TOWARDS CHARACTERIZING AND PLANNING FOR DROUGHT IN VERMONT‐PART I: A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTWE1

ABSTRACT: In the Green Mountain state of Vermont, droughts of one form or another and of varying intensities, seventies, and areal extent are not uncommon occurrences. The 1990s were marked by at least three drought events of which the 1998 to 1999 was the most recent. In spite of this recurrence, ongoing drought monitoring and mitigative planning efforts are not as advanced as they could be and no official drought plan exists for the state. This article is the first of two in this volume. It summarizes the cascade of drought types that impacted the state during the 1998 to 1999 episode. From a number of precipitation statistics and drought indices, fine spatial scales (county or better) were found to best capture the character of drought impacts, while the weekly time step is recommended as the temporal unit around which to base planning and monitoring efforts. The companion article outlines a possible framework for drought planning efforts and highlights key constituencies to be included in the process.     

Storage and metabolism of radioactively labeled pyrrolizidine alkaloids by butterflies and larvae of Mechanitis polymnia (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae,Ithomiinae)

Summary. Tracer feeding studies with radioactively labeled pyrrolizidine alkaloids (PAs) were performed to attain experimental information about the specificity and mechanisms of uptake, metabolism and storage of PAs in the alkaloid sequestering ithomiine butterfly Mechanitis polymnia. Adult butterflies easily ingest the tracers offered dissolved in a saturated sugar solution. Feeding of [¹⁴C]rinderine (free base) confirmed that M. polymnia is well adapted to sequester and maintain PAs of the lycopsamine type. Approximately 80% of the ingested radioactivity can be recovered in methanol extracts of the butterflies over a period of at least 6 hours. Labeled rinderine is efficiently N-oxidized and transformed into a metabolite of still unknown structure. These two metabolites are formed in almost equal amounts and account for more than 90% of total radioactivity. After four hours the toxic free base is only detectable in traces. Radioactively labeled senecioylretronecine (free base), a PA that often accompanies PAs of the lycopsamine type in plants, is metabolized in a different manner. The toxic free base disappeared as fast as the tertiary rinderine, but the final products which accumulated in a stable ratio after 12 hours were mainly two polar metabolites of unknown structure; senecioylretronecine N-oxide accounts for less than 10% of total PAs. Labeled senecionine a macrocyclic PA, which never has been found in wild caught M. polymnia is only slowly N-oxidized. In females ca 50% of the ingested senecionine is still present as free base after 24 hours, whereas under the same conditions in males this percentage is only ca 20%. This difference in N-oxidation was the only significant sex-specific difference observed in various experiments. Larvae of M. polymnia which feed on Solanum tabacifolium, a plant that does not contain PAs, are able to sequester and partly N-oxidize labeled senecioylretronecine and senecionine. However, the storage is not very efficient; with the two tracers less than 5% of radioactivity remained in the bodies after 24 hours. Received 19 October 1999; accepted 24 November 1999     

The role of remittances and decentralization of forest management in the sustainability of a municipal-communal pine forest in eastern Guatemala

At the national scale, forest cover in Guatemala declined at an annual rate of 1.2% during the past quarter century because of settlement that removed primary forests in the northern region of the country; however, the majority of the population of Guatemala still resides in the densely populated central highlands and has extracted timber and fuelwood from adjacent forests for centuries. Using baseline data recorded in 1987 and 1996, this article reexamined the sustainability of a municipal-communal pine forest in San José La Arada, a municipality in eastern Guatemala. The pine forest declined from the period 1987 to 1996 because of overextraction of timber and fuelwood. Forest structure and forest use were reexamined from the period 1996 to 2007 to test the hypothesis that the forest continued to decline. Forest characteristics such as stand density, basal area, tree height, and evidence of forest use were measured to replicate the procedures from previous work at the study area. To understand changes in forest structure and forest use in the context of the rise in remittances and the introduction of decentralized forest governance that emerged since 1996, a household survey was conducted in two adjacent villages. Forest structure improved from 1996 to 2007. From 1996 to 2007, forest characteristics such as stand density, basal area, tree height, and forest regeneration improved and evidence of forest use decreased in the municipal-communal pine forest. The influence of large amounts of remittances from the United States and other regions of Guatemala to households in the adjacent villages and the decentralization of forest governance largely explains the shift toward forest sustainability in San José La Arada.     

Setting Realistic Recovery Targets for Two Interacting Endangered Species,Sea Otter and Northern Abalone

Failure to account for interactions between endangered species may lead to unexpected population dynamics, inefficient management strategies, waste of scarce resources, and, at worst, increased extinction risk. The importance of species interactions is undisputed, yet recovery targets generally do not account for such interactions. This shortcoming is a consequence of species‐centered legislation, but also of uncertainty surrounding the dynamics of species interactions and the complexity of modeling such interactions. The northern sea otter (Enhydra lutris kenyoni) and one of its preferred prey, northern abalone (Haliotis kamtschatkana), are endangered species for which recovery strategies have been developed without consideration of their strong predator–prey interactions. Using simulation‐based optimization procedures from artificial intelligence, namely reinforcement learning and stochastic dynamic programming, we combined sea otter and northern abalone population models with functional‐response models and examined how different management actions affect population dynamics and the likelihood of achieving recovery targets for each species through time. Recovery targets for these interacting species were difficult to achieve simultaneously in the absence of management. Although sea otters were predicted to recover, achieving abalone recovery targets failed even when threats to abalone such as predation and poaching were reduced. A management strategy entailing a 50% reduction in the poaching of northern abalone was a minimum requirement to reach short‐term recovery goals for northern abalone when sea otters were present. Removing sea otters had a marginally positive effect on the abalone population but only when we assumed a functional response with strong predation pressure. Our optimization method could be applied more generally to any interacting threatened or invasive species for which there are multiple conservation objectives. Definición de Metas de Recuperación Realistas para Dos Especies en Peligro Interactuantes, Enhydra lutris y Haliotis kamtschatkana     

Person-Situation interaction: Competing models of fit

This paper identifies three models of person-situation interaction in an effort to conceptually clarify and integrate previous research. Statistical criteria for each model are then developed and tested within one organizational setting. Results indicate partial support for each of the three interaction models, and suggest various improvements for person-situation interaction research.     

Remote sensing for land management and planning

The primary role of remote sensing in land management and planning has been to provide information concerning the physical characteristics of the land which influence the management of individual land parcels or the allocation of lands to various uses These physical characteristics have typically been assessed through aerial photography, which is used to develop resource maps and to monitor changing environmental conditions These uses are well developed and currently well integrated into the planning infrastructure at local, state, and federal levels in the United States.Many newly emerging uses of remote sensing involve digital images which are collected, stored, and processed automatically by electromechanical scanning devices and electronic computers Some scanning devices operate from aircraft or spacecraft to scan ground scenes directly; others scan conventional aerial transparencies to yield digital images. Digital imagery offers the potential for computer-based automated map production, a process that can significantly increase the amount and timeliness of information available to land managers and planners.Future uses of remote sensing in land planning and management will involve geographic information systems, which store resource information in a geocoded format. Geographic information systems allow the automated integration of disparate types of resource data through various types of spatial models so that with accompanying sample ground data, information in the form of thematic maps and/ or aerially aggregated statistics can be produced Key issues confronting the development and integration of geographic information systems into planning pathways are restoration and rectification of digital images, automated techniques for combining both quantitative and qualitative types of data in information-extracting procedures, and the compatibility of alternative data storage modes     

Demand and supply considerations for evaluating a new distance education program in natural resources planning and management in North America

Summary This paper describes the demand and supply information requirements to determine whether a curriculum for a new program, Natural Resources Planning and Management (NRPM), should be developed by Athabasca University (AU). Demand considerations assist in determining forecasted job opportunities and student needs. Supply considerations, including the type and location of existing natural resource programs and their student enrollment levels, assist in determining the enrollment level, the type of degree program, and that the student profile of AU's NRPM graduates will be high, particularly in western Canada. AU has, therefore, been advised to offer an undergraduate bachelor's degree in NRPM. This paper also serves as a model, for organizing demand and supply information for any new university or college program.Fred Curtis, is Professor and Co-ordinator of Regional Systems Engineering, at the University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada. His teaching and research areas include environmental and behavioural systems engineering. His recent publications focus on environmental impact assessment procedures, environmental mediation, natural resources planning and management, energy conservation and land use planning and distance education.