.     

A study on the potential sources of air pollutants observed at Tjörn,Sweden

The Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) receptor model combines both chemical and meteorological information. In this study, PSCF was employed to identify the potential source emission regions for aerosol compositions measured at Tjörn, Sweden (58.01 °N, 11.36 °E). PSCF was for the first time applied on a European scale. One hundred and fifty-two four-day air parcel backward trajectories were combined with concentrations of sixteen elements determined in 33 coarse and fine aerosol samples. The observations were made between February 17 and March 26, 1985. The modeling results of the heavy metals V, Pb, Zn, and As are presented and compared with available emission inventory data. A number of known industrialized regions in the former USSR and Europe are found of high potential to be the emission source areas. These areas are in good agreement with the known emission information. The PSCF maps of total sulfur, Non-Seasalt-Sulfur (N.S.S.) and chlorine are also presented. High potential regions in the Arctic area exist in the PSCF map for total sulfur wheres they do not occur in that for N.S.S.     

Effects of whole spine alignment patterns on neck responses in rear end impact

Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the whole spine alignment in automotive seated postures for both genders and the effects of the spinal alignment patterns on cervical vertebral motion in rear impact using a human finite element (FE) model.

Methods: Image data for 8 female and 7 male subjects in a seated posture acquired by an upright open magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) system were utilized. Spinal alignment was determined from the centers of the vertebrae and average spinal alignment patterns for both genders were estimated by multidimensional scaling (MDS). An occupant FE model of female average size (162 cm, 62 kg; the AF 50 size model) was developed by scaling THUMS AF 05. The average spinal alignment pattern for females was implemented in the model, and model validation was made with respect to female volunteer sled test data from rear end impacts. Thereafter, the average spinal alignment pattern for males and representative spinal alignments for all subjects were implemented in the validated female model, and additional FE simulations of the sled test were conducted to investigate effects of spinal alignment patterns on cervical vertebral motion.

Results: The estimated average spinal alignment pattern was slight kyphotic, or almost straight cervical and less-kyphotic thoracic spine for the females and lordotic cervical and more pronounced kyphotic thoracic spine for the males. The AF 50 size model with the female average spinal alignment exhibited spine straightening from upper thoracic vertebra level and showed larger intervertebral angular displacements in the cervical spine than the one with the male average spinal alignment.

Conclusions: The cervical spine alignment is continuous with the thoracic spine, and a trend of the relationship between cervical spine and thoracic spinal alignment was shown in this study. Simulation results suggested that variations in thoracic spinal alignment had a potential impact on cervical spine motion as well as cervical spinal alignment in rear end impact condition.