Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation

Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models.     

Poisoned plusiines: toxicity of milkweed latex and cardenolides to some generalist caterpillars

Summary. Larvae of Trichoplusia ni Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) that ingested latex from Asclepias curassavica L. (Asclepiadaceae) often regurgitated and convulsed with spasms before becoming immobile and unresponsive. Some larvae required over a day to recover sufficiently to feed. Latices from four other plant species in three families were all deterrent, but none caused detectable poisoning. The toxicity of A. curassavica latex was evidently due to cardenolides because pure cardenolides had similar effects when ingested by T. ni. Other species of noctuid caterpillars (Rachiplusia ou Guenée, Anagrapha falcifera Kirby, and Autographa precationis Guenée) sometimes also suffered spasms and temporary immobility when fed A. curassavica latex. A more distantly related noctuid, Spodoptera ornithogalli, was deterred by the latex, but showed no overt physiological responses at the dosage tested. T. ni larvae failed to develop on intact leaves of A. curassavica, on leaves with latex canals deactivated by midrib severance, and on excised leaves. Similarly, larvae reared on excised A. syriaca L. leaves to the final instar died when transferred to A. curassavica leaves with either intact or severed midribs. The final instar larvae sometimes suffered from spasms and immobility even when confined on leaves with depressurized canal systems. Evidently, cardenolides stored outside the latex system suffice to poison larvae. We conclude that cardenolides in A. curassavica have potent physiological effects on some generalist caterpillars and that the presence of these compounds both inside and outside laticifers effectively protects the plant. Received 30 June 1999; accepted 18 October 1999     

应用D412螯合树脂治理含镍电镀废水的研究

本文研究了Ｄ４１２螯合树脂对Ｎｉ（Ⅱ）离子静态和动态的吸收性能,并且研究了使用Ｄ４１２树脂除去和回收电镀废水中镍的最佳条件。     

Sorption of polar and nonpolar aromatic compounds to four surface soils of eastern China

Improved predictions on the fate of organic pollutants in surface environments require a better understanding of the underlying sorption mechanisms that control their uptake by soils. In this study, we monitored sorption of nine aromatic compounds with varying physicochemical properties (hydrophobicity, electron-donor/acceptor ability and polarity), including two polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, two chlorobenzenes, two nitroaromatic compounds, dichlobenil, carbaryl and 2,4-dichlorophenol in aqueous suspension of four surface soils of eastern China. The tested soils were characterized with respect to organic carbon (OC) content, black carbon content, mineralogy, morphology and size fraction to assess the role of the diverse soil characteristics in sorption. The results of this study show that not only the solute hydrophobicity and the OC content of soil are important to the retention of organic pollutants, but also the solute molecular structure and the soil nature.     

建立良好有序的环保产业发展机制

论述了环保产业范围的不确定性、分布性、广泛性、依赖性、公益性，及产业市场的风险性，提出了发展我国环保产业的基本思路和原则。     

Global sensitivity analysis of a process-based model for ammonia emissions from manure storage and treatment structures

The development of process-based models to estimate ammonia emissions from animal feeding operations (AFOSs) is sought to replace costly and time-consuming direct measurements. Critical to process-based model development is conducting sensitivity analysis to determine the input parameters and their interactions that contribute most to the variance of the model output. Global and relative sensitivity analyses were applied to a process-based model for predicting ammonia emissions from the surface of anaerobic lagoons for treating and storing manure. The objectives were to compare global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to relative (local) sensitivity analysis (RSA) on a process-based model for ammonia emissions. Based on the first-order coefficient, both GSA and RSA showed the model input parameters in order of importance in process model for ammonia emissions from lagoon surfaces were: (i) pH, (ii) lagoon liquid temperature, (iii) wind speed above the lagoon surface, and (iv) the concentration of ammoniacal nitrogen in the lagoon. The GSA revealed that interactions between model parameters accounted for over two-thirds of the model variance, a result that cannot be achieved using traditional RSA. Also, the GSA showed that parameter interactions involving liquid pH had more impact on the model output variance than the single parameters: (i) temperature, (ii) wind speed, or (iii) total ammoniacal nitrogen. This study demonstrates that GSA provides a more complete analysis of model input parameters and their interactions on the model output compared to RSA. A comprehensive tutorial regarding the application of GSA to a process model is presented.     

隔震:保证建筑物地震安全的最佳选择

<正>几十年地震预报实践说明,地震预报尚未成熟,远未达到实用化,目前仍属于摸索探索阶段。有些地震虽然说可能作预测预报,但即使预报了,对一个大城市而言也不会轻易疏散、停工停产,而且地震发生了城市的物质文明建设照样会遭到严重破坏。换个方式去思维去实践,即把城乡建筑的抗震性能提高了,尤其是住宅建筑和重     

最棘手的工业废弃物

<正>工业废弃物危害人间2010年10月4日下午,匈牙利西部维斯普雷姆州一家铝厂的有毒废水池发生决堤事故。大约70万立方米有毒废水流入附近的3个村镇,造成7人死亡,120人受伤。同时,给附近村镇和毛尔曹尔河的生态环境带来了致命的打击,并威胁到多瑙河干流的水质安全。这种废水是提炼铝矿的产物,是有待处理的工业废弃物,即我们常说的工业垃圾。由于有毒而不能随便排放,只能以废水池留存待处理。日积月累,废水池中的有     

全球六次重大火山爆发

<正>默拉皮火山地点:印度尼西亚爪哇岛中部最近一次大规模喷发:2007年,喷发的火山灰甚至到达了将近4000米的高度。列入关注的理由:大约每千年大规模爆发一次,最近一次大爆发大约发生在公元1006年——喷发的火山灰覆盖了整个中爪哇地区,很可能导致了统治3个世纪的信仰印度教的马塔拉姆王国的覆灭。