我国石油需求预测及经济危机下的应对建议

石油资源的特殊性使得石油市场一直变幻莫测,尤其是当前经济危机影响下,我国石油市场的走向及应对策略成为了各界关注的焦点。石油需求的走向影响着我国石油政策的制定,因此石油需求的预测是很有意义的。本文应用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,采用了1985至2008年这24年的石油需求数据,对我国未来五年的石油需求进行了预测,结果显示需求量将持续上升,而且增幅较为稳定。在此需求预测的基础上,结合我国目前石油市场的现状分析,认为存在的主要问题在于国内的石油供给不能满足日益增长的需求,导致石油消费对外依存度过高,能源安全存在隐患;另外,工业石油消耗强度过大也导致消费结构不合理,再加上我国石油进口多集中于中东等地区,渠道单一且不确定因素较多。结合当前经济危机条件的冲击影响,从保证国内石油供给、平衡能源消费结构和石油进口区域多元化这三方面提出了相关建议,认为应该加大国内外找油的步伐,多区域进口石油,并加大新能源和低能耗能源的研发,全面保障我国石油市场健康运行。     

拉延成形中拉延筋的摩擦分析

此文建立了一种用拉延筋单元模拟试验器测试拉延筋摩擦系数的方法,同时对成形中的摩擦润滑进行了试验研究和分析。     

海平面上升的影响及损失预测

气候变化引起的海平面上升对沿海国家和地区构及极大的威胁，造成了不同程度的破坏和损失，通过对海平面上升的可能影响进行了分析，提出了影响及损失的几种估算和评价方法。     

Identification of 1-hydroxypyrene in urine of dogs after pyrene injection and its excretion

With high performance liquid chromatograph and fluorospectrometry, 1-hydroxypyrene is identified as a metabolite of pyrene in the urine of dogs after intramuscular injection of pyrene. When three successive doses of 1,2 and 5 μmol/kg wt. pyrene administered, urinary excretion of 1-hydroxypyrene reaches the peak level between 24th and 48th hours. Excreted 1-hydroxypyrene consists of only about 0.05% of injected pyrene.     

From economic prosperity to ecological sustainability──A theoretical and practical concern of sustainable development in China

Ｆｒｏｍｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃｐｒｏｓｐｅｒｉｔｙｔｏｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌｓｕｓｔａｉｎａｂｉｌｉｔｙ──ＡｔｈｅｏｒｅｔｉｃａｌａｎｄｐｒａｃｔｉｃａｌｃｏｎｃｅｒｎｏｆｓｕｓｔａｉｎａｂｌｅｄｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔｉｎＣｈｉｎａＷａｎｇＲｕｓｏｎｇ，Ｈｕ...     

Effects of simulated acid rain on saplings of Pinus massoniana and Cunninghamia lanceolata

The effects of simulated acid rain with pH values of 6.63 (control, 4.5, 3.0, and 2.0 on saplings of Pinus massoniana and Cunninghamia lanceolate, were studied. The results showed that the pH of C.lanceolate, leaf sap and soil decreased as the acidity of rainfall increased. The acid rain with very low pH had significant effects on the photosynthetic rates per plant, but not on that of the per unit weight of dry leaves. The respiration rates of the two species were stimulated. Root and leaf boimass, but not stem biomass, were also reduced tremendously during a seven months period.     

Roleofscienceandtechnologyinenvironmentally sound urbanization in China

１　ＢｒｉｅｆｉｎｇｕｒｂａｎｉｚａｔｉｏｎｐｒｏｃｅｓｓｉｎＣｈｉｎａ１．１　ＴｈｅｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｃｅｏｆｕｒｂａｎｉｚａｔｉｏｎｔｏＣｈｉｎａ○ｓｍｏｄｅｒｎｉｚａｔｉｏｎｄｒｉｖｅＴｈｅｆｉｒｓｔａｎｄｆｏｒｅｍｏｓｔｂｅｎｅｆｉｔｏｆｕｒｂａｎｉｚａｔｉｏｎｉｎＣｈｉｎａｓｈｏｕｌｄｂｅａｔｔｒｉｂｕｔｅｄｔｏｔｈｅｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃｇｒｏｗｔｈ，ｗｈｉｃｈｉｓｔｈｅｐｒｉｍａｒｙｃｏｎｃｅｒｎｏｆｎｏｔｏｎｌｙｔｈｅｇｏｖｅｒｎｍｅｎｔ，ｂｕｔｔｈｅｏｒｄｉｎａｒｙｐｅｏｐｌｅａｓｗｅ…     

Quantitation of metallothionein and cadmium in metallothionein in mink livers by anion-exchange HPLC-GFAAS method

Metallothionein (MT) has a great capacity of binding heavy metals showing an interesting connection with metal toxicology, as a biochemical marker for environmental metal pollution. Anino-exchange high per formance liquid chromatography (HPLC) was used to isolate and quantitate MT in livers of minks which were contaminated with heavy metals. MT isoforms (MT-I and MT-II) were eluted at approximately 11.3 and 14.3 min respectively from a DEAE-5 PW anion-exchange column with a Tris-HCl buffer (0.01 -0.25 mol/L, pH 8.6) and detected by UV absorbance at 254 nm. The cadmium concentrations in mink liver MT elutkms were determined by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GFAAS) . Obvious increase in liver MT-I concentration rather than liver MT-II was found when the minks were contaminated by feeding contaminated fish captured from the heavy metal-polluted river. The cadmium concentration in mink liver MT-I also increased to some extent as the contaminated level increased.     

Comparison of some atmospheric chemical modeling schemes

ＣｏｍｐａｒｉｓｏｎｏｆｓｏｍｅａｔｍｏｓｐｈｅｒｉｃｃｈｅｍｉｃａｌｍｏｄｅｌｉｎｇｓｃｈｅｍｅｓＳｈｅｎＪｉ，ＺｈａｏＱｉａｎｘｕｅＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＣｅｎｔｅｒｆｏｒＥｃｏＥｎｖｉｒｏｍｅｎｔａｌＳｃｉｅｎｃｅｓ，ＣｈｉｎｅｓｅＡｃａｄｅｍｙ...     

Numerical experiments for the impacts of temperature and precipitation variation on the growth and development of winter wheat

The growth process of winter wheat was simulated by CERES-wheat model assuming the daily temperature increase -1, 0,1, 2℃ and daily precipitation increase -20, -10, -5, 0, 5, 10, and 20 percent, respectively. The case study site is Zhenjiang City of Jiangsu Province in the east China. Simulation results show that the impacts of temperature variation on winter wheat is stronger than that of precipitation. Climate warming would speed development rate and shorten phonological period. In general, the adverse effect of climate change on grain yield is greater than that of its beneficial effect, especially when the climate becoming cooler and dryer. The increase of temperature and decrease of precipitation would reduce the plant extractablc soil water content.