The economics of climate change in agriculture

This paper presents a conceptual frameworkof the impact of climate change onagriculture. It assumes that climatechange will result in a fertilizationeffect and a shift of agro-ecologicalconditions away from the Equator towardsthe Poles. The agro-ecological shift islikely to reduce yield because of reducedacreage and the fertilization effect willincrease yield. The aggregate effectdepends on whichever of the two dominates. The overall effect of climate change may beless significant than its distributionaleffects and the results are consistentwith previous empirical studies. Theimpact of climate change depends on itspace. Faster changes in climate willresult in higher cost. The assessment ofthe cost has to consider that climatechange is a dynamic phenomenon that mayrequire continuous adjustment. Environmental regulation that emphasizesconservation may increase cost ofadjustment and environmental policiesshould emphasize adaptation andflexibility.     

Mitigation of the Impact of Tropical Cyclones in Northern Australia through Community Capacity Enhancement

Community mitigation of hazard impact requires hazard knowledge and preparedness on the part of the members of diverse and complex communities. Longitudinal research in the tropical cyclone prone north of Australia has gathered extensive datasets on community awareness, preparedness and knowledge, in order to contribute to education campaigns and mitigation strategies. Data have been used to identify issues of vulnerability to cyclones and capacity to deal with the hazard. This has been developed as a community vulnerability and capacity model that may be applied to diverse communities in order to assess levels of capability to mitigate and deal with the cyclone hazard. The model is presented here in a simplified form as its development is evolving and ongoing.     

Prenatal diagnosis of congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) due to 21-hydroxylase deficiency by steroid analysis in the amniotic fluid of mid-pregnancy: Comparison with HLA typing in 17 pregnancies at risk for CAH

Amniotic fluid (AF) levels of 17-hydroxyprogesterone (17OHP) and testosterone (T) were determined at 16–17 weeks in 17 pregnancies at risk for CAH and results compared to 75 normal controls. The fetus was predicted to be unaffected in 12 cases on the findings of normal AF levels of both 17OHP and T and the latter allowed a correct prediction of fetal sex in all instances. HLA typing confirmed normality in 12 cases revealing 5 carriers, 5 homozygous normal and 2 indeterminate. Steroid levels of the 2 groups were similar. Three fetuses were predicted to be CAH affected on unambiguously high levels of 17OHP and T (in female only). HLA typing was in agreement, and the diagnosis was confirmed in 2 abortuses and a female newborn by physical and hormonal studies. In the last 2 cases AF levels of OHP and T were normal but HLA (A/B/C) genotypes were identical to the CAH affected siblings. Normal physical and hormonal findings in the 2 aborted fetuses would exclude the possibility of an in utero virilizing form of CAH. The discrepancy could be explained on the basis that the fetuses had an allelic form of 21-hydroxylase deficiency or on the basis of recombination (not fully tested). It is concluded that a fully informative prenatal diagnosis of CAH should not rely entirely on HLA typing but on hormonal studies.     

Prenatal sonographic diagnosis of intracranial haemorrhage: Report of a case with a sinusoidal fetal heart rate tracing,and review of the literature

The sinusoidal fetal heart rate pattern has been described in association with severe fetal anaemia, with fetal hypoxaemia, and with the administration of parenteral narcotics. Here, we report a case of decreased fetal movement in which a sinusoidal tracing was recorded. The sonographic diagnosis of a massive fetal intracranial haemorrhage was made. A non-interventive approach was taken and the fetus died soon after in utero. We review 28 previous cases in which the prenatal sonographic diagnosis of fetal intracranial haemorrhage was made, including the underlying maternal and fetal factors and neonatal outcomes. We propose that the sinusoidal tracing in this case was due to the intracranial bleed and suggest that fetal intracranial haemorrhage be considered in the sonographic evaluation of the fetus with a sinusoidal pattern.     

Prenatal sonographic assessment of early,rapidly growing fetal cervical teratoma

Although malignant transformation of fetal cervical teratoma is extremely rare, perinatal morbidity is high and usually related to the size of the tumour, which may compromise fetal swallowing and subsequently lead to upper airway obstruction. We present a case in which mid-trimester serial sonography demonstrated markedly rapid early growth of a lesion of this type between 17 and 19 weeks' gestation indicating the aggressive nature of this tumour, assisting parental decision to terminate the pregnancy. Histopathology confirmed grade 3 immaturity of the lesion.     

Neural tube defects in trisomy 18

In a retrospective survey, the incidence of neural tube defects in liveborn trimsomy 18 was found to be 6·2 per cent. Based on these data one would expect to find trisomy 18 in 1 of the 117 patients with myeloidysplasia; the incidence of trisomy 18 in dysraphic fetuses would be anticipated to be higher. These observations underscore the need for amniocentesis karyotyping of fetuses with neural tube defects, and the importance of careful examination of infants born with neural tube defects.     

环境税与资源定价

在25年改革期间,中国在向市场经济过渡方面取得了令人瞩目的进展.中国大部分的生产和分销都实现了市场化,市场机制的效率在中国经济持续高速增长中起着明显的作用.     

Enhanced twin pregnancy detection within an open neural tube defect and down syndrome screening protocol using free-beta hCG and AFP

We have applied our multimarker approach of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and free-beta human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) for Down syndrome screening to multiple gestations to assess its efficacy for improved detection of twin and triplet pregnancies. This study matched 225 cases of twin pregnancy and 39 cases of triplet pregnancy each with ten singleton pregnancies based on gestational week, race, time to receive sample, time of year of sample, and geographical area. The ratios of the MOM for each group at the tenth, 50th, and 90th percentiles were compared by the Wilcoxon test. Risks for twins were calculated using Bayes' rule, the age-related incidence of twins, and the levels of AFP and free-beta hCG. The tenth, 50th, and 90th percentiles of free-beta hCG MOMs in twin and triplet cases were 0.85, 1.99, and 4.51, and 1.38, 2.78, and 4.07, respectively. For AFP, the MOMs at these percentiles were 1.26, 1.91, and 2.99, and 2.02, 2.68, and 5.30, respectively. The twin and triplet distributions for each marker were statistically significantly different from the singleton distributions (P<0.0001) and from each other (P=0.0012). At a twin risk cut-off of 1 in 50, 77.4 per cent of all twin gestations can be detected in a second-trimester AFP and free-beta hCG screening protocol with 5.1 per cent of singleton pregnancies falsely identified as at risk for twins. Our dual marker protocol for mid-trimester pregnancy screening combining AFP and free-beta hCG can identify over 77 per cent of twin pregnancies in women less than 35 years of age. This benefit may contribute to an improved outcome of pregnancy by early detection of multiple gestation.