Comparing universal kriging and land-use regression for predicting concentrations of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air)

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies that assess the health effects of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution are used to inform public policy. These studies rely on exposure models that use data collected from pollution monitoring sites to predict exposures at subject locations. Land use regression (LUR) and universal kriging (UK) have been suggested as potential prediction methods. We evaluate these approaches on a dataset including measurements from three seasons in Los Angeles, CA. METHODS: The measurements of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) used in this study are from a "snapshot" sampling campaign that is part of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air). The measurements in Los Angeles were collected during three two-week periods in the summer, autumn, and winter, each with about 150 sites. The design included clusters of monitors on either side of busy roads to capture near-field gradients of traffic-related pollution. LUR and UK prediction models were created using geographic information system (GIS)-based covariates. Selection of covariates was based on 10-fold cross-validated (CV) R(2) and root mean square error (RMSE). Since UK requires specialized software, a computationally simpler two-step procedure was also employed to approximate fitting the UK model using readily available regression and GIS software. RESULTS: UK models consistently performed as well as or better than the analogous LUR models. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific UK models predicting log(NOx) were 0.75, 0.72, and 0.74 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.15) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific LUR models predicting log(NOx) were 0.74, 0.60, and 0.67 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.20, and 0.17). The two-stage approximation to UK also performed better than LUR and nearly as well as the full UK model with CV R(2) values 0.75, 0.70, and 0.70 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.17) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. CONCLUSION: High quality LUR and UK prediction models for NOx in Los Angeles were developed for the three seasons based on data collected for MESA Air. In our study, UK consistently outperformed LUR. Similarly, the 2-step approach was more effective than the LUR models, with performance equal to or slightly worse than UK.     

A temporal trend study (1972-2008) of perfluorooctanesulfonate, perfluorohexanesulfonate, and perfluorooctanoate in pooled human milk samples from Stockholm, Sweden

The widespread presence of perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS), perfluorooctanoate (PFOA), and perfluorohexanesulfonate (PFHxS) in human general populations and their slow elimination profiles have led to renewed interest in understanding the potential human neonatal exposures of perfluoroalkyls (PFAs) from consumption of human milk. The objective of this study was to evaluate the concentrations of PFOS, PFHxS, and PFOA in pooled human milk samples obtained in Sweden between 1972 and 2008 (a period representing the most significant period of PFA production) and to see whether the time trend of these analytes parallels that indicated in human serum. Chemical analysis of PFOS, PFHxS, and PFOA was performed on pooled Swedish human milk samples from 1972 to 2008 after methodological refinements. The 20 samples which formed the 2007 pool were also analyzed individually to evaluate sample variations. Analyses were performed by HPLC-MS/MS. Due to the complexities of the human milk matrix and the requirement to accurately quantitate low pg/mL concentrations, meticulous attention must be paid to background contamination if accurate results are to be obtained. PFOS was the predominant analyte present in the pools and all three analytes showed statistically significant increasing trends from 1972 to 2000, with concentrations reaching a plateau in the 1990s. PFOA and PFOS showed statistically significant decreasing trends during 2001-2008. At the end of the study, in 2008, the measured concentrations of PFOS, PFHxS, and PFOA in pooled human milk were 75 pg/mL, 14 pg/mL, and 74 pg/mL, respectively. The temporal concentration trends of PFOS, PFHxS, and PFOA observed in human milk are parallel to those reported in the general population serum concentrations.     

浅析报废汽车拆解厂废水循环处理技术的应用现状

报废汽车的回收拆解处理在我国已经逐渐兴起，但由于该产业尚处于发展初期，环保技术手段和可持续性发展意识还不够，因此在回收拆解过程中会产生大量的废水和其他污液。针对某汽车回收拆解厂的废水特性进行实验研究，形成“电荷凝集过滤一活性炭吸附”组合工艺，对报废汽车回收拆解企业的废水处理提供了一定的参考价值。     

科技标准司:态度积极、情绪饱满学习十七大精神

树靠人修,人靠自修。十七大精神内容博大精深、论述精辟有力,认真、深入学习十七大精神是每个党员的手头事、心中经。11月2日,国家环保总局科技标准司集体学习了十七大精神,与会党员、干部兴趣高昂、态度积极、情绪饱满、学习气氛既严肃又活跃。     

集中科研力量重点突破开创环境科技新局面——我国环保重点实验室和工程技术中心发展侧记

2007年9月,国家环保总局科技标准司在昆明高新区建立全国第一家"国家环境保护工业资源循环利用工程技术中心",这一建设将填补我国在工业资源循环利用领域综合研发机构的空白。环保工程技术中心将与总局创建的国家环保重点实验室一起为环境科技快速发展奠定了一定的基础。     

Linking Models of Land Use,Resources, and Economy to Simulate the Development of Mountain Regions (ALPSCAPE)

We present a framework of a scenario-based model that simulates the development of the municipality of Davos (Swiss Alps). We illustrate our method with the calculation of the scenario for 2050 “Decrease in subsidies for mountain agriculture and liberalization of markets.” The main objective was to link submodels of land-use allocation (regression-based approach), material and energy flows submodels (Material and Energy Flux Analysis), and economic submodels (Input–Output Analysis). Letting qualitative and quantitative information flow from one submodel to the next, following the storyline describing a scenario, has proven to be suitable for linking submodels. The succession of the submodels is then strongly dependent on the scenario. Qualitative information flows are simulated with microsimulations of actor choices. Links between the submodels show different degrees of robustness: although the links involving microsimulations are the weakest, the uncertainty introduced by the land-use allocation model is actually advantageous because it allows one possible change in the landscape in the future to be simulated. The modeling results for the scenario here presented show that the disappearance of agriculture only marginally affects the region’s factor income, but that the consequences for the self-sufficiency rate, for various landscape-related indicators and ecosystem services, and for the economy in the long term may be considerable. These benefits compensate for agriculture’s modest direct economic value. The framework presented can potentially be applied to any region and scenario. This framework provides a basis for a learning package that allows potential detrimental consequences of regional development to be anticipated at an early stage.     

天山天池景区道路灰尘磁学特性及其环境意义

为验证环境磁学方法监测和预测旅游景区道路灰尘环境的可行性,以新疆天山天池5A级旅游景区内道路灰尘为研究对象,共采集道路灰尘样品40个、道路旁表土样品35个,并对其进行环境磁学分析。结果表明,天山天池道路灰尘磁性主要由亚铁磁性的磁铁矿主导,含有少量不完全反铁磁性矿物,主要以多畴(MD)粗颗粒和稳定单畴(SSD)为主,伴有极少量的超顺磁性颗粒颗粒(SP);景区道路灰尘样品磁性增强与人为交通活动产生的磁性颗粒外源输入密切相关;从道路样品磁性参数的空间分布看,χLF、χARM、SIRM、SOFT的空间变化趋势类似,高值区位于民族文化村和纪念品商店,中值区出现在天山奇石馆,低值区分布在定海神针和秀水山庄。景区不同道路旅游交通的流量和强度是形成磁性特征空间分布格局的主因。研究发现,环境磁学方法基本具有大范围监测景区道路环境质量、圈定潜在污染范围和判别污染物来源的潜力,并能为景区道路交通污染防治提供了参考依据。