A Multivariable Model for Atmospheric Dispersion Predictions

In conjunction with a 15-month air quality survey of Jacksonville, Fia., a mathematical model has been developed to describe the dispersion of atmospheric pollutants. The source inventory used with the model was compiled, in part, from the data obtained from the sampling of all major sources within the area. The major sources were considered separately from the one-mile square area sources which accounted for the remainder of the emissions. Meteorological data was recorded continuously in the city including vertical temperature observations to 750 ft. The model was compiled in FORTRAN and can be used for both gaseous and particulate pollutants, by utilizing proper decay rates. The variant nature of meteorological parameters and emission rates are considered. The ground level concentrations of several pollutants which were determined for 24 hr periods at 11 sites and continuously at two other sites were used to check the model. A limited tracer study was carried out in conjunction with the project.     

Pennsylvania’s Compuiterized Air Monitoring System

The Pennsylvania Air Pollution Commission has developed a regulatory program based upon the control of local air pollution problems and reduction of pollutant levels in air basins. The geographical boundaries of 10 air basins have been established. The Commission’s air basin regulations will provide for the reduction of over-all pollutant levels and for emergency procedures in the event of adverse meteorological conditions. The paper discusses the format and objectives of the program.

In order to effectively enforce the air basin regulations and maintain the necessary surveillance of the state’s air quality, a "computerized real time on-line integrated air monitoring-data handling system" has been designed. The system will incorporate a network to constantly monitor the air in each air basin.The primary objectives of the system are: 1. Constant surveillance of air pollution in the air basins.

2. Provide information on air pollution potential alerts.

3. Aid in further development of air quality criteria and regulations.

The air monitoring network is estimated to include approximately 25 remote stations. Each remote will contain air pollution and meteorological sampling equipment and hardware to telemeter to a central station. The data will be transmitted over leased telephone lines. The central station in Harrisburg will contain the necessary hardware to receive and process data, calculate and display results and permit supervisory control of the network. Output options will include immediate display of edited data, command and alarm information, and presentation of statistical results.

Although the air monitoring system is one of the principle ingredients of the program, the air basin concept encompasses other component systems designed to knit together the entire air pollution control program in Pennsylvania.     

Determination of the Detailed Hydrocarbon Composition and Potential Atmospheric Reactivity of Full-Range Motor Gasolines

The quantitative data obtained with a capillary GLC method, which is used to determine the individual C₃-C₁₂ hydrocarbons in full-range motor gasolines, have been employed in a computer program to calculate the hydrocarbon composition of the vapor in equilibrium with a gasoline at 100°F, as well as the equilibrium vapor-pressure of the gasoline at that temperature. The method used for computation is similar to that previously described by McEwen, assuming the gasoline to behave as an ideal liquid. Also calculated is the potential atmospheric reactivity of this equilibrium vapor relative to that from other gasolines when specific reactivity weighting factors for the individual hydrocarbons are employed. Calculated total vapor-pressure data agree well with experimental Reid vapor-pressure data obtained for typical premium-grade gasolines. Definite differences were observed in the relative potential atmospheric reactivities calculated at 100°F for the equilibrium vapors from the test gasolines.     

Ethylene: An Urban Air Pollutant

Ethylene is an unusual air pollutant in that it is a plant hormone. Motor vehicle exhaust is a primary source. In the Washington, D. C, area, ethylene concentrations ranged from 700 ppb in the city center to 39 ppb in areas outside the circumferential beltway. Plants grown in these concentrations of ethylene, using controlled environment chambers, exhibited typical symptoms of ethylene toxicity: reduced growth, premature senescence, and reduced flowering and fruit production. When plants were grown in carbon-filtered ambient air, which was also filtered through KMnO₄ to remove ethylene by oxidation, growth, flowering, and fruit production increased. These observations demonstrate that ethylene air pollution is a continual source of stress for plant growth and development in an urban environment.     

Economic Impact of Mass Production of Alternative Low Emission Automotive Power Systems

The study considers a range of possible effects on the transportation industry, satellite industries, the labor market, and the economy which may be anticipated in the event mass production of unconventional low emission automotive propulsion systems should occur, whether as a consequence of federal intervention, or not. A postulated 1 976 Otto Cycle Internal Combustion Engine equipped with a dual catalyst manifold reactor and other “conventional” emission control devices was compared in detail with a Regenerative Free Turbine Engine and a Rankine Cycle Engine, as specified by the contracting agency. Manufacturing costs, operating and ownership costs, consumer demand, inter-industry effects, employment, resource requirements, and international trade implications were analyzed in depth under a number of plausible sets of policy constraints and parametric variations. Principal conclusions are that conversion over a 10 year period is feasible, that manufacturing cost differentials are less critical than fuel consumption and cost differentials, that industry/employment impacts are minor, and that resource/trade effects are dominated by petroleum imports. Implications for federal policy are discussed.     

Automotive Exhaust Emission Levels by Geographic Area and Vehicle Make A Nationwide Survey

Gross average automotive exhaust emissions data collected by the Atlantic Richfield Clean Air Caravan during the summer of 1970 showed only slight geographical variations when the specific makes were ignored. When considering specific makes, significant differences were found on an average emissions basis. Vehicle population—emission distributions showed wide variations in the 50% population levels and in the percent of vehicles with emissions greater than specified values. Hydrocarbon (HC) and carbon monoxide (CO) data are given on a gross basis for the 1970, 1968-69, 1966-67, and pre-1966 model year group vehicles. Average HC and CO emissions and vehicle population-Idle emissions distribution curves are included for specific make vehicles in selected areas.     

Surface Air Pollutant Concentration Frequency Distributions: Implications for Urban Modeling

With the development of ambient air quality standards (AAQS), the need arises to describe the characteristics of regional surface air-pollutant concentration frequency distributions. In the evaluation of land use plans, numerous agencies will be concerned with evaluating the effectiveness of emission zoning and/or control actions. On a regional basis, one means of performing this assessment lies in determining the changes in the pollutant frequency distributions resulting from control actions.

This study presents new data concerning the surface air-pollutant concentration frequency distributions observed for area sources and continuous point sources, and compares these distributions with those of the pertinent meteorological variables describing the transport and diffusion of the pollutant. The observed surface air pollutant frequency distributions are compared to those corresponding to simple modeling concepts from either an urban area source or a continuous point source. For an urban source and a relatively inert pollutant like CO, we found that the observed frequency distribution for CO surface air concentration parallels the approximately log-normal frequency distribution of the reciprocal of the wind speed. We show that the constant relating these two well-correlated frequency distributions can be determined either experimentally or with a numerical simulation model of air pollution. The usefulness of numerical models in air pollution is discussed.     

Variance Design and Air Pollution Control

Confronted with shortages of low sulfur content residual fuel oil and, consequently, faced with the threat of social and economic upheaval, several air pollution control authorities in the Northeastern states were forced to relax hard-won air quality standards during the winter of 1972. The authorities did so by granting variances to their sulfur content standards for residual fuel oil. This paper examines the institutional characteristics of these variance policies from an economic incentive standpoint. After setting up desirable structural criteria for institutional design of such crisis policies, the authors examine the experience of the winter of 1972 and arrive at policy guidelines which recommend themselves for consideration in future periods of fuel oil shortages.