Modified Weibull multi-state models for the analysis of animal carcinogenicity data

The Peto test is the standard method of analysis used in carcinogenicity studies to compare tumor incidence in groups of animals. It assumes that tumors are either instantly fatal or have no effect on mortality and requires a judgement of the lethality of each tumor. To avoid this requirement, parametric multi-state models have been proposed. In addition these allow estimation of tumor onset and mortality rates. This paper considers two such models and presents a modification. It is shown that the modified models provide a better fit to carcinogenicity data and simulated data are used to show that the modified models provide a modest increase in test power relative to the Peto test.     

Biparental investment and reproductive success in a subsocial desert beetle: the role of maternal effort

Parastizopus armaticeps is a nocturnal subsocial detritivorous desert tenebrionid that produces very few offspring per brood. The two environmental factors that constrain reproduction, rapid sand desiccation rate and food scarcity, are countered by biparental effort. Males dig and extend breeding burrows, maintaining their moisture level; females forage on the surface at night for high-quality detritus, the larval food. This was shown to be a scarce and unpredictable resource for which there is high competition. When food was supplemented in a field experiment, offspring number and survivorship doubled and burrow failure due to desiccation dropped from approximately half, the typical failure rate for unsupplemented burrows, to zero. Food supplementation did not, however, increase larval foodstore size and there was no difference in the size of the offspring produced. Supplemented females reallocated their time, foraging less and digging more with the male. This change in maternal behaviour patterns resulted in deeper burrows which remained moist longer, thus extending the larval production period. Female foraging efficiency, particularly food retrieval speed, determined how much time females could allocate to digging, consequently increasing the reproductive success of the pair. Burrow depth and sand moisture level at the burrow base were the major correlates of reproductive success, but the scarcity and unpredictability of high-quality food on the surface and the competition for this resource influenced the number of offspring indirectly through their effect on female behaviour. Received: 29 November 1996 / Accepted after revision: 7 December 1997     

A Review of the Main Driving Factors of Forest Fire Ignition Over Europe

Knowledge of the causes of forest fires, and of the main driving factors of ignition, is an indispensable step towards effective fire prevention policies. This study analyses the factors driving forest fire ignition in the Mediterranean region including the most common human and environmental factors used for modelling in the European context. Fire ignition factors are compared to spatial and temporal variations of fire occurrence in the region, then are compared to results obtained in other areas of the world, with a special focus on North America (US and Canada) where a significant number of studies has been carried out on this topic. The causes of forest fires are varied and their distribution differs among countries, but may also differ spatially and temporally within the same country. In Europe, and especially in the Mediterranean basin, fires are mostly human-caused mainly due arson. The distance to transport networks and the distance to urban or recreation areas are among the most frequently used human factors in modelling exercises and the Wildland-Urban Interface is increasingly taken into account in the modelling of fire occurrence. Depending on the socio-economic context of the region concerned, factors such as the unemployment rate or variables linked to agricultural activity can explain the ignition of intentional and unintentional fires. Regarding environmental factors, those related to weather, fuel and topography are the most significant drivers of ignition of forest fires, especially in Mediterranean-type regions. For both human and lightning-caused fires, there is a geographical gradient of fire ignition, mainly due to variations in climate and fuel composition but also to population density for instance. The timing of fires depends on their causes. In populated areas, the timing of human-caused fires is closely linked to human activities and peaks in the afternoon whereas, in remote areas, the timing of lightning-caused fires is more linked to weather conditions and the season, with most such fires occurring in summer.     

Lavender essential oil decreases stress response of horses

Simple and soft means are needed to manage horse stress. For instance, essential oils such as lavender oil contain active principles that may mitigate stress responses in humans and animals. Here we developed a protocol to test the effects of essential oil on equine stress response. We tested the effect of lavender oil on horse stress. Twenty-eight Welsh horse fillies were divided into two groups: horses treated with a roll-on with 2 mL of vegetable oil (control) and horses treated with 2 mL of 10% lavender essential oil in vegetable oil. Horses were then subjected to a series of stress tests. Heart rates and stress behavioral indicators were monitored during the 30 min of the stress tests. Saliva was collected. Blood from six horses was sampled after lavender essential oil application to follow plasma linalool content and antioxidant efficiency. Results show that stress indicators such as heart rate, alert postures and defecations are lower in lavender oil-treated horses. Lavender essential oil also modified salivary cortisol. Pharmacokinetics of linalool in plasma displayed a peak 20 min after lavender essential oil application, thus confirming the effect of lavender oil. Overall, our findings demonstrate that lavender essential oil reduces the response to stress of horses placed in stressful situations.     

Marsh surface sediment deposition and the role of tidal creeks: Implications for created and managed coastal marshes

The need to understand the processes contributing to marsh sedimentation has become more urgent with the recent recognition of the role of tidal marshes as sea defences, as well as the many restoration efforts currently under way. This study was designed to build upon previous sedimentation work at Scolt Head Island by Combining techniques for measuring short-term sedimentation, with detailed assessment of hydroperiod, previously used only in comparison with longer-term accretion measurements or in micro-tidal systems. Measurements of water level, sediment deposition (at various distances from the creek margin) and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) (creek margin and an interior site) were made at Hut Marsh over three sequential over-marsh tides during May 1994. Sediment trap data show a significant trend of declining sediment deposition away from the creek when data from all three tides are combined. All tides show higher SSC on the flood tide than on the ebb tide at the creek margin location. There is little difference in flood and ebb SSCs at the interior site. An order of magnitude decrease in sediment deposition within 20 m on the creek shows the rapidity with which sediment is deposited on these marshes. Higher tides influence both the magnitude and pattern of marsh surface sediment deposition. Increased creek velocities on higher tides provide more potential for resuspension within the creek and increase the supply of sediment to the marsh surface. This study suggests that the design of tidal creeks may be essential for the development of sustainable coastal marshes in restoration projects.     

An estimating function approach to the inference of catch-effort models

A class of catch-effort models, which allows for heterogeneous removal probabilities, is proposed for closed populations. The model includes three types of removal probabilities: multiplicative, Poisson and logistic. The usual removal and generalized removal models then become special cases. The equivalence of the proposed model and a special type of capture-recapture model is discussed. A unified estimating function approach is used to estimate the initial population size. For the homogeneous model, the resulting population size estimator based on optimal estimating functions is asymptotically equivalent to the maximum likelihood estimator. One advantage for our approach is that it can be extended to handle the heterogeneous populations in which the maximum likelihood estimators do not exist. The bootstrap method is applied to construct variance estimators and confidence intervals. We illustrate the method by two real data examples. Results of a simulation study investigating the performance of the proposed estimation procedure are presented.     

Kinetic study of heterogeneous ozonolysis of alachlor, trifluralin and terbuthylazine adsorbed on silica particles under atmospheric conditions

To better understand the atmospheric behaviour of pesticides, heterogeneous ozonolysis of three herbicides (alachlor, terbuthylazine and trifluralin) adsorbed on silica particles were performed in a flow reactor. The experimental setup used in this study and previously validated (Pflieger et al., 2009) has been specially developed to investigate extremely slow reactivity. The pesticides were adsorbed on particles using a gas/solid adsorption equilibrium, in order to simulate atmospheric conditions. After exposure to ozone concentrations ranging from 5 to 41 ppm during 90 min to 6 h, the kinetics were calculated by comparing the initial and the remaining amounts of pesticides adsorbed on silica particles. This work offers the first results of heterogeneous ozonolysis of alachlor and trifluralin adsorbed on mineral particles. Although alachlor and terbuthylazine were expected to react with ozone, no degradation was observed which leads to a lifetime higher than 8 months towards ozonolysis (for 40 ppb of O₃). A significant degradation of trifluralin adsorbed on silica particles by heterogeneous ozonolysis was observed. The experimental data could be fit by both the Langmuir–Rideal and the Langmuir–Hinshelwood models resulting in atmospheric lifetimes (towards heterogeneous ozonolysis) of 40 and 32 days respectively (for 40 ppb of O₃). These results are discussed and compared to other studies.     

An urban boreal lake basin as a source of CO₂ and CH₄

Up to now, carbon gas fluxes from urban lakes in the boreal zone have seldom been studied. In summer 2005 we investigated fluxes from an urban boreal lake basin in southern Finland with long history of eutrophication and anoxia. Hypolimnetic CO₂ and CH₄ concentrations were high compared to other boreal lakes. During the open-water period, the lake basin acted as a source of CO₂ and CH₄ with fluxes of 2.10 mol m⁻² and 0.04 mol m⁻², respectively. Despite the high oxidation rate (83%), CH₄ flux was higher than in other lakes and CH₄ contributed 60% to Global Warming Potential. The ratio of carbon emission to accumulation was 4, i.e. emissions were an important route for carbon departure but less so than in rural lakes. Since the lake oxygen conditions affected nutrient availability, there was a positive feedback from hypolimnion to carbon uptake, which was reflected in gas concentrations.