CLIMATE CHHANGE SENSITIVITY ASSESSMENT ON UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN STREAMFLOWS USING SWAT1

ABSTRACT: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the effects of potential future climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). Calibration and validation of SWAT were performed using monthly stream flows for 1968–1987 and 1988–1997, respectively. The R² and Nash‐Sutcliffe simulation efficiency values computed for the monthly comparisons were 0.74 and 0.69 for the calibration period and 0.82 and 0.81 for the validation period. The effects of nine 30‐year (1968 to 1997) sensitivity runs and six climate change scenarios were then analyzed, relative to a scenario baseline. A doubling of atmospheric CO₂ to 660 ppmv (while holding other climate variables constant) resulted in a 36 percent increase in average annual streamflow while average annual flow changes of ?49, ?26, 28, and 58 percent were predicted for precipitation change scenarios of ?20, ?10, 10, and 20 percent, respectively. Mean annual streamflow changes of 51,10, 2, ?6, 38, and 27 percent were predicted by SWAT in response to climate change projections generated from the CISRO‐RegCM2, CCC, CCSR, CISRO‐Mk2, GFDL, and HadCMS general circulation model scenarios. High seasonal variability was also predicted within individual climate change scenarios and large variability was indicated between scenarios within specific months. Overall, the climate change scenarios reveal a large degree of uncertainty in current climate change forecasts for the region. The results also indicate that the simulated UMRB hydrology is very sensitive to current forecasted future climate changes.     

HYDROLOGICAL MODELING OF THE IROQUOIS RIVER WATERSHED USING HSPF AND SWAT1

ABSTRACT: The performance of two popular watershed scale simulation models — HSPF and SWAT — were evaluated for simulating the hydrology of the 5,568 km² Iroquois River watershed in Illinois and Indiana. This large, tile drained agricultural watershed provides distinctly different conditions for model comparison in contrast to previous studies. Both models were calibrated for a nine‐year period (1987 through 1995) and verified using an independent 15‐year period (1972 through 1986) by comparing simulated and observed daily, monthly, and annual streamflow. The characteristics of simulated flows from both models are mostly similar to each other and to observed flows, particularly for the calibration results. SWAT predicts flows slightly better than HSPF for the verification period, with the primary advantage being better simulation of low flows. A noticeable difference in the models' hydrologic simulation relates to the estimation of potential evapotranspiration (PET). Comparatively low PET values provided as input to HSPF from the BASINS 3.0 database may be a factor in HSPF's overestimation of low flows. Another factor affecting baseflow simulation is the presence of tile drains in the watershed. HSPF parameters can be adjusted to indirectly account for the faster subsurface flow associated with tile drains, but there is no specific tile drainage component in HSPF as there is in SWAT. Continued comparative studies such as this, under a variety of hydrologic conditions and watershed scales, provide needed guidance to potential users in model selection and application.     

Shorebird fauna changes of a small tropical estuary following habitat alteration: Biological and political impacts of environmental restoration

Numbers of shorebirds visiting the Paiko Lagoon Wildlife Sanctuary, a small tropical estuary located on Oahu, Hawaii, are compared before and after environmental restoration of the lagoon. An attempt is made to examine both the biological impacts and policy implications of the project. The biological results indicate that shorebird abundance did not increase following restoration. On the other hand, public perceptions regarding the ecological value of the lagoon suggest that in spite of a lack of biological benefit to shorebirds, the lagoon was perceived by the public, particularly local residents, as being more ecologically valuable because it had been aesthetically improved. The discussion focuses on the interplay between scientific and non-scientific factors in natural resource decision making.     

Ultrasonographic diagnosis of a fetal abdominal mass: A case of a mesenchymal liver hamartoma and a review of the literature

A case of a prenatally recognized hepatic mesenchymal hamartoma is presented and the literature reviewed. These tumors are benign and usually present in early infancy with symptoms that are related to the mass effect on adjacent organs. Radiologic methods used in the past to image this tumor include angiography and ultrasound. However, there is no specific radiologic finding, and, therefore, the diagnosis is usually made during surgery. Once the tumor is removed, the prognosis is generally good. With the increasing use of high resolution ultrasound in prenatal diagnosis, this rare tumor should be considered in the differential diagnosis of any multicystic mass found in the fetal abdomen. The recognition of a mass should then alert the physician to the need for early neonatal intervention.     

Apparent segregation of null alleles ascribed to deletions of the ornithine transcarbamylase gene in congenital hyperammonaemia

Ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) deficiency is an X-linked disorder of the urea cycle mapped to chromosome Xp21.1. Here, we show that apparent segregation of null alleles at the OTC locus and flanking polymorphic loci mimicked false maternity or false paternity in three affected families. Based on these observations, we suggest giving consideration to gene deletion when dealing with segregation of null alleles in OTC deficiency.     

The Use of Species-decline Statistics to Help Target Conservation Policy for Set-aside Arable Land

The set-aside scheme of the E.C. is a way of dealing with the socio-economic problem of food surpluses, but it also presents opportunities for environmental benefits. To help target set-aside policies, three groups of species (scarce plants, butterflies and grasshoppers) were analysed by present and past distribution and by habitat. In those biotopes which could be restored using set-aside land, chalk grassland has shown the greatest decline of scarce plants, and the two insect groups have declined the most in heathland, water-fringe vegetation and woodland edges. However, declines were also observed for other biotopes. These and other data suggest that conservation efforts on a set-aside land should not be concentrated on a particular kind of habitat, but should address a diversity of habitats in a diversity of locations. This conclusions has been used to help defined the 1993 set-aside schemes for the U.K.     

INTEGRATION OF A BASIN-SCALE WATER QUALITY MODEL WITH GIS1

ABSTRACT: Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have been successfully integrated with distributed parameter, single-event, water quality models such as AGNPS (AGricultural NonPoint Source) and ANSWERS (Areal Nonpoint Source Watershed Environmental Response Simulation). These linkages proved to be an effective way to collect, manipulate, visualize, and analyze the input and output date of water quality models. However, for continuous-time, basin large-scale water quality models, collecting and manipulating the input data are more time-consuming and cumbersome due to the method of disaggregation (subdivisions are based on topographic boundaries). SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), a basin-scale water quality model, was integrated with a GIS to extract input data for modeling a basin. This paper discusses the detailed development of the integration of the SWAT water quality model with GRASS (Geographic Resources Analysis Support System) GIS, along with an application and advantages. The integrated system was applied to simulated a 114 sq. km upper portion of the Seco Creek Basin by subdividing it into 37 subbasins. The average monthly predicted streamflw is in agreement with measured monthly streamflw values.