The need for a systems theory approach to road safety

In other hazardous complex socio-technical systems in society, e.g. nuclear power and aviation, systems-theoretical assumptions are considered a promising way to better understand and manage safety. In this paper, two fundamental approaches to road safety were assessed in the light of a systems theory approach. One approach, is based on a premise where individual road-users are solely responsible when crashes occur. In that case countermeasures are aimed at altering the behavior of the road-user in order to adapt him/her to the road transport system. The other approach, the so-called zero-tolerance position, or Vision Zero approach, to road safety is built around two axioms; the system must be adapted to the psychological and physical conditions and limitations of the human being and the responsibility for road safety must be shared between the road-users and the designers and professional operators of the system. It was found that the most important determinants of systems theory are basically not present in the road-user approach. However, even if the Vision Zero approach clearly takes step towards systems theory, it does leave room for articulating even more features of systems theory.     

SESAR safety decision-making: Lessons from environmental,nuclear and defense modeling

SESAR, the ‘Single European Sky Air traffic Research’ program, envisages radical changes for European Air Traffic Management (ATM). It integrates and implements new technologies and information processing. This paper examines the safety decision-making in the implementation of SESAR projects. SESAR poses new safety problems because it adopts new paradigms for ATM safety – what lessons are there from environmental, nuclear and defense modeling? These disciplines have also had to confront the limitations of modeling the rates of rare and damaging – even catastrophic – events. A major conceptual change in SESAR is that of automated separation assurance systems. Some existing responsibilities transfer from the controller – either to the pilot or to computer systems – in a progressively phased approach. The major problem for SESAR safety validation is that mixed equipage/operations within a common airspace potentially generate new and different safety issues regarding the validation of safety predictions. A potential way forward uses high-fidelity Human In The Loop Simulations (HITLS) to generate confidence in the resilience of the ATM system. The focus changes from proving safety, i.e. through traditional kinds of validation processes, to extensive resilience testing using these simulations. The aim would be to test how resilient the system is to seeded errors, penetration testing, and crash/stress testing. This would be a high cost process because of the large investments required and the need for long sequences of testing. However, these demanding processes can provide ‘justified belief’ to the decision-maker that the changed ATM system is acceptably safe.     

Common operations failure modes in the process industries

The Abnormal Situation Management^® (ASM^®) Consortium (This research study was sponsored by the Abnormal Situation Management (ASM) Consortium. ASM^® and Abnormal Situation Management^® are registered trademarks of Honeywell International, Inc.) funded a study to investigate common failure modes and root causes associated with operations practices. The study team analyzed 20 public and 12 private incident reports using the TapRoot^® methodology to identify root causes. These root causes were mapped to operations practice failures. This paper describes the top ten operations failure modes identified in the analysis. Specific recommendations include how to analyze plant incident reports to better understand the sources of systemic failures and improve plant operating practices.     

Using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for blast wave predictions

Explosions will, in most cases, generate blast waves. While simple models (e.g., Multi Energy Method) are useful for simple explosion geometries, most practical explosions are far from trivial and require detailed analyses. For a reliable estimate of the blast from a gas explosion it is necessary to know the explosion strength. The source explosion may not be symmetric; the pressure waves will be reflected or deflected when hitting objects, or even worse, the blast waves may propagate inside buildings or tunnels with a very low rate of decay. The use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) explosion models for near and far field blast wave predictions has many advantages. These include more precise estimates of the energy and resulting pressure of the blast wave, as well as the ability to evaluate non-symmetrical effects caused by realistic geometries, gas cloud variations and ignition locations. This is essential when evaluating the likelihood of a given leak source as cause of an explosion or equally when evaluating the potential risk associated with a given leak source for a consequence analysis.In addition, unlike simple methods, CFD explosion models can also evaluate detailed dynamic effects in the near and far field, which include time dependent pressure loads as well as reflection and focusing of the blast waves. This is particularly valuable when assessing actual near-field blast damage during an explosion investigation or potential near-field damage during a risk analysis for a facility. One main challenge in applying CFD, however, is that these models require more information about the actual facility, including geometry details and process information. Collecting the necessary geometry and process data may be quite time consuming. This paper will show some blast prediction validation examples for the CFD model FLACS. It will also provide examples of how directional effects or interaction with objects can significantly influence the dynamics of the blast wave. Finally, the challenge of obtaining useful predictions with insufficient details regarding the geometry will also be addressed.     

The mediating role of job characteristics in job redesign interventions: A serendipitous quasi‐experiment

The aim of this paper is to examine the mediating role played by five key job characteristics in the relationship between employee participation in a job redesign intervention and employee well‐being. In studies of job redesign interventions, it has been assumed that any effects of employee participation in job redesign on well‐being are a result of changes in job characteristics rather than participation in change per se. It is therefore important to statistically test for mediation in job redesign intervention studies to help establish that the change in job characteristics is the mechanism through which job redesign interventions work. However, this has rarely been tested directly, either because data to allow tests of mediation have not been collected (e.g. assessments of job characteristics) or because data have been collected but mediation has not been tested using accepted procedures. This makes it unclear whether changes in job characteristics explain the effects. Results from multilevel analyses of a longitudinal 9‐month long serendipitous quasi‐experimental participative job redesign intervention showed that changes in job control, participation, skill utilization and feedback, but not task obstacles, were sufficient to account for the relationship between the intervention and employee well‐being. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integral assessment of estrogenic potentials in sediment-associated samples

Background, aim, and scope  The enzyme-linked receptor assay (ELRA) detects estrogenic and anti-estrogenic effects at the molecular level of receptor binding and is a useful tool for the integrative assessment of ecotoxicological potentials caused by hormonally active agents (HAA) and endocrine disrupting compounds (EDC). The main advantage of the ELRA is its high sample throughput and its robustness against cytotoxicity and microbial contamination. After a methodological adaptation to salinity of the ELRA, according to the first part of this study, which increased its salinity tolerance and sensitivity for 17-β-estradiol, the optimised ELRA was used to investigate 13 native sediments characterised by different levels of salinity and chemical contamination. The applicability of the ELRA for routine analysis in environmental assessment was evaluated. Salinity is often a critical factor for bioassays in ecotoxicological sediment assessment. Therefore, salinity of the samples was additionally adjusted to different levels to characterise its influence on elution and binding processes of receptor-binding substances. Materials and methods  The ELRA was carried out with the human estrogen receptor α (ER) in a 96-well microplate format using the experimental setup known from the competitive immunoassay based on ligand–protein interaction. It is an important improvement that a physiologically relevant receptor was used as a linking protein instead of an antibody. The microplates were coated with a 17-β-estradiol-BSA conjugate, and dilution series of estradiol and of native sediment samples were added and incubated with the ER. After a washing step, a biotinylated mouse anti-ER antibody was added to each well. Receptor binding to estradiol, agonistic and antagonistic receptor binding, were determined by a streptavidin-POD-biotin complex with subsequent measurement of the peroxidase activity at the wavelength of 450 nm using a commercial ELISA multiplate reader. The sediment elutriates and pore water samples of sediments were tested in a dilution series to evaluate at which dilution step the receptor-binding potential ends. In the elution process (see Section 2.1 to 2.2), a method was developed to adjust the salinity to the levels of the reference testings, which offers an appropriate option to adjust the salinity in both directions. Statistical evaluation was made with a combination of the Mann–Whitney U test and the pT-method. Results  This part of the study characterised the environmental factor ‘salinity’ for prospective applications of the ELRA. Using reference substances such as 17-β-estradiol, the ELRA showed sigmoid concentration-effect relations over a broad range from 0.05 μg/l to 100 μg/l under physiological conditions. After methodological optimisation, both sensitivity and tolerance of the assay against salinity could be significantly raised, and the ELRA became applicable under salinity conditions up to concentrations of 20.5‰. The mean relative inter-test error (n = 3) was around 11% with reference substances and below 5% for single sediments elutriates in three replicates each. For sediment testings, the pore water and different salinity-adjusted elutriates of 13 sediments were used. A clear differentiation of the receptor-binding potential could be reached by application of the pT-method. Thereby, pT-values from one to six could be assigned to the sediments, and the deviation caused by the different salinity conditions was one pT-value. The mean standard deviation in the salinity adaptation procedure of the elutriates was below 5%. Discussion  Although the ELRA has already been used for assessments of wastewater, sludge and soil, its applicability for samples to different salinity levels has not been investigated so far. Even if the ELRA is not as sensitive as the E-screen or the YES-assay, with regard to reference substances like 17-β-estradiol, it is a very useful tool for pre-screening, because it is able to integrate both estrogenic as well as anti-estrogenic receptor-binding effects. According to the results of sediment testing, and given the integrative power to detect different directions of effects, the ELRA shows sufficient sensitivity and salinity tolerance to discriminate receptor-binding potentials in environmental samples. Conclusions  The optimised ELRA assay is a fast, cost-effective, reliable and highly reproducible tool that can be used for high-throughput screening in a microplate format in detecting both estrogenic and anti-estrogenic effects. Additionally, the ELRA is robust against microbial contaminations, and is not susceptible towards cytotoxic interferences like the common cell-culture methods. The general applicability and sufficient sensitivity of the ELRA was shown in freshwater environments. Marine and brackish samples can be measured up to salinity levels of 20.5‰. Recommendations and perspectives  In view of the proven sensitivity, functionality and the fastness of the ELRA, it is recommendable to standardise the test method. At the moment, no adequate in vitro test procedure exists which is standardised to DIN or ISO levels. The E-screen and the yeast estrogen/androgen screens (YES/YAS) sometimes underlie strong cytotoxic effects, as reported in the first part of this study. Further development of an ELRA assay using human androgen receptors appears to be very promising to gain information about androgenic and anti-androgenic effects, too. This would offer a possibility to use the ELRA as a fast and reliable pre-screening tool for the detection of endocrine potentials, thus minimising time and cost-expensive animal experiments.     

Degassing of H/He, CFCs and SF6 by denitrification: Measurements and two-phase transport simulations

The production of N₂ gas by denitrification may lead to the appearance of a gas phase below the water table prohibiting the conservative transport of tracer gases required for groundwater dating. We used a two-phase flow and transport model (STOMP) to study the reliability of ³H/³He, CFCs and SF₆ as groundwater age tracers under agricultural land where denitrification causes degassing. We were able to reproduce the amount of degassing (R² = 69%), as well as the ³H (R² = 79%) and ³He (R² = 76%) concentrations observed in a ³H/³He data set using simple 2D models. We found that the TDG correction of the ³H/³He age overestimated the control ³He/³He age by 2.1 years, due to the accumulation of ³He in the gas phase. The total uncertainty of degassed ³H/³He ages of 6 years (± 2 σ) is due to the correction of degassed ³He using the TDG method, but also due to the travel time in the unsaturated zone and the diffusion of bomb peak ³He. CFCs appear to be subject to significant degradation in anoxic groundwater and SF₆ is highly susceptible to degassing. We conclude that ³H/³He is the most reliable method to date degassed groundwater and that two-phase flow models such as STOMP are useful tools to assist in the interpretation of degassed groundwater age tracer data.     

Influence of temporally variable groundwater flow conditions on point measurements and contaminant mass flux estimations

Monitoring of contaminant concentrations, e.g., for the estimation of mass discharge or contaminant degradation rates, often is based on point measurements at observation wells. In addition to the problem, that point measurements may not be spatially representative, a further complication may arise due to the temporal dynamics of groundwater flow, which may cause a concentration measurement to be not temporally representative. This paper presents results from a numerical modeling study focusing on temporal variations of the groundwater flow direction. “Measurements” are obtained from point information representing observation wells installed along control planes using different well frequencies and configurations. Results of the scenario simulations show that temporally variable flow conditions can lead to significant temporal fluctuations of the concentration and thus are a substantial source of uncertainty for point measurements. Temporal variation of point concentration measurements may be as high as the average concentration determined, especially near the plume fringe, even when assuming a homogeneous distribution of the hydraulic conductivity. If a heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity field is present, the concentration variability due to a fluctuating groundwater flow direction varies significantly within the control plane and between the different realizations. Determination of contaminant mass fluxes is also influenced by the temporal variability of the concentration measurement, especially for large spacings of the observation wells. Passive dosimeter sampling is found to be appropriate for evaluating the stationarity of contaminant plumes as well as for estimating average concentrations over time when the plume has fully developed. Representative sampling has to be performed over several periods of groundwater flow fluctuation. For the determination of mass fluxes at heterogeneous sites, however, local fluxes, which may vary considerably along a control plane, have to be accounted for. Here, dosimeter sampling in combination with time integrated local water flux measurements can improve mass flux estimates under dynamic flow conditions.     

An assessment of indoor air quality in recent Mexican immigrant housing in Commerce City, Colorado

An indoor air quality assessment was conducted on 100 homes of recent Mexican immigrants in Commerce City, Colorado, an urban industrial community north of Denver. Head of households were administered a family health survey, filled out an activity diary, and participated in a home inspection. Carbon monoxide (CO) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) were measured for 24 h inside the main living area and outside of the homes. Harvard Impactors were used to collect 24-h samples of PM_2.5 at the same locations for gravimetric analysis. Dust samples were collected by vacuuming carpeting and flooring at four locations within the home and analyzed by ELISA for seven allergens. Mean indoor and outdoor PM_2.5 levels were 27.2 and 8.5 μg m⁻³, respectively. Indoor PM_2.5 and CO₂ were elevated in homes for which the number of hours with door/window open was zero compared to homes in which the number of hours was high (>15 h). Indoor PM_2.5 levels did not correlate with outdoor levels and tended to increase with number of inhabitants, and results indicate that the source of indoor particles were occupants and their activities, excluding smoking and cooking. Mean indoor CO₂ and CO levels were 1170 and 2.4 ppm, respectively. Carbon monoxide was higher than the 24-h National Ambient Air Quality Standard in 3 of the homes. The predominant allergens were cat (Fel d 1) and mouse (Mus m 1) allergens, found in 20 and 34 homes, respectively.