Estimating separation distance loss probability between aircraft in uncontrolled airspace in simulation

In this article, collision probability between aircraft in uncontrolled airspace is estimated. For that purpose, a large database of aircraft trajectories in the vicinity of Saint-Cyr-l’Ecole airfield (France) is considered and maps of probability collision from simulated aircraft are then estimated. Since the collision between aircraft is a rare event, we applied an importance splitting estimation technique rather than crude Monte Carlo simulations to reduce the variance of the probability estimation. In this study, we demonstrate the high local variability of collision probability in uncontrolled airspace and conclude on the difficulty to set general probability requirements.     

基于熵理论的重大事故复杂链式演化机理及其建模

为完善重大事故演化的本质规律和探究事故后果累积放大原理,从安全物质学的视角提出事故链定义和形成机理,并解析其内涵;通过物质、能量和信息表征事故链演化过程的载体反映;基于物质流、能量流和信息流构建事故链式演化概念模型;基于熵理论和耗散结构理论论述事故阶段演化特性;在此基础上,提炼事故预防与控制策略框架。研究结果丰富了事故链式演化理论,可为事故预防与控制提供更深层次的理论基础。     

系统安全韧性的塑造与评估建模

为完善安全系统学理论体系,立足于理论思辨层面,基于韧性科学和安全系统学,提出安全韧性的定义,并解析其内涵,论述其研究意义。基于此,从3个维度构建系统安全韧性塑造体系的概念模型,并对其进行扼要阐释;深入剖析系统安全韧性塑造体系的作用机理,并构建其作用模型。基于系统安全韧性曲线,构建系统安全韧性评估的数学模型,并进行系统安全韧性曲线的对比分析。研究结果可为安全系统学研究提供新思路和新方法,系统安全韧性是安全系统学和韧性科学交叉领域一个值得关注的重要范式。     

Determinants of reproductive potential and population size in open populations of Patella vulgata

The importance of external and internal population processes in determining variation in reproductive output and variation in population size were quantified with model simulations for open populations of the sequentially hermaphroditic limpet Patella vulgata using field data from the Isle of Man and South West Ireland. Cross-correlation analyses of model outputs and elasticity analyses show that population dynamics are dominated by the effects of large females, and that recruitment adds little to reproductive output. However, populations experiencing low but highly variable recruitment appear male limited and recruitment pulses carrying young males into the population are correlated to reproductive output with a 2–5-year lag. We conclude that pulses in recruitment can be a major structuring force in these limpet populations, but site-specific post-recruitment processes will determine the relative importance of recruitment to population dynamics and the lag between recruitment and reproductive output.     

What enables coexistence in plant communities? Weak versus strong species traits and the role of local processes

Explaining the coexistence of species that basically depend on the same resources has been a brainteaser for generations of ecologists. Different mechanisms have been proposed to facilitate coexistence in plant communities, where space is an important resource. Using a stochastic cellular automaton simulation model we analyze - separately and in combination - the influence of different species traits and processes which alter local competition on the coexistence of plant species over a fixed time horizon. We show that different species traits operate on different time scales in competition. We therefore suggest the concept of weak versus strong traits according to short- or long-term exclusion of species differing in these traits. As a consequence, highly non-linear trade-offs between weak and strong traits can result in communities. Furthermore, we found that trade-offs based on physiological species traits such as plant lifetime, dispersal range and plant growth, did not support broad and long-term coexistence—further processes such as density-dependent mortality and light-dependent colonization were necessary. This suggests that coexistence in plant communities requires (stabilizing) local processes to support the (equalizing) trade-offs in species traits.     

Investigations on the binding mechanism of the herbicide simazine to dissolved organic matter in leachates of compost

14C-labelled simazine was composted together with biowaste on a pilot (m3) scale. The herbicide was quickly bound to the compost matrix. By aqueous extraction of 29 and 200 days old compost (equivalent to thermophilic and mesophilic phase of composting) only 4.2% and 3.1% respectively of the radioactivity in the compost samples could be extracted with water. Analysis of the extracts using high-performance size exclusion chromatography (HPSEC) revealed that the dissolved organic matter (DOM) had molecular weights ranging between 2 and 28 kDa. The amount of DOM-associated radioactivity increased from 53% (day 29) to 65% (day 200) of total extractable radioactivity. The type of binding of the 14C-labelled residues and the DOM was elucidated by silylation of humic matter and subsequent HPSEC. The data demonstrated that besides polar metabolites also intact simazine was bound to the DOM. A distinct shift from rather weak interactions to strong covalent linkages of simazine and its metabolites with increasing age of the compost was observed. The results showed that only low amounts of free simazine and its degradates can be extracted with water. We concluded that the shift towards stable covalent linkages is equivalent to a detoxification of the contaminant in aged compost. Consequently, the use of the analysed compost in its mature stage should not pose an environmental risk to the groundwater or the subsoil.     

轻度氧化处理纤维素生物降解性的初步研究

以纤维素为原料，通过二氧化氮和过碘酸化学氧化方法，在不同的低取代度条件下，有选择性地在纤维素葡萄糖残基的不同碳原子部位导入特定的取代基（羧基和二醛基），探讨不同的取代基对纤维素生物降解性能的影响．并将处理后所得的纤维素试验，通过土壤埋没，利用土壤中的微生物自然降解，然后测定分子量的变化，定量分析纤维素在不同取代基，不同程度化学处理后，其生物降解性能的变化。实验结果表明：（１）在纤维素葡萄糖残基Ｃ６     

Biological effects of wood ash application to forest and aquatic ecosystems

The present review aims to summarize current knowledge in the topic of wood ash application to boreal forest and aquatic ecosystems, and the different effects derived from these actions. Much research has been conducted regarding the effects of wood ash application on forest growth. Present studies show that, generally speaking, forest growth can be increased on wood ash-ameliorated peatland rich in nitrogen. On mineral soils, however, no change or even decreased growth have been reported. The effects on ground vegetation are not very clear, as well as the effects on fungi, soil microbes, and soil-decomposing animals. The discrepancies between different studies are for the most part explained by abiotic factors such as variation in fertility among sites, different degrees of stabilization, and wood ash dosage used, and different time scales among different studies. The lack of knowledge in the field of aquatic ecosystems and their response to ash application is an important issue for future research. The few studies conducted have mainly considered changes in water chemistry. The biotoxic effects of ash application can roughly be divided into two categories: primary and secondary. Among the primary effects is toxicity deriving from compounds in the wood ash and cadmium is probably the worst among these. The secondary effects of wood ash are generally due to its alkaline capacity and a release of ions into the soil and soil water, and finally, watercourses and lakes. Given current knowledge, we would recommend site- and wood ash-specific application practices, rather than broad and general guidelines for wood ash application to forests.