Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Iron, cadmium, and chromium in seagrass (Thalassia testudinum) from a coastal nature reserve in karstic Yucatán

The management of protected areas in karstic regions is a challenge because flooded cave systems form there and provide underground hydrological conducts that may link different zones. As a consequence, affectations to the protected areas can possibly occur as a consequence of human activities in remote areas and may therefore pass undetected. Thus, the monitoring of possible contaminants in these regions is becoming imperative. In this work, we analyze the concentration of essential (iron) and non-essential metals (cadmium and chromium) in the seagrass Thalassia testudinum that grows in Yalahau Lagoon, located in a near-to-pristine protected area of the Yucatán Peninsula, close to the rapidly developing touristic belt of the Mexican Caribbean. Salinity and silicate patterns show that Yalahau is an evaporation lagoon, where groundwater discharge is important. High iron (>400 μg/g), cadmium (>4 μg/g), and chromium (≈1 μg/g) concentrations were found in the area of highest groundwater input of the lagoon. High levels (5.1 μg/g) were also found near the town dump. In the rest of the sampling sites, metal concentrations remained near to background levels as estimated from other works. Temporal changes of concentrations in the seagrass tissues show also a local input and an input from the groundwater that could provoke an environmental problem in the Yalahau Lagoon in the near future.     

Carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus stoichiometry of plankton and the nutrient regime in Cabo Frio Bay, SE Brazil

This long-term study, performed during the years 2003–2005 and 2008–2009, investigated the carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) contents of the phyto- and zooplankton communities and the nutrient regime of Cabo Frio Bay, SE Brazil. The information intends to serve as baseline of the plankton C, N, and P stoichiometry for the calibration of biogeochemical and ecological models in support to future findings related to the local and regional phenomena of climatic change. Cabo Frio Bay is a small semienclosed system set adjacent to a region subject to sporadic coastal upwelling. Zooplankton exhibited average annual C, N, and P contents of 11.6?±?6.9 %, 2.8?±?1.8 %, and 0.18?±?0.08 %, and phytoplankton (>20 μm) 6.8?±?6.0 %, 1.6?±?1.5 %, and 0.09?±?0.08 %, respectively. The C/N/P ratios correspond to the lowest already found to date for a marine environment. The low C contents must have been brought about by a predominance of gelatinous zooplankton, like Doliolids/ Salps and also Pteropods. Average annual nutrient concentrations in the water were 0.21?±?0.1 μM for phosphate, 0.08?±?0.1 μM for nitrite, 0.74?±?1.6 μM for nitrate, and 1.27?±?1.1 μM for ammonium. N/P ratios were around 8:1 during the first study period and 12:1 during the second. The plankton C/N/P and N/P nutrient ratios and elemental concentrations suggest that the system was oligotrophic and nitrogen limited. The sporadic intrusions of upwelling waters during the first study period had no marked effect upon the systems metabolism, likely due to dilution effects and the short residence times of water of the bay.     

Nutrient baselines of Cerrado low-order streams: comparing natural and impacted sites in Central Brazil

The aquatic systems responsible for water supply in the Brazilian Federal District (FD) have been threatened by anthropogenic pressures, especially considering the expressive demographic increase in the region during the last decades. The purposes of this research were: (a) to assess the water quality in streams located in the FD by monitoring physical–chemical variables; (b) to define baselines for these variables among different ecological status categories. The 14 investigated streams were sampled between 2006 and 2009, in the dry (August–September, 2006, 2008, 2009) and rainy (March–April, 2008, 2009) seasons. All sampling sites were classified in four categories (“very impacted”, “impacted”, “in transition” and “natural”) using an adaptation of a rapid habitat assessment protocol. Differences in water quality among sites were generally well predicted in the four ecological status categories defined by the protocol, which showed a gradient in nutrient concentrations from reference sites classified as “natural” (medians: electrical conductivity?=?7.3 μS cm^?1; nitrate?=?0.040 mg L^?1; ammonium?=?0.039 mg L^?1; soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP)?=?<0.001 mg L^?1; total phosphorus (TP)?=?0.006 mg L^?1; ) to those classified as “very impacted” (medians: electrical conductivity?=?87.7 μS cm^?1; nitrate?=?0.247 mg L^?1; ammonium?=?0.219 mg L^?1; SRP?=?0.010 mg L^?1; TP?=?0.035 mg L^?1). Point sources inputs were the main factor for water quality deterioration. The nutrient baselines reported were relatively low when compared to data collected from reference areas in Brazil (e.g., São Paulo State) or temperate regions, especially for TP.     

Assessing the ecological condition of streams in a southeastern Brazilian basin using a probabilistic monitoring design

Prompt assessment and management actions are required if we are to reduce the current rapid loss of habitat and biodiversity worldwide. Statistically valid quantification of the biota and habitat condition in water bodies are prerequisites for rigorous assessment of aquatic biodiversity and habitat. We assessed the ecological condition of streams in a southeastern Brazilian basin. We quantified the percentage of stream length in good, fair, and poor ecological condition according to benthic macroinvertebrate assemblage. We assessed the risk of finding degraded ecological condition associated with degraded aquatic riparian physical habitat condition, watershed condition, and water quality. We describe field sampling and implementation issues encountered in our survey and discuss design options to remedy them. Survey sample sites were selected using a spatially balanced, stratified random design, which enabled us to put confidence bounds on the ecological condition estimates derived from the stream survey. The benthic condition index indicated that 62 % of stream length in the basin was in poor ecological condition, and 13 % of stream length was in fair condition. The risk of finding degraded biological condition when the riparian vegetation and forests in upstream catchments were degraded was 2.5 and 4 times higher, compared to streams rated as good for the same stressors. We demonstrated that the GRTS statistical sampling method can be used routinely in Brazilian rain forests and other South American regions with similar conditions. This survey establishes an initial baseline for monitoring the condition and trends of streams in the region.     

Using process-based models to filter out natural variability in observed concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in river water

Advances in process-based modelling of loads of nitrogen and phosphorus carried by rivers have created new possibilities to interpret time series of water quality data. We examined how model runs with constant anthropogenic forcing can be used to estimate and filter out weather-driven variation in observational data and, thereby, draw attention to other features of such data. An assessment of measured and modelled nutrient concentrations at the outlets of 45 Swedish rivers provided promising results for total nitrogen. In particular, joint analyses of observational data and outputs from the catchment model S-HYPE strengthened the evidence that downward trends in nitrogen were due to mitigation measures in agriculture. Evaluation of modelled and observed total phosphorus concentrations revealed considerable bias in the collection or chemical analysis of water samples and also identified weaknesses in the model outputs. Together, our results highlight the need for more efficient two-way communication between environmental modelling and monitoring.     

Cumulative influences of a small city and former mining activities on the sediment quality of a subtropical estuarine protected area

This study aimed to evaluate the sediment quality in the estuarine protected area known as Cananéia-Iguape-Peruíbe (CIP-PA), located on the southeastern coast of Brazil. The study was designed considering possible negative effects induced by the city of Cananéia on the sediment quality of surrounding areas. This evaluation was performed using chemical and ecotoxicological analyses. Sediments were predominantly sandy, with low CaCO₃ contents. Amounts of organic matter varied, but higher contents occurred closer to the city, as well as did Fe and Total Recoverable Oils and Greases (TROGs) concentrations. Contamination by Cd and Cu was revealed in some samples, while concentrations of Zn were considered low. Chronic toxicity was detected in all tested sediments and acute toxicity occurred only in sediments collected near the city. The principal component analysis (PCA) revealed an association among Cd, Cu, Fe, TROG, fines, organic matter, CaCO₃, and chronic toxicity, whereas acute toxicity was found to be associated with Zn and mud. However, because Zn levels were low, acute toxicity was likely due to a contaminant that was not measured. Results show that there is a broad area within the CIP-PA that is under the influence of mining activities (chronic toxicity, moderate contamination by metals), whereas poorer conditions occur closer to Cananéia (acute toxicity); thus, the urban area seems to constitute a relevant source of contaminants for the estuarine complex. These results show that contamination is already capable of producing risks for the local aquatic biota, which suggests that the CIP-PA effectiveness in protecting estuarine biota may be threatened.     

Combination effects of anticholinesterasics in acetylcholinesterase of a fish species: effects of a metallic compound,an organophosphate pesticide,and a pharmaceutical drug

The simultaneous presence of distinct compounds in the aquatic environment can be causative of various toxicological interactions. This scenario challenges ecotoxicologists, since the assessment of toxicological effects caused by the simultaneous presence of multiple substances is by far more complicated. An illustrative example can be given by mentioning the anticholinesterasic compounds: by studying the level of cholinesterase impairment of an exposed organism, it is possible to ascertain the level of exposure to all anticholinesterasics (despite their chemical classes and natures) that the organism was subjected to. In this work, we describe the effects of three chemically different, albeit mechanistically, and toxicologically similar compounds (copper, chlorfenvinphos, and pyridostigmine) on cholinesterases of the fish Gambusia holbrooki. The results showed that the combinatorial effects may be of considerable extent, even for levels of exposure that are close to the ones already reported in the wild, for each isolated compound.     

Predicting occurrence of juvenile shark habitat to improve conservation planning

Fishing and habitat degradation have increased the extinction risk of sharks, and conservation strategies recognize that survival of juveniles is critical for the effective management of shark populations. Despite the rapid expansion of marine protected areas (MPAs) globally, the paucity of shark‐monitoring data on large scales (100s–1000s km) means that the effectiveness of MPAs in halting shark declines remains unclear. Using data collected by baited remote underwater video systems (BRUVS) in northwestern Australia, we developed generalized linear models to elucidate the ecological drivers of habitat suitability for juvenile sharks. We assessed occurrence patterns at the order and species levels. We included all juvenile sharks sampled and the 3 most abundant species sampled separately (grey reef [Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos], sandbar [Carcharhinus plumbeus], and whitetip reef sharks [Triaenodon obesus]). We predicted the occurrence of juvenile sharks across 490,515 km² of coastal waters and quantified the representation of highly suitable habitats within MPAs. Our species‐level models had higher accuracy (? ≥ 0.69) and deviance explained (≥48%) than our order‐level model (? = 0.36 and deviance explained of 10%). Maps of predicted occurrence revealed different species‐specific patterns of highly suitable habitat. These differences likely reflect different physiological or resource requirements between individual species and validate concerns over the utility of conservation targets based on aggregate species groups as opposed to a species‐focused approach. Highly suitable habitats were poorly represented in MPAs with the most restrictions on extractive activities. This spatial mismatch possibly indicates a lack of explicit conservation targets and information on species distribution during the planning process. Non‐extractive BRUVS provided a useful platform for building the suitability models across large scales to assist conservation planning across multiple maritime jurisdictions, and our approach provides a simple for method for testing the effectiveness of MPAs.     

Female seed beetles, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Callosobruchus maculatus,</Emphasis> remate for male-supplied water rather than ejaculate nutrition

Female seed beetles, Callosobruchus maculatus, mate multiply even though association with males and copulations carry costs, such as injury to the genital tract. Multiple mating (polyandry) may, however, offset these costs through the acquisition of food and water, two material benefits hypothesized to be obtained from the large ejaculates produced by males. The material benefits hypothesis can be tested by increasing female access to nutrients and water, with the prediction that female mating frequency will decrease as copulation is no longer required to derive these materials. Females were given water, 5% sugar–water or baker’s yeast, and were compared with females deprived of these. We presented females with virgin males daily for 8 days and recorded female mating frequency, survivorship, and fecundity. Females provided with water and sugar–water decreased mating frequency. Thus, water, rather than nutrients in the ejaculate, appears to be important to females of this species. In addition, both life span and fecundity were extended for females in the sugar–water and water treatments. Since water is scarce in the arid environment in which this species is found, we conclude that polyandry provides material benefits to females that may offset some of the costs of associating with males.