Response to Kruse-Plass et al. (2017) regarding the risk to non-target lepidopteran larvae exposed to pollen from one or more of three Bt maize events (MON810, Bt11 and 1507)

We respond to the paper of Kruse-Plass et al. (Environ Sci Eur 29:12, 2017), published in this journal, regarding the risk to non-target lepidopteran larvae exposed to pollen from one or more of three Bt maize events (MON810, Bt11 and 1507). We emphasise that what is important for environmental risk assessment is not the number of pollen grains per se, but the degree of exposure of a NT lepidopteran larva to Bt protein contained in maize pollen. The main text of this response deals with general issues which Kruse-Plass et al. have failed to understand; more detailed refutations of each of their claims are given in Additional file 1. Valid environmental risk assessment requires direct measurement of pollen on leaves at varying distances outside a source field(s); such measurements reflect the potential exposure experienced by an individual larva on a host plant. There are no new data in the Kruse-Plass et al. paper, or indeed any data directly quantifying pollen on actual host-plant leaves outside a maize field; only data gathered within or at the edge of maize crops were reported. Values quoted by Kruse-Plass et al. for deposition on host plants outside the field were estimates only. We reiterate the severe methodological criticisms made by EFSA [Relevance of a new scientific publication (Hofmann et al. 2016) for previous environmental risk assessment conclusions and risk management recommendations on the cultivation of Bt-maize events MON810, Bt11 and 1507. EFSA Supp Publ; EN-1070, 2016], which render this estimation procedure unreliable. Furthermore, criticisms of EFSA (EFSA J 2015(13):4127, 2015) and of EFSA [Relevance of a new scientific publication (Hofmann et al. 2016) for previous environmental risk assessment conclusions and risk management recommendations on the cultivation of Bt-maize events MON810, Bt11 and 1507. EFSA Supp Publ; EN-1070, 2016] made by Kruse-Plass et al. are shown in Additional file 1 to be without foundation. We therefore consider that there is no valid evidence presented by Kruse-Plass et al. to justify their conclusions.     

Extension of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for long term dose assessment of high level nuclear waste disposal sites to uncertainties in the human behaviour

Biosphere dose conversion factors are computed for the French high-level geological waste disposal concept and to illustrate the combined probabilistic and deterministic approach. Both ¹³⁵Cs and ⁷⁹Se are used as examples. Probabilistic analyses of the system considering all parameters, as well as physical and societal parameters independently, allow quantification of their mutual impact on overall uncertainty. As physical parameter uncertainties decreased, for example with the availability of further experimental and field data, the societal uncertainties, which are less easily constrained, particularly for the long term, become more and more significant. One also has to distinguish uncertainties impacting the low dose portion of a distribution from those impacting the high dose range, the latter having logically a greater impact in an assessment situation. The use of cumulative probability curves allows us to quantify probability variations as a function of the dose estimate, with the ratio of the probability variation (slope of the curve) indicative of uncertainties of different radionuclides. In the case of ¹³⁵Cs with better constrained physical parameters, the uncertainty in human behaviour is more significant, even in the high dose range, where they increase the probability of higher doses. For both radionuclides, uncertainties impact more strongly in the intermediate than in the high dose range. In an assessment context, the focus will be on probabilities of higher dose values. The probabilistic approach can furthermore be used to construct critical groups based on a predefined probability level and to ensure that critical groups cover the expected range of uncertainty.     

Calibrating climate change policies: the causes and consequences of sustained under-reaction

We apply insights from the recent literature on disproportionate policy reactions to the case of climate change policy-making. We show when and why climate change exhibits features of a sustained under-reaction: Governments may react to concerns about climate change not through substantive change but by efforts to manage blame strategically. As long as they can avoid blame for potential negative policy outcomes policy-makers can act to deny problems, or implement only small-scale or symbolic reforms. While this pattern may change as climate change problems worsen and public recognition of the issue and what can be done about it alters, opportunities to manage blame will still exist. Governments will only revert to more substantive interventions when attempts to fatalistically frame the problem as unavoidable fail in the face of increased public visibility.     

Exposure of the Roots of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Populus nigra</Emphasis> L. cv. Loenen to PAHs and its Effect on growth and water balance

Poplar cuttings were cultivated for 4 weeks in a substrate, which consisted of a combination of sand and nutrient solution. The plants were treated for 24 days with BaP, Chr, Ant, Phen, P and Flt, single or in combination. The concentration of the PAHs ranged from 0.1-200 mg/kg substrate. The results of the pollution experiments can be summarized as follows: 1. The most significant deviations between the test groups and the control can be observed for transpiration, nutrient solution uptake, and root mass. 2. Although transpiration and nutrient solution uptake are significantly lower for all the treated groups than for the control group, the water content of the leaves was not affected by PAHs. 3. The biomass of the shoots and the growth in shoot length do not react as strongly to exposure to PAHs as transpiration, nutrient solution uptake and the volume of the roots. 4. The differences in leaf weight and leaf surface area are significantly less pronounced compared to the control groups. Growth inhibition is most evident with Flt. Growth and absorption of the nutrient solution dropped with just Flt 0.1 mg/kg substrate. When the substrate concentration was increased, growth and nutrient solution uptake dropped considerably and at a concentration of Flt 200, 5 of the 11 test plants died before the end of the period of exposure. Nutrient solution uptake and shoot development of the test plants decreased in the following order: BaP H approximately = Chr > Ant > Phen > Pyr > Flt.     

Assessing the susceptibility of societies to droughts: a political science perspective

In this article we develop a concept for the assessment of state’s susceptibility to drought based on a political science perspective. Different sources of capacities and sensitivities need to be taken into account to assess the overall susceptibility of states as political systems. We argue that the overall susceptibility of a society depends on an interplay of state capacity and readiness as main elements of political susceptibility, wealth and economic sensitivity as elements of economic susceptibility and the degree of social integration. To transform the conceptual model into a susceptibility assessment we developed an inference model in order to generate quantitative indices. For this purpose we apply fuzzy set theory using data from our case study regions, namely Andhra Pradesh (India), the Volga region (Russia) and (Southern) Portugal. The resulting computed trends for Portugal suggest that the society will be able to deal even with severe natural conditions due to existing political, economic, and social conditions. The assessment results for the Indian and Russian case study regions, in contrast, give reason for precaution since the occurrence of drought-induced crisis events seems much more likely in the light of more crucial, overall conditions, namely lower degrees of state capacity and readiness as well as, in the case of India, a high economic susceptibility. However, further improvements are possible given the improved availability of data and the integration of more qualitative information. Additionally, the expansion to further case study regions could help validate the overall concept.     

Impact of microcystin containing diets on physiological performance of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) concerning detoxification

Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) were fed by diets supplemented with cyanobacteria containing in part the cyanotoxin microcystin-LR (MC-LR) to determine the potential impacts on detoxification. Four different diets were prepared based on a commercial diet: (1) control, (2) MC-5% (containing 5% dried Microcystis sp. biomass with 4.92 μg MC-LR g(-1) diet), (3) MC-20% (containing 20% dried Microcystis sp. biomass with 19.54 μg MC-LR g(-1) diet), and (4) Arthr-20% (containing 20% dried Arthrospira sp. biomass without MC-LR). Blood and liver samples were taken after one, 7, and 28 days and protein has been determined in plasma and liver. In the liver, impacts on detoxification were measured by glutathione-S-transferase (GST) activities and gene expression of multi drug resistance protein (MDRP). Plasma protein did not change between all four diets at any sampling time whereas liver protein was significantly elevated already after one day in Arthr-20% and after 28 days in both, MC-20% and Arthr-20%. Biochemical measurements of GST activities revealed no significant impact at any sampling time. In order to characterize the potential effect of MC-LR on MDRP, RT-qPCR method was established. However, as for GST activities no significant changes in MDRP gene expression have been observed. Thus, in summary, oral exposure of MC-LR containing cyanobacteria to Nile tilapia via feed ingestion did not impact significantly detoxification in liver concerning GST activities and MDRP expression despite biochemical composition concerning liver protein was significantly elevated by the diets containing 20% cyanobacteria biomass, regardless whether they contained MC-LR or not.     

Bringing diverse knowledge sources together--a meta-model for supporting integrated catchment management

Integrated catchment management (ICM), as promoted by recent legislation such as the European Water Framework Directive, presents difficult challenges to planners and decision-makers. To support decision-making in the face of high complexity and uncertainty, tools are required that can integrate the evidence base required to evaluate alternative management scenarios and promote communication and social learning. In this paper we present a pragmatic approach for developing an integrated decision-support tool, where the available sources of information are very diverse and a tight model coupling is not possible. In the first instance, a loosely coupled model is developed which includes numerical sub-models and knowledge-based sub-models. However, such a model is not easy for decision-makers and stakeholders to operate without modelling skills. Therefore, we derive from it a meta-model based on a Bayesian Network approach which is a decision-support tool tailored to the needs of the decision-makers and is fast and easy to operate. The meta-model can be derived at different levels of detail and complexity according to the requirements of the decision-makers. In our case, the meta-model was designed for high-level decision-makers to explore conflicts and synergies between management actions at the catchment scale. As prediction uncertainties are propagated and explicitly represented in the model outcomes, important knowledge gaps can be identified and an evidence base for robust decision-making is provided. The framework seeks to promote the development of modelling tools that can support ICM both by providing an integrated scientific evidence base and by facilitating communication and learning processes.     

水坝与自然:为生命调剂充足的水

世界水坝委员会已经提议未来的决策要立足于5个核心价值取向:公平、效率、参与决策、可持续与负责任.它还提议了7项战略优先措施.本文针对焦点在"持续的河流与生计"的战略优先措施进行审查.该战略的一个关键元素是"环境流"的建立,所谓环境流就是为下游的社会、经济利益和生态系统留下充分的水.只有当科学信息与透明的协商过程结合在一起的时候,环境流才能够建立起来、适用的立法与激励机制也需要到位.