Uncertainty communication in environmental assessments: views from the Dutch science-policy interface

Scientific assessments of environmental problems, and policy responses to those problems, involve uncertainties of many sorts. Meanwhile, potential impacts of wrong decisions can be far-reaching. This article explores views on uncertainty and uncertainty communication in the Dutch science-policy interface and studies several issues concerning presentation of uncertainty information. Respondents considered uncertainty communication to be important, but it should be concise and policy relevant. Several factors influence policy relevance, including the place of an issue in the policy cycle, and its novelty, topicality and controversiality. Respondents held particular interest in explicit communication on the implications of uncertainty. Related to this, they appreciated information on different sources and types of uncertainty and qualitative aspects of uncertainty (e.g. pedigree charts). The article also studies probability terms, particularly for IPCC's 33–66% probability interval (‘about as likely as not’). Several terms worked reasonably well, with a median interpretation of 40–60%. Finally, as various target groups have different information needs and different amounts of attention for various parts of a report or communication process, it is important to progressively disclose uncertainty information throughout the communication. Improved communication of uncertainty information leads to a deeper understanding and increased awareness of the phenomenon of uncertainty and its policy implications.     

Eggshell colour does not predict measures of maternal investment in eggs of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Turdus</Emphasis> thrushes

The striking diversity of avian eggshell colour has long fascinated biologists. Recently, it has been proposed that the blue-green colour of some eggs may function as a post-mating sexually selected signal of female phenotypic quality to their mates to induce higher allocation of paternal care. It has been suggested that maternally deposited yolk carotenoids may be the specific aspect of reproductive quality that the female is signalling via eggshell colour. We use the known properties of the thrush visual system (Turdus sp.) to calculate photon capture for the four single cone photoreceptors, and the principal member of the double cone class for eggs in clutches of two introduced European thrush species (Turdus merula and Turdus philomelos) in New Zealand. We show that differences in the avian-perceived colours of individual eggs are not consistently correlated with different measures of maternal investment in the egg. Given the growing extent of the knowledge between maternal quality, parental investment and eggshell pigmentation across avian taxa, we encourage the use of avian perceptual modelling for testing alternative non-signalling explanations for the structural and physiological basis of these relationships.     

Inhalation of concentrated ambient particulate matter near a heavily trafficked road stimulates antigen-induced airway responses in mice

The goal of this study was to test the following hypotheses: (1) exposure to mobile emissions from mobile sources close to a heavily trafficked roadway will exacerbate airway inflammation and allergic airway responses in a sensitized mouse model, and (2) the magnitude of allergic airway disease responses will decrease with increasing distance from the roadway. A particle concentrator and a mobile exposure facility were used to expose ovalbumin (OVA)-sensitized BALB/c mice to purified air and concentrated fine and concentrated ultrafine ambient particles at 50 m and 150 m downwind from a roadway that was heavily impacted by emissions from heavy duty diesel-powered vehicles. After exposure, we assessed interleukin (IL)-5, IL-13, OVA-specific immunoglobulin E, OVA-specific immunoglobulin G1, and eosinophil influx as biomarkers of allergic responses and numbers of polymorphonuclear leukocytes as a marker of inflammation. The study was performed over a two-year period, and there were differences in the concentrations and compositions of ambient particulate matter across those years that could have influenced our results. However, averaged over the two-year period, exposure to concentrated ambient particles (CAPs) increased the biomarkers associated with airway allergies (IL-5, immunoglobulin E, immunoglobulin G1 and eosinophils). In addition, mice exposed to CAPs 50 m downwind of the roadway had, on the average, greater allergic responses and showed greater indications of inflammation than did mice exposed to CAPs 150 m downwind. This study is consistent with the hypothesis that exposure to CAPs close to a heavily trafficked roadway influenced allergic airway responses.     

Highly modular pattern in ant-plant interactions involving specialized and non-specialized myrmecophytes

Because Tachia guianensis (Gentianaceae) is a “non-specialized myrmecophyte” associated with 37 ant species, we aimed to determine if its presence alters the ant guild associated with sympatric “specialized myrmecophytes” (i.e., plants sheltering a few ant species in hollow structures). The study was conducted in a hilly zone of a neotropical rainforest where two specialized myrmecophytes grow at the bottom of the slopes, another at mid-slope, and a fourth on the hilltops. Tachia guianensis, which occurred everywhere, had its own guild of associated ant species. A network analysis showed that its connections with the four other myrmecophytes were rare and weak, the whole resulting in a highly modular pattern of interactions with one module (i.e., subnetwork) per myrmecophyte. Three ant species parasitized three out of the four specialized myrmecophytes (low nestedness noted), but were not or barely associated with T. guianensis that therefore did not influence the parasitism of specialized myrmecophytes.     

Über die Phasenprobe und die nächsten Abkömmlinge des Chlorophylls

The Science of Nature -