A development in energy flow/barrier analysis

In this paper, the occupational accidents and their effects on people are modeled. The basis of energy flow/barrier analysis is used to define an accident as the impact of a hazardous agent on a target, as a result of failure of control and protective barriers. This definition is enhanced to include serial and parallel barriers and to distinguish energy barriers from target barriers. The barrier attributes are defined and used to create a quantitative scenario-building model. The probability and severity of various accidents are estimated, by studying barrier reliability and efficiency. This approach is used to develop and simulate accident scenarios and to calculate their consequences. This model can be used in complex systems for analyzing the risk and estimating the importance of barriers.     

Common Pool Resource Appropriation under Costly Cooperation

In addition to the usual fixed costs, we introduce variable costs in a community's effort to cooperate in extracting from a common pool resource. Using a standard supervision mechanism, these variable costs are shown to be an increasing function of individual members' incentives to default. The model explains why we frequently observe communities that all cooperate and have relatively similar resource endowments, and yet achieve very different levels of extraction.     

Nesting habits shape feeding preferences and predatory behavior in an ant genus

We tested if nesting habits influence ant feeding preferences and predatory behavior in the monophyletic genus Pseudomyrmex (Pseudomyrmecinae) which comprises terrestrial and arboreal species, and, among the latter, plant-ants which are obligate inhabitants of myrmecophytes (i.e., plants sheltering so-called plant-ants in hollow structures). A cafeteria experiment revealed that the diet of ground-nesting Pseudomyrmex consists mostly of prey and that of arboreal species consists mostly of sugary substances, whereas the plant-ants discarded all the food we provided. Workers forage solitarily, detecting prey from a distance thanks to their hypertrophied eyes. Approach is followed by antennal contact, seizure, and the manipulation of the prey to sting it under its thorax (next to the ventral nerve cord). Arboreal species were not more efficient at capturing prey than were ground-nesting species. A large worker size favors prey capture. Workers from ground- and arboreal-nesting species show several uncommon behavioral traits, each known in different ant genera from different subfamilies: leaping abilities, the use of surface tension strengths to transport liquids, short-range recruitment followed by conflicts between nestmates, the consumption of the prey’s hemolymph, and the retrieval of entire prey or pieces of prey after having cut it up. Yet, we never noted group ambushing. We also confirmed that Pseudomyrmex plant-ants live in a kind of food autarky as they feed only on rewards produced by their host myrmecophyte, or on honeydew produced by the hemipterans they attend and possibly on the fungi they cultivate.     

Century-long synchrony of fossil algae in a chain of Canadian prairie lakes

Synchronous fluctuations in limnological variables among lakes may signal that large-scale environmental factors regulate lake ecosystem structure, yet most estimates of temporal coherence are based on short (<25 yr) time series, and little is known of how synchrony varies among biological taxa or of the causes of temporal coherence. Here we used time series of 13 fossil pigments from diverse algal groups in seven lakes of the climatically sensitive Northern Great Plains to demonstrate that algal synchrony (S) during the 20th century arose mainly from interdecadal increases in algal abundance rather than from interannual coherence. Synchrony of time series differed greatly among algal taxonomic groups (S = 0.0-0.75) and was not usually spatially structured, but decreased 83% following removal of long-term trends using exponential models or first-difference calculations. Overall, coherence was greatest for labile compounds chl a (S = 0.53) and fucoxanthin (S = 0.75), possibly reflecting the influence of postdepositional degradation processes on fossil time series. However, analysis of chemically stable pigments also indicated that synchrony was great for cryptophytes (as alloxanthin, S = 0.42) and diatoms (diatoxanthin, S = 0.37), taxa that bloom in spring. In contrast, synchrony of total algal abundance was low (beta-carotene, pheophytin a, S < 0.10), reflecting low interannual coherence of summer taxa including colonial cyanobacteria and chlorophytes. Unexpectedly, past variations in climate, resource use, and urbanization explained >85% of algal variation in individual lakes, but only 35% of synchronous algal fluctuations, suggesting that the factors controlling algal synchrony differ from those regulating algal abundance.     

Recent Recovery of Lake Water Quality in Southern Québec Following Reductions in Sulfur Emissions

Since 1985, monitoring activities have been conducted in a networkof 43 lakes comprising the Québec portion of the Long-Range Transport of Airborne Pollutants (LRTAP) program. The results to date indicate that Québec lakes generally are responding positively to the generalized decline in precipitation sulfate (SO₄ ^2-), with 40 of the 43 lakes now showing steep declines in SO₄ ^2- concentrations. The drop in SO₄ ^2- was associated with a significant decrease in Ca²⁺ concentrations in 77% of the lakes (67% for Mg²⁺ concentrations). Overall, the acid-neutralizing capacity was increasing in 19 lakes and decreasing only in three, while 21 lakes showed no temporal trends. Compared with previous trend studies of the LRTAP-Québec network for the period of 1985–1993, the longer period (1985–1999) shows a clear improvement, with the proportion of lakes that were acidifying changing from 24 to 7% and with the proportion of lakes that were recovering changing from 16 to 35%. These observations suggest that the recent drop in SO₄ ^2- deposition in the northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada was significant enough to allow chemical recovery for a significant proportion of Québec lakes.     

Tobacco Plants Detect a Decrease of Environmental Genotoxicity in Toulouse (France)

Tobacco plants, heterozygous for two independent loci involved in the chlorophyll parenchyma differentiation, allow the genotoxic effects of the atmosphere of the industrial estate South of Toulouse to be estimated. Somatic spots of green cellular colonies on yellow-green background, were counted to calculate the cellular rates of reversion. Two experiments were carried out in 1981, and in 1997. A general decrease of genotoxic effects was observed. These observations were interpreted as being due to a general decrease of the air pollution evaluated by the development of the concentrations of three toxic gases before and after the implementation of cleanup devices. The results obtained demonstrate the efficiency of this bio-indicator, which is easy to use and capable of integrating, in situ, genotoxic variations throughout the duration of plants' growth.     

The Precision of Precipitation Chemistry Measurements in the Canadian Air and Precipitation Monitoring Network (CAPMoN)

Precision estimates are presented for precipitation chemistry and depth measurements made by the Canadian Air and Precipitation Monitoring Network (CAPMoN). The estimates were made for daily measurements of ion concentration and precipitation depth as well as for weekly, 28-day, seasonal and annual precipitation-weighted mean concentrations and depths. The data on which the estimates are based were collected from collocated samplers at five CAPMoN sites during the period 1985 to 1993. The data pairs from the collocated samplers were used to calculate the between-instrument error defined as 1/2 times the difference between the paired sample concentrations (or depths). For all of the ion concentrations and depths, the between-sampler errors were found not to be normally distributed, but the normality of the distributions improved with the length of the (volume-weighting) time period considered. A set of quantitative measures of overall network precision were derived in absolute (mg L^-1) and relative (%) units. These included the Modified Median Absolute Deviation (M.MAD), the P90% probability values and the Coefficient of Variation (CoV). The latter, defined as the percent ratio of the M.MAD to the median concentration (or depth), represents the relative precision at the center of the error and concentration (and depth) distributions. Based on the CoV values, the relative precision of the CAPMoN measurements was very high (better than 4%) for SO ₄ ^2- , NO ₃ ^- , pH, H⁺, NH ₄ ⁺ , sample depth and standard gauge depth, and not as high (between 10 and <35%) for Cl^-, Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, and K⁺. The ions with the lowest median concentrations had the poorest relative precision since so many of the concentrations were at or near the analytical detection limit. Except for the sample and standard gauge depths, both the absolute and relative precision improved with the length of the precipitation-weighting period. Detailed statistical testing established that the precision of the daily measurements is dependent on a number of factors, the most dominant being sample depth and concentration, i.e., the absolute precision improves with increasing sample depth and decreasing concentration. The strength of these relationships diminished with the length of the precipitation-weighting period being considered. Laboratory-related sources of imprecision were found to account for less than 4% of the overall daily measurement imprecision for most species, while field-related sources of imprecision accounted for the balance. Specialized plots are shown which allow data users to estimate the absolute and relative precision at any concentration and depth value.     

Methodological uncertainties in multi-regression analyses of middle-atmospheric data series

Multi-regression analyses have often been used recently to detect trends, in particular in ozone or temperature data sets in the stratosphere. The confidence in detecting trends depends on a number of factors which generate uncertainties. Part of these uncertainties comes from the random variability and these are what is usually considered. They can be statistically estimated from residual deviations between the data and the fitting model. However, interferences between different sources of variability affecting the data set, such as the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation (QBO), volcanic aerosols, solar flux variability and the trend can also be a critical source of errors. This type of error has hitherto not been well quantified. In this work an artificial data series has been generated to carry out such estimates. The sources of errors considered here are: the length of the data series, the dependence on the choice of parameters used in the fitting model and the time evolution of the trend in the data series. Curves provided here, will permit future studies to test the magnitude of the methodological bias expected for a given case, as shown in several real examples. It is found that, if the data series is shorter than a decade, the uncertainties are very large, whatever factors are chosen to identify the source of the variability. However the errors can be limited when dealing with natural variability, if a sufficient number of periods (for periodic forcings) are covered by the analysed dataset. However when analysing the trend, the response to volcanic eruption induces a bias, whatever the length of the data series. The signal to noise ratio is a key factor: doubling the noise increases the period for which data is required in order to obtain an error smaller than 10%, from 1 to 3-4 decades. Moreover, if non-linear trends are superimposed on the data, and if the length of the series is longer than five years, a non-linear function has to be used to estimate trends. When applied to real data series, and when a breakpoint in the series occurs, the study reveals that data extending over 5 years are needed to detect a significant change in the slope of the ozone trends at mid-latitudes.     

A hydrological modeling framework for defining achievable performance standards for pesticides

This paper proposes a hydrological modeling framework to define achievable performance standards (APSs) for pesticides that could be attained after implementation of recommended management actions, agricultural practices, and available technologies (i.e., beneficial management practices [BMPs]). An integrated hydrological modeling system, Gestion Intégrée des Bassins versants à l'aide d'un Système Informatisé, was used to quantify APSs for six Canadian watersheds for eight pesticides: atrazine, carbofuran, dicamba, glyphosate, MCPB, MCPA, metolachlor, and 2,4-D. Outputs from simulation runs to predict pesticide concentration under current conditions and in response to implementation of two types of beneficial management practices (reduced pesticide application rate and 1- to 10-m-wide edge-of-field and/or riparian buffer strips, implemented singly or in combination) showed that APS values for scenarios with BMPs were less than those for current conditions. Moreover, APS values at the outlet of watersheds were usually less than ecological thresholds of good condition, when available. Upstream river reaches were at greater risk of having concentrations above a given ecological thresholds because of limited stream flows and overland loads of pesticides. Our integrated approach of "hydrological modeling-APS estimation-ecotoxicological significance" provides the most effective interpretation possible, for management and education purposes, of the potential biological impact of predicted pesticide concentrations in rivers.