How decisions about fitting species distribution models affect conservation outcomes

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used in conservation and land-use planning as inputs to describe biodiversity patterns. These models can be built in different ways, and decisions about data preparation, selection of predictor variables, model fitting, and evaluation all alter the resulting predictions. Commonly, the true distribution of species is unknown and independent data to verify which SDM variant to choose are lacking. Such model uncertainty is of concern to planners. We analyzed how 11 routine decisions about model complexity, predictors, bias treatment, and setting thresholds for predicted values altered conservation priority patterns across 25 species. Models were created with MaxEnt and run through Zonation to determine the priority rank of sites. Although all SDM variants performed well (area under the curve >0.7), they produced spatially different predictions for species and different conservation priority solutions. Priorities were most strongly altered by decisions to not address bias or to apply binary thresholds to predicted values; on average 40% and 35%, respectively, of all grid cells received an opposite priority ranking. Forcing high model complexity altered conservation solutions less than forcing simplicity (14% and 24% of cells with opposite rank values, respectively). Use of fewer species records to build models or choosing alternative bias treatments had intermediate effects (25% and 23%, respectively). Depending on modeling choices, priority areas overlapped as little as 10–20% with the baseline solution, affecting top and bottom priorities differently. Our results demonstrate the extent of model-based uncertainty and quantify the relative impacts of SDM building decisions. When it is uncertain what the best SDM approach and conservation plan is, solving uncertainty or considering alterative options is most important for those decisions that change plans the most.     

Are you an ambitious cyclist? Results of the cyclist profile questionnaire in Germany

Abstract

Objective: A number of studies have already grouped cyclists according to different aspects of their mobility behavior. This could be used e.g., to improve the bicycle infrastructure planning, to detect critical spots and, to reduce obstacles for cycling. This wide, preexisting, range of cyclist typologies usually concentrates on one or two influence factors and differs, content-wise, in both factors used, as well as, methodically. Based on existing cyclist typologies we extracted all possible influence factors to integrate them in one single questionnaire. The objective of this study, using an empirical, based approach, is to compare this typology of cyclists with existing ones, integrating all known influence factors of recent studies.

Methods: To address these issues, we conducted a Germany-wide online survey on cycling behavior, covering all relevant aspects we derived from both literature and especially, former cyclist typology studies including: social factors; the impact of environmental, individual; and route factors; as well as motives. The main goal was to identify distinct types of cyclists, and describe them as detailed as possible. The heterogeneous sample included a total of 10,294 responses.

Results: Using factor and cluster analyses, a multidimensional typology with four groups of cyclists was derived which were interpreted as: ambitious, functional, pragmatic, and passionate cyclists. In addition, socio-economic factors, cyclist’s motivation, and crash history were analyzed.

Conclusion: The results produced by grouping different characteristics of cyclists can lead to policy recommendations or communal bicycle traffic planning. Policy planners can estimate reactions of the different types on interventions and adjust their decisions which can serve to support already passionate cyclists or, encourage normally under-represented infrequent cyclists to cycle more. The extent of perceived safety plays here an important role in the classification, e.g., the handling of high-risk areas for crashes.     

Biogenic volatile organic compounds as a potential stimulator for organic contaminant degradation by soil microorganisms

The effects of monoterpenes on the degradation of ¹⁴C-2,4-dichlorophenol (DCP) were investigated in soils collected from areas surrounding monoterpene and non-monoterpene-emitting vegetation. Indigenous microorganisms degraded ¹⁴C-2,4-DCP to ¹⁴CO₂, after 1 d contact time. Degradation was enhanced by prior exposure of the soils to 2,4-DCP for 32 d, increasing extents of mineralisation up to 60%. Monoterpene amendments further enhanced 2,4-DCP degradation, but only following pre-exposure to both 2,4-DCP and monoterpene, with total 2,4-DCP mineralisation extents of up to 71%. Degradation was greatest at the higher monoterpene concentrations (≥1 μg kg⁻¹). Total mineralisation extents were similar between concentrations, but higher than the control and the 0.1 μg kg⁻¹ amendment, indicating that increases in monoterpene concentration has a diminishing enhancing effect. We suggest that monoterpenes can stimulate the biodegradation of 2,4-DCP by indigenous soil microorganisms and that monoterpene amendment in soils is an effective strategy for removing organic contaminants.     

Population-level toxicity of the insecticide, spinosad and the nonylphenol polyethoxylate, R-11, to the cladoceran species Ceriodaphnia dubia Richard

The effects of the natural insecticide, spinosad, and the agricultural adjuvant, R-11, were evaluated on populations of the water flea, Ceriodaphnia dubia after chronic 8-day exposures. The number of individuals used to start the chronic exposure studies (founders) and the number of offspring/surviving female were significantly reduced after exposure to spinosad concentrations ≥ 2.5 μg/L. The final number of individuals was significantly reduced after exposure to spinosad concentrations ≥ 1.0 μg/L. Population growth rate was significantly reduced after exposure to spinosad concentrations ≥ 1 μg/L. Extinction occurred (defined as negative population growth rate) after exposure to spinosad concentrations of 10 μg/L. Therefore, negative effects were observed in C. dubia after exposure to spinosad at a concentration near the chronic expected environmental concentration (EEC) of 2.3 μg/L. R-11 was much less toxic to C. dubia than spinosad. The number of founders was not significantly reduced until C. dubia were exposed to 12,000 μg/L. The number of offspring/surviving female, final number of individuals, and population growth rate were significantly reduced after exposure to R-11 concentrations ≥ 5,000 μg/L. Extinction occurred after exposure to R-11 concentrations of 12,000 μg/L which was above the EEC of 790 μg/L. These results indicate that spinosad and R-11 both have lethal and sublethal effects on C. dubia. However, spinosad appears to affect C. dubia at or near the EEC while R-11 does not negatively affect this species until concentrations are much higher than the EEC.     

Separate waste collection in Italy: the role of socio-cultural factors and targets set by law

The aim of this paper was twofold: on the one hand, we analyse the results achieved in terms of percentages of separate collection in Italy by testing the effectiveness of Legislative Decree 152/2006 in improving the separate collection process; and on the other hand, we investigate on some of the factors, related to the sociocultural local context, that could explain the different impacts of the law in the three macro-areas considered (North, Central and South Italy). To this purpose, an econometric analysis on the Italian regions for the 1996–2013 period is performed, comparing the period before (1996–2006) and after (2006–2013) the date of entry into force of the new law. The results show the effectiveness of Legislative Decree 152/2006 in promoting separate collection, although a regional difference in terms of separate collection rate is observed. Northern regions proved to be more dynamic and reactive to the above-mentioned legislation, while Central and especially Southern regions achieved poorer results in moving to higher separate waste collection rates. Finally, our work provides evidence on some local factors that may have hampered an effective policy implementation in Southern regions, among them, the presence of criminal activities and the lack of citizen participation in politics.     

Airborne polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in a medium-sized city affected by preharvest sugarcane burning and inhalation risk for human health

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in air were measured in a municipality where sugarcane plantations are extensive, at three sites, one in the city center and two in rural localities. Twenty-four-hour sampling was done using PS1 PUF samplers from Andersen Instruments Inc., at least 1 day per month per site, from June 2009 to October 2009. The chemical analyses were performed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC/MS) for the 16 most toxic PAHs. The incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILTR) by inhalation was determined by the Monte Carlo method for the urban population using Crystal Ball software. The total concentration of the 16 PAHs at all sites varied from 6.2 to 65.7 ng m^?3, with an average of 25.9 ± 18.2 ng m^?3. The average concentrations per site were 14.1 ± 13.0 ng m^?3 at rural site B, 20.7 ± 11.5 ng m^?3 at rural site A, and 36.1 ± 22.7 ng m^?3 at the central site. The cancer risk for infants, children, and adults was approximately 14%, 25%, and 61% of the total IRLT, respectively. The mean (95% upper probability limit [95% UPL]) values were 1.2 × 10^?7 (2.2 × 10^?7) for infants, 2.2 × 10^?7 (4.1 × 10^?7) for children, and 8.9 × 10^?7 (1.1 × 10^?6) for adults. Although the three most abundant PAHs found were phenanthrene, fluoranthene, and pyrene, the three most important contributions to the incremental risk of cancer came from benzo[a]pyrene, benzo[b]fluoranthene, and naphthalene. Compared with the risks in big cities such as São Paulo, this would be low, but not negligible. Analysis of ratios of PAHs according to the literature showed that vehicle exhaust and biomass burning, including sugarcane burning, seem to be the most important contributors to PAH concentrations in the central area of Araraquara City.

Implications:The growth of biofuel use worldwide, especially ethanol, together with preharvesting burning practice, is cause of concern with regard to possible health effects, due to increased air pollution levels in cities in regions where sugarcane plantation and processing are intensive. This paper shows that the risk of cancer from PAH inhalation in an urban area surrounded by sugarcane agriculture was of the same order of magnitude as the tolerable risk value of 10^?6. As other classical and hazardous pollutants are also present, care should be taken to keep pollution as low as possible to protect human health.     

Wildfire,climate, and perceptions in Northeast Oregon

Regional Environmental Change - Wildfire poses a rising threat in the western USA, fueled by synergies between historical fire suppression, changing land use, insects and disease, and shifts toward...     

Peroxymonosulfate-Co(II) oxidation system for the removal of the non-ionic surfactant Brij 35 from aqueous solution

The non-ionic surfactant Brij 35 was effectively removed from concentrated aqueous solution by the peroxymonosulfate/Co(II) system, using oxone (2KHSO₅·KHSO₄·K₂SO₄) as a source of peroxymonosulfate. At pH = 2.3 and initial Brij 35 concentration in the range 680-2410 mg L⁻¹, 86-94% removal was achieved after 24 h, using Co(II) = 15 μM and oxone = 5.9 mM. The effectiveness of removal did not change when initial pH was in the range 2.3-8.2. After five subsequent additions of Co(II) and oxone to the solution, COD and TOC removals increased up to 64% and 33%, respectively. Radical quenching tests confirmed that sulfate radical was the dominant radical species in the system. The main identified by-products from surfactant degradation were: (a) low molecular weight organic acids; (b) aldehydes and formates with shorter ethoxy chain than Brij 35; (c) alcohol ethoxylates carrying hydroxyl groups bonded to ethoxy chain. By-products identification allowed to hypothesize the pathways of Brij 35 degradation.     

Identification of fungal proteases potentially suitable for environmentally friendly cleaning-in-place in the dairy industry

Fourteen fungi were screened for ability to produce proteases with activity on milk protein. The proteases produced were assessed on a lab-scale in terms of their potential suitability for cleaning-in-place (CIP) in the dairy industry. Cleaning performance was assessed by determining the ability of the enzymes to remove an industrial-like milk fouling deposit from stainless steel. Based on the results observed, the extracellular protease activity produced by Schizophyllum commune was selected as most suitable for potential CIP application. A CIP procedure involving a sodium carbonate rinse followed by enzymatic cleaning with this fungal enzyme activity was developed. Satisfactory cleaning, judged by quantification of residual organic matter and protein on the stainless steel surface after cleaning, was achieved using the developed CIP procedure at 40 °C. This CIP procedure, based on biodegradable enzymes working at low temperature is more environmentally favourable than conventional CIP methods using caustic based cleaning solutions at 70-80 °C. Potential environmental benefits of the developed enzymatic CIP procedure include reduced energy consumption, decreased chemical usage and a reduced requirement for pH neutralisation of the resultant waste prior to release.     

Recovery of benthic invertebrate communities from acidification in Killarney Park lakes

Using a reference-condition comparison, recovery of benthic invertebrate communities from acidification was assessed in three lakes in Killarney Wilderness Park approximately 40–60 km from the massive metal smelters in Sudbury, Canada. Test site analyses (TSAs) were used to compare the park lakes to 20 reference lakes near Dorset Ontario, 200 km to the east. An extension of a previous survey (1997–2001) of two sensitive mayfly species (Stenonema femoratum and Stenacron interpunctatum) was conducted in one of the lakes. TSA results indicate that the three Killarney lakes remain significantly different from reference condition due primarily to higher abundances of a few acid-tolerant families and the presence of some less abundant sensitive families. Colonization rates differ greatly between the two mayfly species presumably because of competition for available habitat. Overall, this study suggests that early colonizers will gain an advantage to out-compete subsequent arrivals, and these competitive interactions will delay the return of communities to reference condition.