Global sensitivity analysis of a process-based model for ammonia emissions from manure storage and treatment structures

The development of process-based models to estimate ammonia emissions from animal feeding operations (AFOSs) is sought to replace costly and time-consuming direct measurements. Critical to process-based model development is conducting sensitivity analysis to determine the input parameters and their interactions that contribute most to the variance of the model output. Global and relative sensitivity analyses were applied to a process-based model for predicting ammonia emissions from the surface of anaerobic lagoons for treating and storing manure. The objectives were to compare global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to relative (local) sensitivity analysis (RSA) on a process-based model for ammonia emissions. Based on the first-order coefficient, both GSA and RSA showed the model input parameters in order of importance in process model for ammonia emissions from lagoon surfaces were: (i) pH, (ii) lagoon liquid temperature, (iii) wind speed above the lagoon surface, and (iv) the concentration of ammoniacal nitrogen in the lagoon. The GSA revealed that interactions between model parameters accounted for over two-thirds of the model variance, a result that cannot be achieved using traditional RSA. Also, the GSA showed that parameter interactions involving liquid pH had more impact on the model output variance than the single parameters: (i) temperature, (ii) wind speed, or (iii) total ammoniacal nitrogen. This study demonstrates that GSA provides a more complete analysis of model input parameters and their interactions on the model output compared to RSA. A comprehensive tutorial regarding the application of GSA to a process model is presented.     

Effects of Washington, D.C. law on drivers' hand-held cell phone use

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects of Washington, D.C. law prohibiting drivers' use of hand-held cell phones on such use. METHODS: Daytime observations of drivers were conducted at signalized intersections in D.C. in March 2004, several months before the law took effect on July 1, 2004, and again in October 2004. As a comparison, observations also were conducted in areas of Virginia and Maryland located close to the D.C. border. Maryland and Virginia placed no limitations on drivers' phone use. Use was observed for 36,091 vehicles in D.C., 25,151 vehicles in Maryland, and 28,483 vehicles in Virginia. RESULTS: The rate of talking on hand-held cell phones among drivers in D.C. declined significantly from 6.1% before the law to 3.5% after. Phone use declined slightly in Maryland and increased significantly in Virginia so that, relative to the patterns of hand-held phone use in the two states, phone use in D.C. declined 50%. Hand-held phone use in D.C. declined comparably among drivers of vehicles registered in all three jurisdictions. D.C. police issued 2,556 citations and 1,232 warnings for cell phone violations during July-November 2004. There were spates of media coverage when the law was passed and when it took effect. CONCLUSIONS: D.C.'s law prohibiting drivers' hand-held phone use had a strong effect on such use among drivers in D.C. Without ongoing publicized enforcement of the law, long-term compliance may be difficult to achieve.     

Sleepiness among night-time drivers: relationship to blood alcohol concentration and other factors

OBJECTIVE: The study aimed to explore the distribution and correlates of subjective sleepiness among the general night-time driving population. METHODS: The survey took place in three British Columbia communities in June 2003 between 21:00 hours to 03:00 hours. Sites and vehicles were selected randomly. Surveyors obtained information on several demographic and situational variables including self-assessed degree of sleepiness and self-reported hours asleep and awake, as well as an objective measure of blood alcohol concentration obtained from a hand-held breath-testing device. RESULTS: The total compliance rate among intercepted drivers was 85%. Among the 2335 drivers responding to the questionnaire, 68.4% indicated that they were wide awake, 27.6% were somewhat sleepy, and 4.1% were very sleepy. Logistic regression quantified the independent contributions of the various factors to subjective sleepiness. Male drivers with positive blood alcohol concentrations under 50 mg% were more likely to report feeling sleepy than those with either higher or with zero blood alcohol concentration. Greater relative risk of sleepiness was also associated with being female, being under age 55, and advanced hour of night. Driving with passengers of the same gender was associated with lower reported sleepiness. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of night-time drivers are driving while sleepy, especially at late night and early morning hours. The combination of alcohol and sleepiness compounds impairment in experimental studies and deserves greater attention in crash risk studies and as a topic for public education and awareness.     

Graduated driver licensing and teenage driver research in 2006

This is the third update of research on graduated driver licensing (GDL) and related teenage driver issues. It briefly summarizes research published since or not included in the 2005 update (Hedlund, J., & Compton, R. (2005). Graduated driver licensing research in 2004 and 2005. Journal of Safety Research, 36(2), 109-119.), describes research in progress of which the authors are aware, and announces plans for a symposium on teenage driving and GDL to be held in February 2007.     

Control chart for monitoring occupational asthma

INTRODUCTION: Work-related asthma has become the most prevalent occupational respiratory disease in the developed world. Occupational asthma is thought to affect 5%-10% of people worldwide. The first step in the diagnosis of occupational asthma is to establish work-relatedness. Although considerable research has been conducted in the area of occupational asthma, no simple, effective, and statistically sound method has been developed that can be used as an initial step to effectively identify the workers at risk for occupational asthma. The purpose of this research was to investigate whether Shewhart control chart method can be used as an effective method to detect occupational asthma. METHOD: Forty-five workers who completed the study and provided usable peak expiratory flow (a lung function marker) recordings while at work and away from work were included in this study. Control charts were developed using Shewhart's Method. The lower control limit of at work control chart (LCL(W)) was compared to each subject's Personal Best (PB) value. RESULTS: Reviewing the results of this comparison showed LCL(W)<60% PB to have a sensitivity of 85.71%, specificity of 87.50%, and an error rate of 13.33%. When the subjects suspected for false positive and false negative diagnoses were identified, the test produced a sensitivity of 95.24%, a specificity of 95.83% and an error rate of 4.44%. CONCLUSIONS: Our results were as good as, and in some cases better than, published clinical guidelines. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Our research showed that the control chart method is an effective, simple, and inexpensive tool for early intervention in workers suspected for occupational asthma.     

Parents' views of teen driving risks, the role of parents, and how they plan to manage the risks

PROBLEM: There is limited information about how parents view teen driving risks and intend to handle these risks during the licensing process, and how they will respond to graduated licensing provisions. METHODS: Parents in Connecticut were interviewed when their teens got their learner's permit. The survey was undertaken when the state did not have a midnight restriction or a passenger restriction. RESULTS: Generally, parents were well aware of teen driving risks, thought parents should be thoroughly involved in the licensing process, and plan to be active participants themselves. DISCUSSION: Parents were concerned about the risk of driving after midnight and already restrict that behavior. However, parents do not seem to see or understand the risks of having even one teen passenger in the vehicle. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The views and existing practices of parents need to be taken into account in deciding on the provisions of graduated licensing legislation and how to best ensure acceptance and compliance.     

Mode choice model for vulnerable motorcyclists in Malaysia

OBJECTIVE: In developing countries, motorcycle use has grown in popularity in the past decades. Commensurate with this growth is the increase in death and casualties among motorcyclists in these countries. One of the strategic programs to minimize this problem is to reduce motorcyclists exposure by shifting them into safer modes of transport. This study aims to explore the differences in the characteristics of bus and motorcycle users. It identifies the factors contributing to their choice of transport mode and estimates the probability that motorcyclists might change their travel mode to a safer alternative; namely, bus travel. METHODS: In this article, a survey of 535 motorcycle and bus users was conducted in seven districts of Selangor state, Malaysia. A binary logit model was developed for the two alternative modes, bus and motorcycle. RESULTS: It was found that travel time, travel cost, gender, age, and income level are significant in influencing motorcyclists' mode choice behavior. The probability of motorcycle riders shifting to public transport was also examined based on a scenario of a reduction in bus travel time and travel cost. CONCLUSIONS: Reduction of total travel time for the bus mode emerges as the most important element in a program aimed at attracting motorcyclists towards public transport and away from the motorcycle mode.     

Characteristics of speeders

OBJECTIVE: To determine the characteristics of speeders, defined as drivers of vehicles traveling at least 15 mph above the posted speed limit and relatively faster than surrounding vehicles. METHODS: Vehicle speeds were recorded on 13 roads in Virginia with speed limits ranging from 40 to 55 mph. Speeders were compared with slower drivers, defined as drivers of adjacent vehicles traveling no more than 5 mph above the speed limit. License plates were used to identify vehicle owners; owners were inferred to have been driving if observed gender and estimated age matched those of the registered owner. For these drivers, information on exact driver age and gender, vehicle make and model, and driving record was obtained from the Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles. RESULTS: Five percent of the vehicles observed were traveling at least 15 mph above the limit, and 3% qualified as speeders, as defined in this study. Speeders were younger than drivers in the comparison group, drove newer vehicles, and had more speeding violations and other moving violations on their records. They also had 60% more crashes. DISCUSSION: Speeders are a high-risk group. Their speeding behavior is not likely to be controlled without vigorous, consistent enforcement, including the use of automated technology.