Navigating the Perfect Storm: Research Strategies for Socialecological Systems in a Rapidly Evolving World

The ‘Perfect Storm’ metaphor describes a combination of events that causes a surprising or dramatic impact. It lends an evolutionary perspective to how social-ecological interactions change. Thus, we argue that an improved understanding of how social-ecological systems have evolved up to the present is necessary for the modelling, understanding and anticipation of current and future social-ecological systems. Here we consider the implications of an evolutionary perspective for designing research approaches. One desirable approach is the creation of multi-decadal records produced by integrating palaeoenvironmental, instrument and documentary sources at multiple spatial scales. We also consider the potential for improved analytical and modelling approaches by developing system dynamical, cellular and agent-based models, observing complex behaviour in social-ecological systems against which to test systems dynamical theory, and drawing better lessons from history. Alongside these is the need to find more appropriate ways to communicate complex systems, risk and uncertainty to the public and to policy-makers.     

Radioactivity measurements in moss (Hypnum cupressiforme) and lichen (Cladonia rangiformis) samples collected from Marmara region of Turkey

The present study was conducted to compare the ¹³⁷Cs, ⁴⁰K, ²³²Th, and ²³⁸U activity concentrations in epigeic moss (Hypnum cupressiforme) and lichen (Cladonia rangiformis). The activity levels in 37 moss and 38 lichen samples collected from the Marmara region of Turkey were measured using a gamma spectrometer equipped with a high purity germanium (HPGe) detector. The activity concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs, ⁴⁰K, ²³²Th, and ²³⁸U in the moss samples were found to be in the range of 0.36-8.13, 17.1-181.1, 1.51-6.17, and 0.87-6.70 Bq kg⁻¹ respectively, while these values were below detection limit (BDL)-4.32, 16.6-240.0, 1.32-6.47, and BDL-3.57 Bq kg⁻¹ respectively in lichen. The average moss/lichen activity ratios of ¹³⁷Cs, ⁴⁰K, ²³²Th, and ²³⁸U were found to be 1.32 ± 0.57, 2.79 ± 1.67, 2.11 ± 0.82, and 2.19 ± 1.02, respectively. Very low ¹³⁷Cs concentrations were observed in moss and lichen samples compared to soil samples collected from the same locations in a previous study. Seasonal variations of the measured radionuclide activities were also examined in the three sampling stations.     

Using the analytical hierarchy process to assess the environmental vulnerabilities of basins in Taiwan

Every year, Taiwan endures typhoons and earthquakes; these natural hazards often induce landslides and debris flows. Therefore, watershed management strategies must consider the environmental vulnerabilities of local basins. Because many factors affect basin ecosystems, this study applied multiple criteria analysis and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to evaluate seven criteria in three phases (geographic phase, hydrologic phase, and societal phase). This study focused on five major basins in Taiwan: the Tan-Shui River Basin, the Ta-Chia River Basin, the Cho-Shui River Basin, the Tseng-Wen River Basin, and the Kao-Ping River Basin. The objectives were a comprehensive examination of the environmental characteristics of these basins and a comprehensive assessment of their environmental vulnerabilities. The results of a survey and AHP analysis showed that landslide area is the most important factor for basin environmental vulnerability. Of all these basins, the Cho-Shui River Basin in central Taiwan has the greatest environmental vulnerability.     

Estimation of suspended sediment concentration from turbidity measurements using artificial neural networks

Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is generally determined from the direct measurement of sediment concentration of river or from sediment transport equations. Direct measurement is very costly and cannot be conducted for all river gauge stations. Therefore, correct estimation of suspended sediment amount carried by a river is very important in terms of water pollution, channel navigability, reservoir filling, fish habitat, river aesthetics and scientific interests. This study investigates the feasibility of using turbidity as a surrogate for SSC as in situ turbidity meters are being increasingly used to generate continuous records of SSC in rivers. For this reason, regression analysis (RA) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) were employed to estimate SSC based on in situ turbidity measurements. The SSC was firstly experimentally determined for the surface water samples collected from the six monitoring stations along the main branch of the stream Harsit, Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey. There were 144 data for each variable obtained on a fortnightly basis during March 2009 and February 2010. In the ANN method, the used data for training, testing and validation sets are 108, 24 and 12 of total 144 data, respectively. As the results of analyses, the smallest mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) values for validation set were obtained from the ANN method with 11.40 and 17.87, respectively. However these were 19.12 and 25.09 for RA. It was concluded that turbidity could be a surrogate for SSC in the streams, and the ANNs method used for the estimation of SSC provided acceptable results.     

Characterization and assessment of a large-scale domestic advanced wastewater treatment plant in Turkey

The paper presents new studies about the removal efficiencies and characterization of the Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plant (MWWTP) in Kayseri, Turkey, which is serving for 800,000 population equivalents with the capacity of 110,000 m(3)/day, between 2006 and 2009. Kayseri discharges its effluents to Karasu Creek that downstream joins the Kizilirmak river, the longest river in Turkey discharging into the Black Sea. Four years of operation data between 2006 and 2009 calendar years were obtained from KASKI General Directorate. Influent and effluent samples were collected daily and suspended solids (SS), chemical oxygen demand (COD), biochemical oxygen demand in 5 days (BOD(5)), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) were measured, aiming to study the evolution of the removal efficiencies for each year. The following yearly mean removal efficiencies were performed in the treatment plant: 94%, 97%, 97%, 95% for SS; 94%, 96%, 95%, 95% for COD; 98%, 98%, 98%, 98% for BOD(5); 84%, 87%, 89%, 82% for TN; and 71%, 86%, 80%, 86% for TP, in 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009, respectively. The performance of Kayseri MWWTP was given both in terms of influent and effluent quality and in comparison with the current legislation on discharge limits to the receiving body. During the studied period, mean concentrations in the effluent did not exceed the imposed limits, but sometimes, higher values were noticed for SS, TN, and TP. In conclusion, the plant performances concerning these parameters were excellent and Kayseri MWWTP was operating efficiently according to the conventional control parameters.     

A review on human attitudes towards reptiles in Brazil

For many millennia humans and reptiles have interacted, but the attitude of humans towards these animals has depended on culture, environment, and personal experience. At least 719 reptile species are known to occur in Brazil and about 11% of this fauna has been exploited for many different purposes, including bushmeat, leather, ornamental and magic/religious uses, and as folk medicines. Brazil can therefore serve as an interesting case study for better understanding reptile use by human societies, and the present paper catalogues some of the reptile species being used in Brazil and discusses implications for their conservation. A literature review indicated that 81 reptile species are culturally important in this country, with 47 (58%) species having multiple uses, 54 being used for medicinal purposes, 38 as food, 28 for ornamental or decorative purposes, 20 used in magic/religious practices, 18 as pets, and 40 are commonly killed when they come into contact with humans. Regarding their conservation status, 30 (37.5%) are included on State's Red List, Brazilian Red List or the IUCN Red List. There are many forms of interaction between reptiles and humans in Brazil-although most of them are quite negative in terms of wildlife conservation-which reinforces the importance of understanding such uses and interactions in the context of protecting reptiles in Brazil. A better understanding of the cultural, social, and traditional roles of these reptiles is fundamental to establishing management plans for their sustainable use.     

How to improve reliability in groundwater analysis: over a decade of experience with external quality control in field campaigns on volatile halogenated compounds

The reliability in measurement results obtained during environmental monitoring is crucial for the assessment and further planning of remediation efforts on the respective contaminated sites by the responsible authorities. A case study concerned with groundwater contaminated with perchloroethylene, trichloroethylene and 1,1,2-trichlorotrifluoroethane including their degradation products which involves private contract laboratories and an independent provider of quality assurance (QA) is presented. The experience gained with biannual monitoring campaigns over 14 years indicates that the selection of contractors on basis of accreditation status and successful performance in interlaboratory comparisons are not sufficient. Rather the auditing of the contractors by the QA provider prior to each campaign and the crosschecking of selected monitoring samples by the QA provider led to a lasting improvement of reliability in the contractors' measurement results. A mean deviation of 20% from the reference value determined by the QA provider for the crosschecked samples was reached.     

Implementing In-Stream Nutrient Processes in Large-Scale Landscape Modeling for the Impact Assessment on Water Quality

For a long time, watershed models focused on the transport of chemicals from the terrestrial part of the watershed to the surface water bodies by leaching and erosion. After the substances had reached the surface water, they were routed through the channel network often without any further transformation. Today, there is a need to extend watershed models with in-stream processes to bring them closer to natural conditions and to enhance their usability as support tools for water management and water quality policies. This paper presents experience with implementing in-stream processes in a ecohydrological dynamic watershed model and its application on the large scale in the Saale River basin in Germany. Results demonstrate that new implemented water quality parameters like chlorophyll a concentrations or oxygen amount in the reach can be reproduced quite well, although the model results, compared with results achieved without taking into account algal and transformation processes in the river, show obvious improvement only for some of the examined nutrients. Finally, some climate and water management scenarios expected to impact in-stream processes in the Saale basin were run. Their results illustrate the relative importance of physical boundary conditions on the amount and concentration of the phytoplankton, which leads to the conclusion that measures to improve water quality should not only take nutrient inputs into account but also climate influences and river morphology.     

Human health risk assessment of heavy metals in a replaced urban industrial area of Qingdao,China

The aim of this study was risk characterization of a replaced urban industrial land located north of Qingdao, in relation to heavy metals values. Soil concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cu, Ni, Cr, and Zn were analyzed. It was observed that the components of Cd, Pb, Cu, Ni, Cr, and Zn are about 2.22, 8.07, 4.70, 6.81, 2.65, and 3.0-folds, respectively, when compared with the local natural background values in Qingdao. The spatial distribution of heavy metals indicated that these hotspots for Cr and Zn located in the southwestern part, Ni and Cd in the middle of the south area, Pb in the northwest, and Cu in the middle of the east area. The values of pollution index and Nemerow integrated pollution index revealed that 100 % of soil samples were moderately or heavily contaminated by six heavy metals. From these results, human health risk assessment for sensitive population was performed according to two different land uses. For non-carcinogenic risk, the direct oral ingestion appeared to be the main exposure pathway followed by dermal and inhalation absorption. The HI values of Pb and Cr characterized for children were larger than 1, while HI values of each metal for adults in two scenarios were lower than 1. Besides, carcinogenic risk from inhalation exposure to Cr for children and adults in two scenarios all exceeded the safety limit.     

Bioaccumulation of metals in common carp (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cyprinus carpio</Emphasis> L.) from water bodies of Anatolia (Turkey): a review with implications for fisheries and human food consumption

Although fish is widely consumed by humans for its nutritional properties, accumulation of heavy metals can pose serious health hazards. Widespread common carp Cyprinus carpio is cultured worldwide and represents an economically important species for fisheries in several countries. These include Turkey, where C. carpio often makes for a large part of the sales of the locally marketed fish and also for a traditional dish. This study provides a review of bioaccumulation of metals in tissues of C. carpio from water bodies of Anatolia and also includes reference to worldwide studies. From 42 water bodies across the region, 27 metals in total were studied, of which Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn were the most widely analysed, mainly in the muscle, liver and gill tissues. Amongst the potentially toxic metals, Cd, Cr and Pb occurred in several water bodies at concentrations not only above maximum allowed limits but also higher relative to other water bodies worldwide, even though As, Hg and Ni were also sometimes present at potentially hazardous concentrations. The essential metals Cu, Fe, Mn, Se and Zn were detected at various concentrations, with the latter two occasionally above limit. All water bodies flagged as having especially critical (i.e. above limit) concentrations of toxic metals supported C. carpio fisheries from highly populated regions, raising concern about food safety and calling for preventative measures. Given the significantly lower bioaccumulation levels in the muscle relative to the liver and gill tissues, it is suggested that consumption of C. carpio as fillets may be safer than after processing into e.g. meat balls and sausages. The limits of 1.0 μg/g for Cr and 1.15 μg/g for Se, currently lacking from the Turkish food safety legislation, are proposed, and it is suggested that a similar meta-analytical approach as adopted in this study may benefit other countries where C. carpio represents an important fisheries resource.