Benefits of protected areas for nonbreeding waterbirds adjusting their distributions under climate warming

Climate warming is driving changes in species distributions and community composition. Many species have a so-called climatic debt, that is, shifts in range lag behind shifts in temperature isoclines. Inside protected areas (PAs), community changes in response to climate warming can be facilitated by greater colonization rates by warm-dwelling species, but also mitigated by lowering extirpation rates of cold-dwelling species. An evaluation of the relative importance of colonization-extirpation processes is important to inform conservation strategies that aim for both climate debt reduction and species conservation. We assessed the colonization-extirpation dynamics involved in community changes in response to climate inside and outside PAs. To do so, we used 25 years of occurrence data of nonbreeding waterbirds in the western Palearctic (97 species, 7071 sites, 39 countries, 1993–2017). We used a community temperature index (CTI) framework based on species thermal affinities to investigate species turnover induced by temperature increase. We determined whether thermal community adjustment was associated with colonization by warm-dwelling species or extirpation of cold-dwelling species by modeling change in standard deviation of the CTI (CTI_SD). Using linear mixed-effects models, we investigated whether communities in PAs had lower climatic debt and different patterns of community change than communities outside PAs. For CTI and CTI_SD combined, communities inside PAs had more species, higher colonization, lower extirpation, and lower climatic debt (16%) than communities outside PAs. Thus, our results suggest that PAs facilitate 2 independent processes that shape community dynamics and maintain biodiversity. The community adjustment was, however, not sufficiently fast to keep pace with the large temperature increases in the central and northeastern western Palearctic. Our results underline the potential of combining CTI and CTI_SD metrics to improve understanding of the colonization-extirpation patterns driven by climate warming.     

Interpreting sustainable development

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Ozone exposure among Mexico City outdoor workers

In researching health effects of air pollution, pollutant levels from fixed-site monitors are commonly assigned to the subjects. However, these concentrations may not reflect the exposure these individuals actually experience. A previous study of ozone (O3) exposure and lung function among shoe-cleaners working in central Mexico City used fixed-site measurements from a monitoring station near the outdoor work sites as surrogates for personal exposure. The present study assesses the degree to which these estimates represented individual exposures. In 1996, personal O3 exposures of 39 shoe-cleaners working outdoors were measured using an active integrated personal sampler. Using mixed models, we assessed the relationship between measured personal O3 exposure and ambient O3 measurements from the fixed-site monitoring station. Ambient concentrations were approximately 50 parts per billion higher, on average, than personal exposures. The association between personal and ambient O3 was highly significant (mixed model slope p < 0.0001). The personal/ambient ratio was not constant, so use of the outdoor monitor would not be appropriate to rank O3 exposure and evaluate health effects between workers. However, the strong within-worker longitudinal association validates previous findings associating day-to-day changes in fixed-site O3 levels with adverse health effects among these shoe-cleaners and suggests fixed-site O3 monitors may adequately estimate exposure for other repeated-measure health studies of outdoor workers.     

Dangerous student car drop-off behaviors and child pedestrian–motor vehicle collisions: An observational study

Objectives: The objective of this study was to examine the association between dangerous student car drop-off behaviors and historical child pedestrian–motor vehicle collisions (PMVCs) near elementary schools in Toronto, Canada.

Methods: Police-reported child PMVCs during school travel times from 2000 to 2011 were mapped within 200 m of 118 elementary schools. Observers measured dangerous student morning car drop-off behaviors and number of children walking to school during one day in 2011. A composite score of school social disadvantage was obtained from the Toronto District School Board. Built environment and traffic features were mapped and included as covariates. A multivariate Poisson regression was used to model the rates of PMVC/number of children walking and dangerous student car drop-off behaviors, adjusting for the built environment and social disadvantage.

Results: There were 45 child PMVCs, with 29 (64%) sustaining minor injuries resulting in emergency department visits. The mean collision rate was 2.9/10,000 children walking/year (SD = 6.7). Dangerous drop-off behaviors were observed in 104 schools (88%). In the multivariate analysis, each additional dangerous drop-off behavior was associated with a 45% increase in collision rates (incident rate ratio [IRR] = 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02, 2.07). Higher speed roads (IRR = 1.27, 95% CI, 1.13, 1.44) and social disadvantage (IRR = 2.99, 95% CI, 1.03, 8.68) were associated with higher collision rates.

Conclusions: Dangerous student car drop-off behaviors were associated with historical nonfatal child PMVC rates during school travel times near schools. Some caution must be taken in interpreting these results due small number of events and limitations in the data collection, because collision data were collected historically over a 12-year period, whereas driving behavior was only observed on a single day in 2011. Targeted multifaceted intervention approaches related to the built environment, enforcement, and education could address dangerous drop-off behaviors near schools to reduce child PMVCs and promote safe walking to school.     

Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

Environmental education,community mobilization and sustainable development in Hong Kong: a comparative perspective

SUMMARY

This paper focuses on efforts to promote environmental education and community mobilization around environmental issues in Hong Kong. It is primarily concerned with efforts directed at the broader community (i.e. the population as a whole) rather than with environmental education through formal school and college curricula. The paper draws on a recently completed study commissioned by the Environmental Campaign Committee, the principal source of financial support for such efforts undertaken by environmental NGOs, community groups and educational institutions in Hong Kong. The study examined how and to what effect the Committee had used its financial resources between 1994–1999. It also examined international experience with a view to recommending changes in the overall approach to environmental education and community mobilization initiatives and their funding in Hong Kong.

The paper suggests that the existing approach to community-wide environmental education and its funding in Hong Kong have suffered from various weaknesses, most notably the absence of an integrated and goal-oriented strategy, an over-reliance on a ‘top-down’ campaign-based approach, a failure to establish explicit linkages with the concept of sustainable development and to ground initiatives at the local neighbourhood and community levels, and a preoccupation with the financial inputs provided to support this work at the expense of effective monitoring and auditing of project outputs and benefits.     

Communities and bushfire hazard in Australia: More questions than answers

The issue of communities and their exposure to bushfire hazard is highly topical internationally. There is a perceived trend of greater exposure to bushfire risk which is exacerbated by increased levels of building in fire-prone areas or peri-urban regions. There is a need to clarify what we understand to be peri-urban regions, and how we conceptualise and describe the communities that reside in them, in order that efficient and effective services are provided. However, more questions arise for us. For example: Where are these communities located? What do we know about the people who live there? What are the implications for bushfire mitigation? Despite being problematic, locality remains important to the understanding of communities, bushfire hazard and delivery of services.     

Experimental evidence for herbivore limitation of the treeline

The treeline ecotone divides forest from open alpine or arctic vegetation states. Treelines are generally perceived to be temperature limited. The role of herbivores in limiting the treeline is more controversial, as experimental evidence from relevant large scales is lacking. Here we quantify the impact of different experimentally controlled herbivore densities on the recruitment and survival of birch Betula pubescens tortuosa along an altitudinal gradient in the mountains of southern Norway. After eight years of summer grazing in large-scale enclosures at densities of 0, 25, and 80 sheep/km2, birch recruited within the whole altitudinal range of ungrazed enclosures, but recruitment was rarer in enclosures with low-density sheep and was largely limited to within the treeline in enclosures with high-density sheep. In contrast, the distribution of saplings (birch older than the experiment) did not differ between grazing treatments, suggesting that grazing sheep primarily limit the establishment of new tree recruits rather than decrease the survival of existing individuals. This study provides direct experimental evidence that herbivores can limit the treeline below its potential at the landscape scale and even at low herbivore densities in this climatic zone. Land use changes should thus be considered in addition to climatic changes as potential drivers of ecotone shifts.