Modeling and forecasting daily maximum hourly ozone concentrations using the RegAR model with skewed and heavy-tailed innovations

This paper considers the modeling and forecasting of daily maximum hourly ozone concentrations in Laranjeiras, Serra, Brazil, through dynamic regression models. In order to take into account the natural skewness and heavy-tailness of the data, a linear regression model with autoregressive errors and innovations following a member of the family of scale mixture of skew-normal distributions was considered. Pollutants and meteorological variables were considered as predictors, along with some deterministic factors, namely week-days and seasons. The Oceanic Niño Index was also considered as a predictor. The estimated model was able to explain satisfactorily well the correlation structure of the ozone time series. An out-of-sample forecast study was also performed. The skew-normal and skew-t models displayed quite competitive point forecasts compared to the similar model with gaussian innovations. On the other hand, in terms of forecast intervals, the skewed models presented much better performance with more accurate prediction intervals. These findings were empirically corroborated by a forecast Monte Carlo experiment.     

Media coverage of the ‘UK flooding crisis’: a social panorama

A disaster referred to by the press as the ‘UK flooding crisis’ occurred between December 2015 and January 2016. This study employed three different levels of analysis to identify a multidimensional perspective adopted in the disaster reporting of the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC). These levels revealed details about the social actors and their interactions. The set of news exposed diverse viewpoints on the crisis, from loss and damage to distinct affected subgroups to the various social engagement actions of aid and the multiplicity of technical response measures. The conclusions highlight considerable social amplitude in the BBC's coverage; however, owing to the reductionist approach of this media communicator, the field of action involving different social actors was not very clear in the content of the news, particularly with regard to cohesion, conflict/obstruction, and concernthe concept of crisis in its essence. In addition, the paper suggests new questions for future reports. 1     

A genetic basis to community repeatability and stability

Recent studies have shown that genetically based traits of plants can structure associated arthropod and microbial communities, but whether the effects are consistent and repeatable across years is unknown. If communities are both heritable (i.e., related individuals tend to support similar communities) and repeatable (i.e., the same patterns observed over multiple years), then plant genetics may also affect community properties previously thought to be emergent, such as "stability." Using replicated clones of narrowleaf cottonwood (Populus angustifolia) and examining an arthropod community of 103 species, we found that (1) individual tree genotypes supported significantly different arthropod communities, which exhibited broad-sense heritability; (2) these findings were highly repeatable over three consecutive years (repeatability = 0.91) indicating that community responses to individual tree genotypes are consistent from year to year; (3) differences among tree genotypes in community stability (i.e., changes in community composition over multiple years) exhibited broad-sense heritability (H(C)2 = 0.32). In combination, these findings suggest that an emergent property such as stability can be genetically based and thus subject to natural selection.     

Patterns of mussel recruitment in southern Africa: a caution about using artificial substrata to approximate natural recruitment

Quantifying sessile marine invertebrate recruitment often requires destructive sampling or extrapolation from artificial substrata, the latter introducing the danger of artifacts. We measured intertidal mussel recruitment into mussel beds and into brushes at three-month intervals for five years across 3,200 km of southern Africa and determined substrata effects on recruitment rate. Recruitment into mussel beds showed a strong, coast-wide gradient, with high recruitment on the West coast, diminishing on the South coast, and increasing slightly on the East coast. At scales of 10 s of km, brushes reflected natural temporal recruitment variability, with a strong significant linear correlation between recruitment into brushes and into mussel beds. However, the relationship became semi-logarithmic when comparing among locations at a scale of 100 s of km. Artificial substrata thus reflect local natural settlement well but may be a poor indicator of it when spatial scales are large, particularly when mussel bed topography is complex, or localities have very different recruitment densities.     

Maintenance of variable responses for coping with wetland drying in freshwater turtles

Aquatic animals inhabiting temporary wetlands must respond to habitat drying either by estivating or moving to other wetlands. Using radiotelemetry and capture mark recapture, we examined factors influencing the decisions made by individuals in a population of freshwater turtles (Chelodina longicollis) in response to wetland drying in southeastern Australia. Turtles exhibited both behaviors, either remaining quiescent in terrestrial habitats for variable lengths of time (terrestrial estivation) or moving to other wetlands. Both the proportion of individuals that estivated terrestrially and the time individuals spent in terrestrial habitats increased with decreasing wetland hydroperiod and increasing distance to the nearest permanent wetland, suggesting behavioral decisions are conditional or state dependent (i.e., plastic) and influenced by local and landscape factors. Variation in the strategy or tactic chosen also increased with increasing isolation from other wetlands, suggesting that individuals differentially weigh the costs and benefits of residing terrestrially vs. those of long-distance movement; movement to other wetlands was the near universal strategy chosen when only a short distance must be traveled to permanent wetlands. The quality of temporary wetlands relative to permanent wetlands at our study site varies considerably and unpredictably with annual rainfall and with it the cost-benefit ratio of each strategy or tactic. Residency in or near temporary wetlands is more successful during wet periods due to production benefits, but movement to permanent wetlands is more successful, or least costly, during dry periods due to survival and body condition benefits. This shifting balance may maintain diversity in response of turtles to the spatial and temporal pattern in wetland quality if their response is in part genetically determined.     

Prey density and the behavioral flexibility of a marine predator: the common murre (Uria aalge)

Flexible time budgets allow individual animals to buffer the effects of variable food availability by allocating more time to foraging when food density decreases. This trait should be especially important for marine predators that forage on patchy and ephemeral food resources. We examined flexible time allocation by a long-lived marine predator, the Common Murre (Uria aalge), using data collected in a five-year study at three colonies in Alaska (USA) with contrasting environmental conditions. Annual hydroacoustic surveys revealed an order-of-magnitude variation in food density among the 15 colony-years of study. We used data on parental time budgets and local prey density to test predictions from two hypotheses: Hypothesis A, the colony attendance of seabirds varies nonlinearly with food density; and Hypothesis B, flexible time allocation of parent murres buffers chicks against variable food availability. Hypothesis A was supported; colony attendance by murres was positively correlated with food over a limited range of poor-to-moderate food densities, but independent of food over a broader range of higher densities. This is the first empirical evidence for a nonlinear response of a marine predator's time budget to changes in prey density. Predictions from Hypothesis B were largely supported: (1) chick-feeding rates were fairly constant over a wide range of densities and only dropped below 3.5 meals per day at the low end of prey density, and (2) there was a nonlinear relationship between chick-feeding rates and time spent at the colony, with chick-feeding rates only declining after time at the colony by the nonbrooding parent was reduced to a minimum. The ability of parents to adjust their foraging time by more than 2 h/d explains why they were able to maintain chick-feeding rates of more than 3.5 meals/d across a 10-fold range in local food density.     

In situ push-pull method to determine ground water denitrification in riparian zones

To quantify ground water denitrification in discrete locations of riparian aquifers, we modified and evaluated an in situ method based on conservative tracers and 15N-enriched nitrate. Ground water was "pushed" (i.e., injected) into a mini-piezometer and then "pulled" (i.e., extracted) from the same mini-piezometer after an incubation period. This push-pull method was applied in replicate mini-piezometers at two Rhode Island riparian sites, one fresh water and one brackish water. Conservative tracer pretests were conducted to determine incubation periods, ranging from 5 to 120 h, to optimize recovery of introduced plumes. For nitrate push-pull tests, we used two conservative tracers, sulfur hexafluoride and bromide, to provide insight into plume recovery. The two conservative tracers behaved similarly. The dosing solutions were amended with 15N-enriched nitrate that enabled us to quantify the mass of denitrification gases generated during the incubation period. The in situ push-pull method detected substantial denitrification rates at a site where we had previously observed high denitrification rates. At our brackish site, we found high rates of ground water denitrification in marsh locations and minimal denitrification in soils fringing the marsh. The push-pull method can provide useful insights into spatial and temporal patterns of denitrification in riparian zones. The method is robust and results are not seriously affected by dilution or degassing from ground water to soil air. In conjunction with measurements of ground water flow-paths, this method holds promise for evaluating the influence of site and management factors on the ground water nitrate removal capacity of riparian zones.     

Exhaust temperature profiles for application of passive diesel particulate filters to solid waste collection vehicles in California

To reduce public exposure to diesel particulate matter (DPM), the California Air Resources Board has begun adoption of a series of rules to reduce these emissions from in-use heavy-duty vehicles. Passive diesel particulate filter (DPF) after-treatment technologies are a cost-effective method to reduce DPM emissions and have been used on a variety of vehicles worldwide. Two passive DPFs were interim-verified in California and approved federally for use in most 1994--2002 engine families for vehicles meeting min engine exhaust temperature requirements for successful filter regeneration. Some vehicles, however, may not be suited to passive DPFs because of lower engine exhaust temperatures. The purpose of this study was to determine the applicability of two types of passive DPFs to solid waste collection vehicles, the group of vehicles for which California recently mandated in-use DPM reductions. We selected 60 collection vehicles to represent the four main types of collection vehicle duty cycles--rolloffs, and front-end, rear, and side loaders--and collected second-by-second engine exhaust temperature readings for one week from each vehicle. As a group, the collection vehicles exhibited low engine exhaust temperatures, making the application of passive DPFs to these vehicles difficult. Only 35% of tested vehicles met the temperature requirements for one passive DPF, whereas 60% met the temperature requirements for the other. Engine exhaust temperatures varied by vehicle type. Side and front-end loaders met the engine exhaust temperature requirements in the greatest number of cases with approximately 50-90% achieving the required regeneration temperatures. Only 8-25% of the rear loader and roll-off collection vehicles met the engine exhaust temperature requirements. Solid waste collection vehicles represent a diverse fleet with a variety of duty cycles. Low engine exhaust temperatures will need to be addressed for successful use of passive DPFs in this application.     

Field water balance of landfill final covers

Landfill covers are critical to waste containment, yet field performance of specific cover designs has not been well documented and seldom been compared in side-by-side testing. A study was conducted to assess the ability of landfill final covers to control percolation into underlying waste. Conventional covers employing resistive barriers as well as alternative covers relying on water-storage principles were monitored in large (10 x 20 m), instrumented drainage lysimeters over a range of climates at 11 field sites in the United States. Surface runoff was a small fraction of the water balance (0-10%, 4% on average) and was nearly insensitive to the cover slope, cover design, or climate. Lateral drainage from internal drainage layers was also a small fraction of the water balance (0-5.0%, 2.0% on average). Average percolation rates for the conventional covers with composite barriers (geomembrane over fine soil) typically were less than 12 mm/yr (1.4% of precipitation) at humid locations and 1.5 mm/yr (0.4% of precipitation) at arid, semiarid, and subhumid locations. Average percolation rates for conventional covers with soil barriers in humid climates were between 52 and 195 mm/yr (6-17% of precipitation), probably due to preferential flow through defects in the soil barrier. Average percolation rates for alternative covers ranged between 33 and 160 mm/yr (6 and 18% of precipitation) in humid climates and generally less than 2.2 mm/yr (0.4% of precipitation) in arid, semiarid, and subhumid climates. One-half (five) of the alternative covers in arid, semiarid, and subhumid climates transmitted less than 0.1 mm of percolation, but two transmitted much more percolation (26.8 and 52 mm) than anticipated during design. The data collected support conclusions from other studies that detailed, site-specific design procedures are very important for successful performance of alternative landfill covers.     

Enhancing the effectiveness of graduated driver licensing legislation

PROBLEM: Many states have enacted graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems in an effort to reduce the very high crash rates of young beginning drivers. This article addresses how to achieve the maximum benefit from GDL by ensuring compliance with protective restrictions. ENHANCING GDL THROUGH SYSTEM STRUCTURE: The major crash reductions due to GDL systems result from the protective restrictions during the initial two levels, which isolate novice drivers from the highest risk driving situations. Accordingly, GDL systems should include protective restrictions that adequately control the greatest dangers facing young drivers: multiple teen passengers and night driving before midnight. ENCOURAGING COMPLIANCE THROUGH SYSTEM STRUCTURE: Including protective restrictions that are supported by parents and teens will encourage compliance. Furthermore, linking a teen's advancement through GDL to demonstrated responsible driving will likely encourage compliance more than threatening punishment for violations. ENCOURAGING COMPLIANCE THROUGH ENFORCEMENT: Parents are in a prime position to enforce most GDL restrictions, but there is some evidence they do not enforce those restrictions that they consider too extreme. Little is currently known about the involvement of law enforcement in GDL systems, but there is potential for high visibility law enforcement activities to encourage compliance with restrictions. IMPACT ON RESEARCH, PRACTICE, AND POLICY: There is a need for better designed GDL systems in many states; more research is needed to examine compliance with restrictions and to evaluate enforcement efforts by parents and law enforcement.