Analyzing complex water governance regimes: the Management and Transition Framework

This paper presents the Management and Transition Framework (MTF), an interdisciplinary conceptual and methodological framework supporting the analysis of water systems, management processes and multi-level governance regimes. It serves to improve the scientific understanding of system properties and to give practical guidance for the implementation of transition processes towards more adaptive systems. Doing so requires a systemic perspective to embrace complexity and the wealth of interactions characterizing resource governance regimes. The MTF supports and provides guidance for an interdisciplinary approach in the social sciences and across the social–natural science interface.The framework integrates a range of concepts to develop a more coherent understanding of the complexity of water management regimes. Specific emphasis is given to adaptive capacity and learning processes. However, the MTF is not linked to one specific theory but provides a language that can be tailored to specific research questions and different theoretical approaches. The structured yet flexible approach is a condition for developing shared databases that allow comparative analyses over a wider range of case studies. The MTF does not promote panaceas but a diagnostic approach supporting context sensitive analysis without being case specific and thus not directly transferable.     

Heterozygosity‐Fitness Correlations and Inbreeding Depression in Two Critically Endangered Mammals

The relation among inbreeding, heterozygosity, and fitness has been studied primarily among outbred populations, and little is known about these phenomena in endangered populations. Most researchers conclude that the relation between coefficient of inbreeding estimated from pedigrees and fitness traits (inbreeding‐fitness correlations) better reflects inbreeding depression than the relation between marker heterozygosity and fitness traits (heterozygosity‐fitness correlations). However, it has been suggested recently that heterozygosity‐fitness correlations should only be expected when inbreeding generates extensive identity disequilibrium (correlations in heterozygosity and homozygosity across loci throughout the genome). We tested this hypothesis in Mohor gazelle (Gazella dama mhorr) and Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus). For Mohor gazelle, we calculated the inbreeding coefficient and measured heterozygosity at 17 microsatellite loci. For Iberian lynx, we measured heterozygosity at 36 microsatellite loci. In both species we estimated semen quality, a phenotypic trait directly related to fitness that is controlled by many loci and is affected by inbreeding depression. Both species showed evidence of extensive identity disequilibrium, and in both species heterozygosity was associated with semen quality. In the Iberian lynx the low proportion of normal sperm associated with low levels of heterozygosity was so extreme that it is likely to limit the fertility of males. In Mohor gazelle, although heterozygosity was associated with semen quality, inbreeding coefficient was not. This result suggests that when coefficient of inbreeding is calculated on the basis of a genealogy that begins after a long history of inbreeding, the coefficient of inbreeding fails to capture previous demographic information because it is a poor estimator of accumulated individual inbreeding. We conclude that among highly endangered species with extensive identity disequilibrium, examination of heterozygosity‐fitness correlations may be an effective way to detect inbreeding depression, whereas inbreeding‐fitness correlations may be poor indicators of inbreeding depression if the pedigree does not accurately reflect the history of inbreeding. Correlaciones Heterocigosidad‐ Adaptabilidad y Depresión Endogámica en Dos Especies de Mamíferos Críticamente en Peligro     

On-Scene Injury Severity Prediction (OSISP) Algorithm for Truck Occupants

Objective: The aim of this study is to develop an on-scene injury severity prediction (OSISP) algorithm for truck occupants using only accident characteristics that are feasible to assess at the scene of the accident. The purpose of developing this algorithm is to use it as a basis for a field triage tool used in traffic accidents involving trucks. In addition, the model can be valuable for recognizing important factors for improving triage protocols used in Sweden and possibly in other countries with similar traffic environments and prehospital procedures.

Methods: The scope is adult truck occupants involved in traffic accidents on Swedish public roads registered in the Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition (STRADA) database for calendar years 2003 to 2013. STRADA contains information reported by the police and medical data on injured road users treated at emergency hospitals. Using data from STRADA, 2 OSISP multivariate logistic regression models for deriving the probability of severe injury (defined here as having an Injury Severity Score [ISS] > 15) were implemented for light and heavy trucks; that is, trucks with weight up to 3,500 kg and ??16,500 kg, respectively. A 10-fold cross-validation procedure was used to estimate the performance of the OSISP algorithm in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results: The rate of belt use was low, especially for heavy truck occupants. The OSISP models developed for light and heavy trucks achieved cross-validation AUC of 0.81 and 0.74, respectively. The AUC values obtained when the models were evaluated on all data without cross-validation were 0.87 for both light and heavy trucks. The difference in the AUC values with and without use of cross-validation indicates overfitting of the model, which may be a consequence of relatively small data sets. Belt use stands out as the most valuable predictor in both types of trucks; accident type and age are important predictors for light trucks.

Conclusions: The OSISP models achieve good discriminating capability for light truck occupants and a reasonable performance for heavy truck occupants. The prediction accuracy may be increased by acquiring more data. Belt use was the strongest predictor of severe injury for both light and heavy truck occupants. There is a need for behavior-based safety programs and/or other means to encourage truck occupants to always wear a seat belt.     

The difference conservation makes to extinction risk of the world's ungulates

Previous studies show that conservation actions have prevented extinctions, recovered populations, and reduced declining trends in global biodiversity. However, all studies to date have substantially underestimated the difference conservation action makes because they failed to account fully for what would have happened in the absence thereof. We undertook a scenario‐based thought experiment to better quantify the effect conservation actions have had on the extinction risk of the world's 235 recognized ungulate species. We did so by comparing species’ observed conservation status in 2008 with their estimated status under counterfactual scenarios in which conservation efforts ceased in 1996. We estimated that without conservation at least 148 species would have deteriorated by one International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List category, including 6 species that now would be listed as extinct or extinct in the wild. The overall decline in the conservation status of ungulates would have been nearly 8 times worse than observed. This trend would have been greater still if not for conservation on private lands. While some species have benefited from highly targeted interventions, such as reintroduction, most benefited collaterally from conservation such as habitat protection. We found that the difference conservation action makes to the conservation status of the world's ungulate species is likely to be higher than previously estimated. Increased, and sustained, investment could help achieve further improvements.