The importance of place in early disaster recovery: a case study of the 2013 Colorado floods

Recovery is an important but understudied phase in the disaster management cycle. Researchers have identified numerous socio-demographic factors that help explain differences in recovery among households, but are less clear on the importance of place, which we define as a household's locality and local governance. In this paper, we examine the influence of place on disaster recovery through a study of the 2013 Colorado floods. Our findings are based on data collected from interviews, observation of recovery meetings, and a survey of 96 flood-affected households. We show that place shapes a household's disaster recovery by structuring: (1) physical exposure to hazards; (2) which local government has jurisdiction over recovery decisions; (3) local planning culture and its approach to citizen participation; and (4) the strength of social capital networks. Our findings expand the recovery literature and show that place-level variables should be taken into consideration when conceptualizing household recovery and resilience.     

Testing for thresholds of ecosystem collapse in seagrass meadows

Although the public desire for healthy environments is clear‐cut, the science and management of ecosystem health has not been as simple. Ecological systems can be dynamic and can shift abruptly from one ecosystem state to another. Such unpredictable shifts result when ecological thresholds are crossed; that is, small cumulative increases in an environmental stressor drive a much greater change than could be predicted from linear effects, suggesting an unforeseen tipping point is crossed. In coastal waters, broad‐scale seagrass loss often occurs as a sudden event associated with human‐driven nutrient enrichment (eutrophication). We tested whether the response of seagrass ecosystems to coastal nutrient enrichment is subject to a threshold effect. We exposed seagrass plots to different levels of nutrient enrichment (dissolved inorganic nitrogen) for 10 months and measured net production. Seagrass response exhibited a threshold pattern when nutrient enrichment exceeded moderate levels: there was an abrupt and large shift from positive to negative net leaf production (from approximately 0.04 leaf production to 0.02 leaf loss per day). Epiphyte load also increased as nutrient enrichment increased, which may have driven the shift in leaf production. Inadvertently crossing such thresholds, as can occur through ineffective management of land‐derived inputs such as wastewater and stormwater runoff along urbanized coasts, may account for the widely observed sudden loss of seagrass meadows. Identification of tipping points may improve not only adaptive‐management monitoring that seeks to avoid threshold effects, but also restoration approaches in systems that have crossed them.     

Some Interpolation Estimators in Environmental Risk Assessment for Spatially Misaligned Health Data

Ecological regression studies are widely used in geographical epidemiology to assess the relationships between health hazard and putative risk factors. Very often, health data are measured at an aggregate level because of confidentiality restrictions, while putative risk factors are measured on a different grid, i.e., independent (exposure) variable and response (counts) variable are spatially misaligned. To perform a regression of risk on exposure, one needs to realign the spatial support of the variables. Bayesian hierarchical models constitute a natural approach to the problem because of their ability to model the exposure field and the relationship between exposure and relative risk at different levels of the hierarchy, taking proper account of the variability induced by the covariate estimation. In the current paper, we propose two fully Bayesian solutions to the problem. The first one is based on the kernel-smoothing technique, while the second one is built on the tessellation of the study region. We illustrate our methods by assessing the relationship between exposure to uranium in drinkable waters and cancer incidence, in South Carolina (USA).     

Rapid land use change threatens provisioning ecosystem services in miombo woodlands

Rural communities in sub‐Saharan Africa rely upon provisioning ecosystem services (ES) to support their livelihoods, yet in areas where rapid land use change is occurring the relationship between environmental change, provisioning ES availability and livelihoods is not fully understood. This relationship is explored here within a typical rural miombo woodland landscape in south‐west Tanzania, which is undergoing rapid land use change due to expanding tobacco cultivation. The types of provisioning ES used, who uses them, changes in their availability, and the possible future impacts of these changes were explored using a mixed‐method approach. Our findings identify 19 provisioning ES used by households regardless of economic status. Firewood, building materials, and fresh water are used by almost all households, and these are perceived to be declining in availability. Households identified this as a negative environmental impact of land use change and that provisioning ES loss would be ‘bad’ for their households. Given the multi‐purpose nature of miombo woodlands, an adaptive co‐management approach, which can achieve multiple objectives through encouraging participation, learning, and empowerment of local communities, could be an appropriate strategy to achieve sustainable land use management and maintain the provision of ES within miombo woodland landscapes of sub‐Saharan Africa.     

What does it mean when climate models agree? A case for assessing independence among general circulation models

Climate modelers often use agreement among multiple general circulation models (GCMs) as a source of confidence in the accuracy of model projections. However, the significance of model agreement depends on how independent the models are from one another. The climate science literature does not address this. GCMs are independent of, and interdependent on one another, in different ways and degrees. Addressing the issue of model independence is crucial in explaining why agreement between models should boost confidence that their results have basis in reality.     

Design of Experimental Streams for Simulating Headwater Stream Restoration1

Huang, Jung-Chen, William J. Mitsch, and Andrew D. Ward, 2010. Design of Experimental Streams for Simulating Headwater Stream Restoration. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1-15. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00467.x Abstract: Headwater streams flowing through agricultural fields in the midwestern United States have been extensively modified to accommodate subsurface drainage systems, resulting in deepened, straightened, and widened streams. To restore these headwater streams, partial or total reconstruction of channels is frequently attempted. There are different approaches to reconstructing the channel, yet there is little evidence that indicates which promises more success and there has been no experimental work to evaluate these approaches. This study designs three experimental channels – two-stage, self-design, and straightened channels – on a human-created swale at the Olentangy River Wetland Research Park, Columbus, Ohio, for long-term evaluation of headwater stream evolution after restoration. The swale receives a continuous flow of pumped river water from upstream wetlands. Using streamflow and stage data for the past 12 years, a channel-forming discharge of 0.18 m³/s was estimated from bankfull discharge, effective discharge, and recurrence interval. These stream channels, after construction, will be monitored to evaluate physical, chemical, and biological responses to different channels over a decade-long experiment. We hypothesize that the three stream restoration designs will eventually evolve to a similar channel form but with different time periods for convergence. Monitoring the frequency and magnitude of changes over at least 10 years is needed to document the most stable restored channel form.     

Injury severity analysis of accidents involving young male drivers in Great Britain

Introduction

Young male drivers are over-represented in traffic accidents; they were involved in 14% of fatal accidents from 1991 to 2003 while holding only 8% of all drivers licenses in the UK. In this study, a subset of the UK national road accident data from 1991 to 2003 has been analyzed. The primary aim is to determine how to best use monetary and progressive resources to understand how road safety measures will reduce the severity of accidents involving young male drivers in both London and Great Britain.

Method

Ordered probit models were used to identify specific accident characteristics that increase the likelihood of one of three categorical outcomes of accident severity: slight, serious, or fatal.

Results

Characteristics found to lead to a higher likelihood of serious and fatal injuries are generally similar across Great Britain and London but are different from those predicted to lead to a higher likelihood of slight injuries. Those characteristics predicted to lead to serious and fatal injuries include driving in darkness, between Friday and Sunday, on roads with a speed limit of 60 mph, on single carriageways, overtaking, skidding, hitting an object off the carriageway, and when passing the site of a previous accident. Characteristics predicted to lead to slight injuries include driving in daylight, between Monday and Thursday, on roads with a speed limit of 30 mph or less, at a roundabout, waiting to move, and when an animal is on the carriageway.

Impact on Industry

These results aid the selection of policy options that are most likely to reduce the severity of accidents involving young male drivers.     

Reductive dechlorination of a chlorinated solvent plume in Houston,Texas

Chlorinated solvents such as tetrachloroethene (perchloroethene, PCE) and trichloroethene (TCE) have been extensively used in various industrial applications for many years. Because neither are typically consumed through their various uses, they are often released to the environment through industrial application or disposal. Once released, PCE and TCE tend to migrate downward into groundwater, where they persist. In the current case study, cheese whey was used as a groundwater amendment to facilitate the reductive dechlorination of a chlorinated solvent plume underlying an auto dealer/repair shop in Harris County, Texas. From September 2010 to January 2014, over 32,000 gallons of cheese whey were injected into the subsurface resulting in a marked reduction in oxidation–reduction potential (ORP) and nitrate concentrations, coupled with an increase in ferrous iron concentrations. Statistical trend analyses indicate the primary contaminants, PCE and TCE, as well as the daughter product cis‐1,2‐dichloroethene (cDCE), all exhibited a positive response, as evidenced by statistically decreasing trends, and/or reversal in concentration trends, subsequent to cheese whey injections. Maximum concentrations of PCE and TCE in key test wells decreased by as much as 98.97 percent and 99.17 percent, respectively. In addition, the bacterial genus Dehalococcoides, capable of complete reduction of PCE to non‐toxic ethene, was found to be more abundant in the treatment area, as compared to background concentrations. Because cheese whey is a by‐product of the cheese making process, the cost of the product is essentially limited to transport. This study demonstrates cheese whey to be an effective groundwater amendment at a cost which is orders of magnitude lower than popular industry alternatives.     

The arrival and discharge of conjugated estrogens from a range of different sewage treatment plants in the UK

The occurrence of free and conjugated estrogens was examined in a survey of eleven sewage treatment plants (STPs) and their discharge water in the United Kingdom using grab sampling. The STPs included trickling filter with and without tertiary treatment, and activated sludge with tertiary treatment. For three activated sludge plants both influent and effluent samples were compared. For a further 8 STPs only the effluent was examined. The estrone-3-sulphate, estradiol-3-sulphate and estriol-3-sulphate concentrations (up to 20 ng L⁻¹) were typically 5-fold that of the respective free estrogen concentration in the effluents. This represents a substantial additional ‘potential’ estrogen load arriving in the receiving waters. Estrone-3-glucuronide was found at 9 ng L⁻¹, estradiol-3-glucuronide at 7 ng L⁻¹, and estriol-3-glucuronide at 32 ng L⁻¹ in sewage influent. Except on one occasion, no glucuronide conjugates could be found in the effluent. The results suggest in most cases glucuronide conjugates will be completely transformed in sewage treatment whilst sulphate conjugates will only be partially removed.     

The additionality problem with offsets: Optimal contracts for carbon sequestration in forests

Carbon offsets are a frequently discussed tool for reducing the costs of an emissions reduction policy. However, offsets have a basic problem stemming from asymmetric information. Sellers of offsets have private information about their opportunity costs, leading to concerns about whether offsets are additional. Non-additional offsets can undermine a cap-and-trade program or, if the government purchases them directly, result in enormous government expenditures. We analyze contracts for carbon sequestration in forests that mitigate the asymmetric information problem. Landowners are offered a menu of two-part contracts that induces them to reveal their type. Under this scheme, the government is able to identify ex post how much additional forest each landowner contributes and minimize ex ante its expenditures on carbon sequestration. To explore the performance of the contracting scheme, we conduct a national-scale simulation using an econometric model of land-use change. The results indicate that for an increase in forest area of 61 million acres, government expenditures are $5.3 billion lower under the contracting approach compared to a uniform subsidy offered to all landowners. This compares to an increase in private opportunity costs of just $110 million dollars under the contracts. Thus, the contracting scheme is preferable from society's perspective.