Review of Statistics of Extreme Values with Applications to Air Quality Data Part I. Review

In the field of air pollution control, the rare event is often of more significance than the common event. This is evidenced by the content of air quality standards which define acceptable upper limits of air pollution concentrations and acceptable frequencies with which such concentrations can be exceeded. The principles of extreme value statistics provide important tools for analyzing air quality data in an appropriately significant context.

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First the principles of extreme value statistics are reviewed. The presentation is decidedly utilitarian; no attempt is made to derive more than the simplest propositions. The underlying assumptions of the theory are carefully pointed out and discussed. Particular emphasis is placed on the second largest value and its relation to the largest value. Exact probability distributions, and approximations to them, are derived in terms of the total population probability function. The more familiar and useful asymptotic distributions and their uses are presented and discussed. Part II of the paper will present applications of the theory to air quality data.     

Local Sustainable Development: Land-use Planning's Contribution to Modern Local Government

This paper assesses the contribution of land-use planning to the objectives of local sustainable development in some of the UK's most urbanized areas. Sustainable development provides the context within which local planning policies are now being prepared, and can be seen to be a potentially important aspect of central government's proposals for modernizing local government. Using the results from a comprehensive survey of development plans in metropolitan authorities, the paper assesses both the strengths and the weaknesses of land-use planning in terms of sustainable development and speculates upon the lessons they may offer to the government's more recent proposals on modernizing local government.     

Trends over time in the risk of driver death: what if vehicle designs had not improved?

OBJECTIVES: Passenger vehicle driver death rates per million vehicle registrations declined steadily during calendar years 1985-2004. The present study sought to separate the effect of vehicle design changes from this trend. METHODS: Restricting the trend to a fixed set of model years removed the vehicle design effects, but there were still effects due to vehicle aging. Risk of driver death was found to increase each year vehicles aged, probably due to changes in vehicle use patterns. RESULTS: After separating out the vehicle design effects and making adjustments for the vehicle age effects, a different picture emerged of trends in death rates over time. Absent the vehicle design changes, the historical decline in driver fatality risk would have ended in 1993, with risk climbing ever since. This underlying trend has been obscured by changes in the vehicle fleet. CONCLUSIONS: The push for vehicle improvements has been worthwhile and can be credited with saving thousands of lives. However, the analysis shows that the gains in occupant protection from vehicle design improvements have been offset partially by an increasingly risky environment in recent years. Therefore, more attention needs to be paid to programs targeting improvement in roadway design and driver behavior.     

Possible chemical causes of skeletal deformities in grey heron nestlings (Ardea cinerea) in North Nottinghamshire, UK

Dead and deformed grey heron (Ardea cinerea) chicks were reported at a large heronry in North Nottinghamshire, UK between 1996 (when systematic visits to the heronry started) and 2002. Many of the birds died for no obvious reason but deformities in others included multiple fractures of the tarsus and tibia and metacarpal bones (angel wings). This study aimed to investigate possible chemical causes of these deformities. Analysis of eggs and nestling tissue for a range of metals showed no levels of concern and no significant differences between unaffected and deformed birds. However, the levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) detected in affected heron nestlings in 2002 and in eggs taken from nests in 2003 were sufficiently high to suggest that this may be the underlying cause of the deformities, possibly due to effects on deposition of calcium in bone. Further work is underway to identify where the parent birds of the affected nestlings are feeding and identify the possible source of the pollution.     

Isomeric analysis of PCDD/PCDF in waste incinerator fly ash by GC-MS/MS

The development of an analytical method for the analysis of PCDD/PCDF in flyash using a bench analytical system comprising of a gas chromatograph fitted with an ion trap detector operated in the tandem MS mode is described. The optimum settings for the most important MS/MS parameters are given, including those for the less reported mono- to tri-chlorinated dioxin and furan congener groups. Flyash samples from three waste incineration plants representing a decommissioned 1970s plant design, an upgraded and still operating plant originally designed in the 1970s, and a modern 1990s design operating plant have been analysed for PCDD/PCDF. The flyash samples were analysed for PCDD/PCDF using the methods developed and the total PCDD/PCDF, I-TEQ values and isomeric profiles are reported. The flyash from the older decommissioned incinerator had very significantly higher concentrations of PCDD/PCDF compared to the modern incinerator flyash.     

Biodegradation and speciation of residual SS-ethylenediaminedisuccinic acid (EDDS) in soil solution left after soil washing

This paper aims to investigate the degradation and speciation of EDDS-complexes (SS-ethylenediaminedisuccinic acid) in soil following soil washing. The changes in soil solution metal and EDDS concentrations were investigated for three polluted soils. EDDS was degraded after a lag phase of 7-11 days with a half-life of 4.18-5.60 days. No influence of EDDS-speciation on the reaction was observed. The decrease in EDDS resulted in a corresponding decrease in solubilized metals. Changes in EDDS speciation can be related to (1) initial composition of the soil, (2) temporarily anoxic conditions in the soil slurry after soil washing, (3) exchange of EDDS complexes with Cu even in soils without elevated Cu and (4) formation of NiEDDS. Dissolved organic matter is important for metal speciation at low EDDS concentrations. Our results show that even in polluted soils EDDS is degraded from a level of several hundred micromoles to below 1 microM within 50 days.     

Transport and dispersion during wintertime particulate matter episodes in the San Joaquin Valley, California

Data analysis and modeling were performed to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of wintertime transport and dispersion processes and the impact of these processes on particulate matter (PM) concentrations in the California San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Radar wind profiler (RWP) and radio acoustic sounding system (RASS) data collected from 18 sites throughout Central California were used to estimate hourly mixing heights for a 3-month period and to create case studies of high-resolution diagnostic wind fields, which were used for trajectory and dispersion analyses. Data analyses show that PM episodes were characterized by an upper-level ridge of high pressure that generally produced light winds through the entire depth of the atmospheric boundary layer and low mixing heights compared with nonepisode days. Peak daytime mixing heights during episodes were -400 m above ground level (agl) compared with -800 m agl during nonepisodes. These episode/nonepisode differences were observed throughout the SJV. Dispersion modeling indicates that the range of influence of primary PM emitted in major population centers within the SJV ranged from -15 to 50 km. Trajectory analyses revealed that little intrabasin pollutant transport occurred among major population centers in the SJV; however, interbasin transport from the northern SJV and Sacramento regions into the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) was often observed. In addition, this analysis demonstrates the usefulness of integrating RWP/RASS measurements into data analyses and modeling to improve the understanding of meteorological processes that impact pollution, such as aloft transport and boundary layer evolution.     

Current concepts of Down syndrome screening tests in assisted reproduction twin pregnancies: another double trouble

Assisted reproductive technologies (ART) have increased both the number of pregnancies in women beyond the age of 35 and the incidence of multiple pregnancies. Various methods of screening for Down syndrome (DS) were introduced in clinical practice during the last two decades, and specific problems were encountered when they were applied for twin pregnancies. The current review aims to explore the problematic issue of prenatal DS screening in ART twins. Overall, more women with twin pregnancies (mainly those who conceived via assisted reproduction) are found to be false positive for DS. This is because mid-trimester maternal serum screening is associated with a higher false-positive rate secondary to changes in the feto-placental endocrinologic metabolism, reflected mainly in high human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels in the ART pregnancies. First-trimester nuchal translucency (NT) measurement in twin pregnancies is not affected by the problems encountered in serum screening. This sonographic screening approach enables a fetus-specific identification of those fetuses at high risk of DS and is associated with a lower false-positive rate than mid-trimester serum screening. DS screening in ART twins presents several challenges in determining the most appropriate screening test modality. Whether there is any significant benefit of adding first-trimester biochemistry or nasal bone scanning in screening ART-conceived twins awaits further investigation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of the life cycle of non-ferrous minerals

This paper examines the utility of a methodology for forecasting the lifecycle of metals obtained from non-renewable resources which are subject to high rates of growth in consumption. A rate method is used, subject to arbitrarily chosen upper limits of reserves. One general pattern which emerges is that extraction of the resource will tend to rise exponentially in face of falling rate of discovery of new reserves; a degree of ‘overshoot’ occurs. In other words, an economy might continue to be geared to a given non-renewable resource with a degree of optimism about reserve life being maintained until well after it is justifiable and there may be inadequate time for the price mechanism alone to operate to generate development of substitutes, and for the introduction of intensive recycle technology or greater selectivity and economies in the use of the original resource.It is concluded that the methodology used here could be useful to study the possible forms of lifecycles for the base metals.     

Cesium migration in Hanford sediment: a multisite cation exchange model based on laboratory transport experiments

Cs+ transport experiments carried out in columns packed with uncontaminated Hanford formation sediment from the SX tank farm provide strong support for the use of a multisite, multicomponent cation exchange model to describe Cs+ migration in the Hanford vadose zone. The experimental results indicate a strong dependence of the effective Cs+ Kd on the concentrations of other cations, including Na+ that is present at high to extremely high concentrations in fluids leaking from the Hanford SX tanks. A strong dependence of the Cs+ Kd on the aqueous Cs+ concentration is also apparent, with retardation of Cs+ increasing from a value of 41 at a Cs+ concentration of 10(-4) M in the feed solution to as much as 282 at a Cs+ concentration of 5x10(-7) M, all in a background of 1 M NaNO3. The total cation exchange capacity (CEC) of the Hanford sediment was determined using 22Na isotopic equilibrium exchange in a flow-through column experiment. The value for the CEC of 120 microeq/g determined with this method is compatible with a value of 121.9 microeq/g determined by multi-cation elution. While two distinct exchange sites were proposed by Zachara et al. [Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 66 (2002) 193] based on binary batch exchange experiments, a third site is proposed in this study to improve the fit of the Cs+-Na+ and Cs+-Ca+ exchange data and to capture self-sharpened Cs+ breakthrough curves at low concentrations of Cs+. Two of the proposed exchange sites represent frayed edge sites (FES) on weathered micas and constitute 0.02% and 0.22% of the total CEC. Both of the FES show a very strong selectivity for Cs+ over Na+ (K(Na-Cs)=10(7.22) and 10(4.93), respectively). The third site, accounting for over 99% of the total CEC, is associated with planar sites on expansible clays and shows a smaller Na+-Cs+ selectivity coefficient of 10(1.99). Parameters derived from a fit of binary batch experiments alone tend to under predict Cs+ retardation in the column experiments. The transport experiments indicate 72-90% of the Cs+ sorbed in experiments targeting exchange on FES was desorbed over a 10- and 24-day period, respectively. At high Cs+ concentrations, where sorption is controlled primarily by exchange on planar sites, 95% of the Cs+ desorption was desorbed. Most of the difficulty in desorbing Cs+ from FES is a result of the extremely high selectivity of these sites for Cs+, although truly irreversible sorption as high as 23% was suggested in one experiment. The conclusion that Cs+ exchange is largely reversible in a thermodynamic sense is supported by the ability to match Cs+ desorption curves almost quantitatively with an equilibrium reactive transport simulation. The model for Cs+ retardation developed here qualitatively explains the behavior of Cs+ in the Hanford vadose zone underneath a variety of leaking tanks with differing salt concentrations. The high selectivity of FES for Cs+ implies that future desorption and migration is very unlikely to occur under natural recharge conditions.