Risk measures constituting a risk metrics which enables improved decision making: Value-at-Risk

In this work, a novel approach is proposed for expressing the risks of process plants consisting of a large number of scenarios, in the form of a risk metrics of leading indicators to prevent potential high profile industry accidents. The methodology includes: 1) risk estimation of a portfolio by CPQRA (or QRA), 2) monetization of the tangible risks with the inclusion of the lost time of production, 3) estimation of the maximum portfolio loss using Value-at-Risk approach, 4) inclusion of intangible risks using FN-curve and, 5) generation of F$-curve of tangible risks. The proposed methodology can particularly help in understanding the stakes at risk by performing the overall cost-benefit analysis, for identifying the most risky scenarios and identifying critical equipments to enable better risk-informed decision making in order to adopt appropriate risk mitigation measures. This work establishes the groundwork for developing measures for understanding and comparing the large number of risk values derived from QRA studies for large portfolios. It will aid in less subjective decision making as it enables the decision maker to choose the most preferred portfolio option among alternatives. Decisions made with the accurate understanding of the consequences of risks can significantly reduce potential work-related fatalities, property losses and save millions of dollars.     

Simulations of the flow in the Mahakam river–lake–delta system,Indonesia

Large rivers often present a river–lake–delta system, with a wide range of temporal and spatial scales of the flow due to the combined effects of human activities and various natural factors, e.g., river discharge, tides, climatic variability, droughts, floods. Numerical models that allow for simulating the flow in these river–lake–delta systems are essential to study them and predict their evolution under the impact of various forcings. This is because they provide information that cannot be easily measured with sufficient temporal and spatial detail. In this study, we combine one-dimensional sectional-averaged (1D) and two-dimensional depth-averaged (2D) models, in the framework of the finite element model SLIM, to simulate the flow in the Mahakam river–lake–delta system (Indonesia). The 1D model representing the Mahakam River and four tributaries is coupled to the 2D unstructured mesh model implemented on the Mahakam Delta, the adjacent Makassar Strait, and three lakes in the central part of the river catchment. Using observations of water elevation at five stations, the bottom friction for river and tributaries, lakes, delta, and adjacent coastal zone is calibrated. Next, the model is validated using another period of observations of water elevation, flow velocity, and water discharge at various stations. Several criteria are implemented to assess the quality of the simulations, and a good agreement between simulations and observations is achieved in both calibration and validation stages. Different aspects of the flow, i.e., the division of water at two bifurcations in the delta, the effects of the lakes on the flow in the lower part of the system, the area of tidal propagation, are also quantified and discussed.     

Tears,fears and cheers: responses to the post‐disaster school relocation policy in China

This paper reports on the results of a qualitative study on the responses of Chinese school children in one junior middle school and their parents to China's post‐disaster school relocation policy. The sample comprised 22 pairs of parent–child dyads and two pupils whose parents could not be contacted. The study results were reported using Chambers and Wedel's (2009) conceptual framework, which delineates the fundamental elements of a policy. Content analysis was used to generate themes related to policy elements, such as goals, benefits and services. Both repetitive themes and idiosyncratic perspectives were reported so as to present a diversity of views. Despite adjustment difficulties and administrative problems reported by the study participants, the policy attention given to the rapid restoration of formal schooling for children was generally appreciated. The move back to the new school was greeted with cheer.     

Giant pandas attend to androgen-related variation in male bleats

Although androgen-dependant traits are predicted to signal overall male quality, no study has examined the response of a nonhuman animal to variation in a known acoustic cue to male androgen levels (steroid hormones that are key drivers of male sexual behaviour). Here, we use a single-speaker approach to present male and female giant pandas with re-synthesised male bleats representing callers with high and low androgen levels. Our results revealed that male and female giant pandas had significantly greater-looking responses, spent more time pacing, and were faster to respond to playbacks of bleats simulating high androgen males. When we analysed the sexes separately, a slightly different response pattern was revealed: whereas males and females still had significantly greater-looking responses and were faster to respond to bleats simulating high androgen males, only male giant pandas tended to spend more time pacing. These findings suggest that vocal cues to male androgen levels are functionally relevant to male and female giant pandas during the breeding season, and constitute the first demonstration that a nonhuman animal could be using a vocal signal to assess male hormonal state. We go on to discuss the ecological relevance of signalling androgen levels in this species’ sexual communication and the possible application of our results to conservation breeding.     

Key parametric analysis on designing an effective forced mitigation system for LNG spill emergency

Concerns over public safety and security of a potential liquefied natural gas (LNG) spill have promoted the need for continued improvement of safety measures for LNG facilities. The mitigation techniques have been recognized as one of the areas that require further investigation to determine the public safety impact of an LNG spill. Forced mitigation of LNG vapors using a water curtain system has been proven to be effective in reducing the vapor concentration by enhancing the dispersion. Currently, no engineering criteria for designing an effective water curtain system are available, mainly due to a lack of understanding of the complex droplet–vapor interaction. This work applies computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling to evaluate various key design parameters involved in the LNG forced mitigation using an upwards-oriented full-cone water spray. An LNG forced dispersion model based on a Eulerian–Lagrangian approach was applied to solve the physical interactions of the droplet–vapor system by taking into account the various effects of the droplets (discrete phase) on the air–vapor mixture (continuous phase). The effects of different droplet sizes, droplet temperatures, air entrainment rates, and installation configurations of water spray applications on LNG vapor behavior are investigated. Finally, the potential of applying CFD modeling in providing guidance for setting up the design criteria for an effective forced mitigation system as an integrated safety element for LNG facilities is discussed.     

Effects of Stock Use and Backpackers on Water Quality in Wilderness in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, USA

During 2010–2011, a study was conducted in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI) to evaluate the influence of pack animals (stock) and backpackers on water quality in wilderness lakes and streams. The study had three main components: (1) a synoptic survey of water quality in wilderness areas of the parks, (2) paired water quality sampling above and below several areas with differing types and amounts of visitor use, and (3) intensive monitoring at six sites to document temporal variations in water quality. Data from the synoptic water quality survey indicated that wilderness lakes and streams are dilute and have low nutrient and Escherichia coli concentrations. The synoptic survey sites were categorized as minimal use, backpacker-use, or mixed use (stock and backpackers), depending on the most prevalent type of use upstream from the sampling locations. Sites with mixed use tended to have higher concentrations of most constituents (including E. coli) than those categorized as minimal-use (P ≤ 0.05); concentrations at backpacker-use sites were intermediate. Data from paired-site sampling indicated that E. coli, total coliform, and particulate phosphorus concentrations were greater in streams downstream from mixed-use areas than upstream from those areas (P ≤ 0.05). Paired-site data also indicated few statistically significant differences in nutrient, E. coli, or total coliform concentrations in streams upstream and downstream from backpacker-use areas. The intensive-monitoring data indicated that nutrient and E. coli concentrations normally were low, except during storms, when notable increases in concentrations of E. coli, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, and turbidity occurred. In summary, results from this study indicate that water quality in SEKI wilderness generally is good, except during storms; and visitor use appears to have a small, but statistically significant influence on stream water quality.     

Biomarker responses in wild three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) as a useful tool for freshwater biomonitoring: a multiparametric approach

The biochemical response of wild sticklebacks collected in Autumn 2005 at seven stations in the North of France was studied using a set of complementary biomarkers. Here, data on biotransformation of xenobiotics, oxidative stress exposure and damages, neurotoxicity and endocrine disruption are provided. All the sites are characterized by a specific response pattern that allows distinguishing sampling locations. Moreover, these responses are in accordance with data on existing environmental pressures and the chemical analysis of metals performed in surface water. The assessment of individual responses is completed by fish population disturbance monitoring. Based on these measurements, the investigated sites are characterized by different levels of disturbance. This study argues for a multi-parametric approach of aquatic ecosystem contamination based on association between chemical, biochemical and ecological endpoints and provides a testimony of the usefulness of stickleback for this purpose.     

The role of ad hoc networks in supporting climate change adaptation: a case study from the Southeastern United States

To examine the factors that support adaptation within a regional and sectoral context, this article explores five climate-sensitive sectors in North and South Carolina (Forestry, Government Administration, Tourism, Water Management, and Wildlife Management) and the role of partnerships, collaborations, and networks in facilitating climate adaptation and related activities. Drawing from 117 online questionnaires and interviews with sector leaders across the Carolinas, the article highlights several key functions of networks in regard to supporting adaptation—intra-sector information sharing; monitoring, data collection, and research; and education and outreach. Furthermore, the analysis examines how climate networks in the region have facilitated the development of bonding, bridging, and linking social capital while also noting factors that have constrained the growth and success of both intra- and cross-sector collaboration. Although no formal, or discrete, state or regional cross-sector climate change network exists in the Carolinas, climate adaptations and capacity-building efforts have been supported by ad hoc and decentralized networks, emerging collegial partnerships within and across sectors, and collaborative efforts to pool expertise and resources. The role of different forms of social capital within these networks is discussed in the context of a contentious political environment where support for activities designed to address climate change is limited. These findings enhance our understanding of the social factors and relational processes that shape and influence capacity to adapt to climate change.     

They’ll be dammed: the sustainability implications of the Sarawak Corridor of Renewable Energy (SCORE) in Malaysia

This article examines the Sarawak Corridor of Renewable Energy in Malaysia, or SCORE, a US $105 billion infrastructure development plan in Sarawak on the island of Borneo, from a sustainability standpoint. SCORE aims to build 20,000 megawatts of hydroelectric dams along a 320 km corridor comprising more than 70,000 km² by 2030. The article begins by explaining social science methods utilized for its research interviews and site visits. It then argues that sustainability consists of seven principles articulated in international law: prudence, equity, responsibility, precaution, justice, governance, and compatibility. Next, the paper introduces readers to SCORE before assessing it according to these seven sustainability criteria. The paper finds that SCORE erodes environmental prudence by emitting millions of tons of carbon dioxide and feeding industries that will pollute the land and water. It worsens intergenerational equity by exacerbating poverty and consolidating wealth for corporations and politicians. It degrades responsibility by intensifying tropical deforestation and flaunts precaution by downplaying and ignoring risks to water quality and availability. It is unjust, imposing dams on communities and forcibly relocating thousands of indigenous people, mitigates good governance by condoning bribes and kickbacks along with the violent suppression of dissent, and is incompatible with Malaysia’s own energy policy targets and international standards.