Assessing global exposure to natural hazards: Progress and future trends

Global maps of natural hazard occurrence and risk are useful tools for policy makers and international development organizations. The ranking of countries or regions by relative exposure provides a metric for prioritizing strategies for natural hazard mitigation and risk management, and for planning for response and recovery. However, the calculations underlying global natural hazard risk mapping depend on the availability and quality of geophysical and socio-economic data, which are highly variable from region to region, and may impede the application of global rankings to regional decision making. This paper summarizes a recent synthesis of natural hazard occurrence, exposure and loss data—the World Bank's “Hotspots” project—and describes the advantages and difficulties in such an approach. Several suggestions for more highly resolved, regional and sub-national analyses are made.     

Correlates of bushmeat hunting among remote rural households in Gabon, Central Africa

Hunted wild animals (i.e., bushmeat) are a main source of protein for many rural populations in the tropics, and the unsustainable harvest of these animals puts both human food security and ecosystem functioning at risk. To understand the correlates of bushmeat consumption, we surveyed 1219 households in 121 rural villages near three newly established national parks in Gabon. Through the surveys we gathered information on bushmeat consumption, income, and material assests. In addition, we quantified land cover in a 5-km radius around the village center and distance of the village center to the nearest park boundary. Bushmeat was not a source of income for most households, but it was the primary animal protein consumed. Ninety-seven percent of households consumed bushmeat at least once during a survey period of 12 days. Income or wealth, land cover, distance of village to the nearest park boundary, and level of education of the head of the household were among the factors that significantly related to the likelihood of consuming any of the 10 most commonly consumed species of bushmeat. Household size was the predictor most strongly associated with quantities of bushmeat consumed and was negatively related to consumption. Total bushmeat consumption per adult male equivalent increased as household wealth increased and decreased as distance of villages to park boundaries increased. Bushmeat consumption at the household level was not related to unit values (i.e., price estimates for a good that typically does not have a market value; estimates derived from willingness to sell or trade the good for items of known price) of bushmeat or the price of chicken and fish as potential substitutes. The median consumption of bushmeat at the village level, however, was negatively related to village mean unit values of bushmeat across all species. Our results suggest that a lack of alternative protein sources motivated even the wealthiest among surveyed households to consume bushmeat. Providing affordable, alternative protein sources to all households would likely reduce unsustainable levels of bushmeat consumption in rural Gabon.     

Transition to a low-carbon city: lessons learned from Suzhou in China

Climate change has become one of the most serious challenges facing humanity; developing a low-carbon economy provides new opportunities for addressing this issue. Building a low-carbon city has been pursued by people with a high degree of enthusiasm in China. Different from actions at the national level and distinct from practices of developed countries, low-carbon development in Chinese cities should be placed on diverse concerns. Taking Suzhou of Jiangsu Province of China as a case city, this paper adopts a scenario analysis approach to explore strategic focal points in the transition to a low-carbon city. Within this transition, we mainly focus on the different contributions from two factors-economic restructuring and technological upgrading. Scenario analysis results show that 1) in the case of no breakthrough technologies, it is difficult to achieve absolute emission reductions; 2) technologies involved in optimizing energy structure and improving energy efficiency of basic service sectors should be highly emphasized in local planning; 3) in comparison with technological upgrading, economic structural adjustment could be a stronger contributor to mitigation, which is one of the main differences from developed countries. However, the key issue of economic restructuring is to promote the growth of emerging low-carbon industries, which requires not only a strategic choice of new industries but also an introduction of advanced low-carbon technologies. It is also found that establishing a local carbon emissions accounting system is a prerequisite and the first priority for realizing a low-carbon transition and government capacity buildings should be strengthened accordingly.     

Enhancing generic ecological model for short-term prediction of Southern North Sea algal dynamics with remote sensing images

Physically based numerical modelling follows from the basic understanding of the underlying mechanisms and is often represented by a set of (partial differential) equations. It is one of the main approaches in population dynamics modelling. The emphasis of the model introduced in this paper is on the simulation of short-term spatial and temporal dynamics of harmful algal bloom (HAB) events. Total suspended matter (TSM) concentration is one of the dominant factors for harmful algal bloom (HAB) prediction in North Sea. However, the modelling of suspended matter contains a high degree of uncertainty in this area. Therefore, this research aims to achieve a better estimation for the short-term prediction of harmful algal bloom development in both space and time by using spatially distributed TSM retrieved from remotely sensed images as physically based model inputs. In order to supply complete spatially covered datasets for the physically based model instrument: generic ecological model (GEM), this research retrieves TSM information from MERIS images by means of proper estimation techniques including biharmonic splines and self-learning cellular automata. A better estimation of HAB spatial pattern development is achieved by adding spatially distributed TSM data as inputs to original GEM model, and it proved that chlorophyll-a concentration in this area is very sensitive to TSM concentration.     

Reconstruction of atmospheric concentrations and deposition of uranium and decay products released from the former uranium mill at Uravan, Colorado

Radionuclide concentrations in air from uranium milling emissions were estimated for the town of Uravan, Colorado, USA and the surrounding area for a 49-yr period of mill operations beginning in 1936 and ending in 1984. Milling processes with the potential to emit radionuclides to the air included crushing and grinding of ores; conveyance of ore; ore roasting, drying, and packaging of the product (U(3)O(8)); and fugitive dust releases from ore piles, tailings' piles, and roads. The town of Uravan is located in a narrow canyon formed by the San Miguel River in western Colorado. Atmospheric transport modeling required a complex terrain model. Because historical meteorological data necessary for a complex terrain model were lacking, meteorological instruments were installed, and relevant data were collected for 1 yr. Monthly average dispersion and deposition factors were calculated using the complex terrain model, CALPUFF. Radionuclide concentrations in air and deposition on ground were calculated by multiplying the estimated source-specific release rate by the dispersion or deposition factor. Time-dependent resuspension was also included in the model. Predicted concentrations in air and soil were compared to measurements from continuous air samplers from 1979 to 1986 and to soil profile sampling performed in 2006. The geometric mean predicted-to-observed ratio for annual average air concentrations was 1.25 with a geometric standard deviation of 1.8. Predicted-to-observed ratios for uranium concentrations in undisturbed soil ranged from 0.67 to 1.22. Average air concentrations from 1936 to 1984 in housing blocks ranged from about 2.5 to 6 mBq m(-3) for (238)U and 1.5 to 3.5 mBq m(-3) for (230)Th, (226)Ra, and (210)Pb.     

The race is not to the swift: long-term data reveal pervasive declines in California's low-elevation butterfly fauna

Understanding the ecology of extinction is one of the primary challenges facing ecologists in the 21st century. Much of our current understanding of extinction, particularly for invertebrates, comes from studies with large geographic coverage but less temporal resolution, such as comparisons between historical collection records and contemporary surveys for geographic regions or political entities. We present a complementary approach involving a data set that is geographically restricted but temporally intensive: we focus on three sites in the Central Valley of California, and utilize 35 years of biweekly (every two weeks) surveys at our most long-sampled site. Previous analyses of these data revealed declines in richness over recent decades. Here, we take a more detailed approach to investigate the mode of decline for this fauna. We ask if all species are in decline, or only a subset. We also investigate traits commonly found to be predictors of extinction risk in other studies, such as body size, diet breadth, habitat association, and geographic range. We find that population declines are ubiquitous: the majority of species at our three focal sites (but not at a nearby site at higher elevation) are characterized by reductions in the fraction of days that they are observed per year. These declines are not readily predicted by ecological traits, with the possible exception of ruderal/non-ruderal status. Ruderal species, in slightly less precipitous decline than non-ruderal taxa, are more dispersive and more likely to be associated with disturbed habitats and exotic hosts. We conclude that population declines and extirpation, particularly in regions severely and recently impacted by anthropogenic alteration, might not be as predictable as has been suggested by other studies on the ecology of extinction.     

ACCURACY AND PRECISION OF NRCS MODELS FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: In the last 30 years, the National Resource Conservation Service's TR‐55 and TR‐20 models have seen a dramatic increase in use for stormwater management purposes. This paper reviews some of the data that were originally used to develop these models and tests how well the models estimate annual series peak runoff rates for the same watersheds using longer historical data record lengths. The paper also explores differences between TR‐55 and TR‐20 peak runoff rate estimates and time of concentration methods. It was found that of the 37 watersheds tested, 25 were either over‐ or under‐predicting the actual historical watershed runoff rates by more than 30 percent. The results of this study indicate that these NRCS models should not be used to model small wooded watersheds less than 20 acres. This would be especially true if the watershed consisted of an area without a clearly defined outlet channel. This study also supports the need for regulators to allow educated hydrologists to alter pre‐packaged model parameters or results more easily than is currently permitted.     

An exploratory study of self-regulating activities and their effects on job performance

The present study attempted to assess the extent to which job incumbents engage in performance relevant self-regulatory activities. Specifically, the degrees to which 62 insurance salespersons; (1) set performance goals, (2) monitored performance levels, and (3) exercised contingent self-reward or punishment with respect to goal achievement or goal failure were measured; and, the consequences that such activities had on performance were examined. The results of this study indicate that, in general, subjects set goals, but typically of a distal/result-orientated, as opposed to a proximal/behaviourally orientated-nature. Goal setting per se had no effects on sales performance, although an objective measure of goal difficulty was related to this criterion. With respect to self-monitoring, it was discovered that the greatest amount of performance feedback came from oneself and one's supervisor, as opposed to one's co-workers. In terms of performance, there was an interaction of feedback source and feedback preference such that the ability to generate internal feedback was related to performance only for individuals who had a preference for such internal feedback. There appeared to be no substantial amount of contingent self-reward occurring within this organization, although contingent self-punishment (in the form of self-criticism) was in evidence; and, such self-admonishment seemed to have detrimental effects on performance. While the three classes of variables independently explained 26 per cent of the variance in performance, the interactive effects suggested by theories of self-regulation (Bandura, 1977; Kanfer, 1971) were not in evidence.     

Conservation Implications of Introduced Game Birds in High-Elevation Hawaiian Shrubland

The Ring-necked Pheasant ( Phasianus colchicus ) and the Chukar ( Alectoris chukar ) are the dominant avifauna in high-elevation shrubland (2070–3000 m) of Haleakala National Park, Maui, Hawaii. We studied the food habits, ecological niche, and effects of these alien game birds on the native biota in this Hawaiian ecosystem. Analyses of crop contents indicated that pheasant and Chukar consumed predominantly fruits of native, woody dicots (39% and 47% respectively) and leaves (29% and 24% respectively) and flower parts (12% and 17% respectively) of alien, herbaceous dicots. Both species generally selected food items according to their relative availability, although other factors influenced choice of certain items. Invertebrates were a minor component of the game-bird diet, suggesting that their impact on native invertebrate populations is minimal. Pheasant and Chukar occupy, at least partially, an ecological niche once held by now-extinct or rare birds, and they appear not to be significant competitors with the endangered Nene. The role of these alien birds in facilitating seed dispersal and germination of native plant species is beneficial in restoring degraded ecosystems.