Using a Bayesian network to clarify areas requiring research in a host–pathogen system

Bayesian network analyses can be used to interactively change the strength of effect of variables in a model to explore complex relationships in new ways. In doing so, they allow one to identify influential nodes that are not well studied empirically so that future research can be prioritized. We identified relationships in host and pathogen biology to examine disease‐driven declines of amphibians associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We constructed a Bayesian network consisting of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and environmental variables that influence disease and used them to predict host population trends. We varied the impacts of specific variables in the model to reveal factors with the most influence on host population trend. The behavior of the nodes (the way in which the variables probabilistically responded to changes in states of the parents, which are the nodes or variables that directly influenced them in the graphical model) was consistent with published results. The frog population had a 49% probability of decline when all states were set at their original values, and this probability increased when body temperatures were cold, the immune system was not suppressing infection, and the ambient environment was conducive to growth of B. dendrobatidis. These findings suggest the construction of our model reflected the complex relationships characteristic of host–pathogen interactions. Changes to climatic variables alone did not strongly influence the probability of population decline, which suggests that climate interacts with other factors such as the capacity of the frog immune system to suppress disease. Changes to the adaptive immune system and disease reservoirs had a large effect on the population trend, but there was little empirical information available for model construction. Our model inputs can be used as a base to examine other systems, and our results show that such analyses are useful tools for reviewing existing literature, identifying links poorly supported by evidence, and understanding complexities in emerging infectious‐disease systems.     

Design and risk assessment tool for vegetative treatment areas receiving agricultural wastewater: Preliminary results

Vegetative treatment areas (VTAs) are commonly being used as an alternative method of agricultural process wastewater treatment. However, it is also apparent that to completely prevent discharge of pollutants to the surrounding environment, settling of particulates and bound constituents from overland flow through VTAs is not sufficient. For effective remediation of dissolved agricultural pollutants, VTAs must infiltrate incoming wastewater. A simple water balance model for predicting VTA soil saturation and surface discharge in landscapes characterized by sloping terrain and a shallow restrictive layer is presented and discussed. The model accounts for the cumulative effect of successive rainfall events and wastewater input on soil moisture status and depth to water table. Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies ranged from 0.65 to 0.81 for modeled and observed water table elevations after calibration of saturated hydraulic conductivity. Precipitation data from relatively low, average, and high annual rainfall years were used with soil, site, and contributing area data from an example VTA for simulations and comparisons. Model sensitivity to VTA width and contributing area (i.e. barnyard, feedlot, silage bunker, etc.) curve number was also investigated. Results of this analysis indicate that VTAs should be located on steeper slopes with deeper, more-permeable soils, which effectively lowers the shallow water table. In sloping landscapes (>2%), this model provides practitioners an easy-to-use VTA design and/or risk assessment tool that is more hydrological process-based than current methods.     

Growth of northern deciduous trees under increasing atmospheric humidity: possible mechanisms behind the growth retardation

Regional Environmental Change - Increasing atmospheric humidity—a climate trend predicted for northern Europe—will reduce water flux through vegetation. Diminished transpirational water...     

Integrated assessment of a new Waste-to-Energy facility in Central Greece in the context of regional perspectives

The main aim of this study is the integrated assessment of a proposed Waste-to-Energy facility that could contribute in the Municipal Solid Waste Management system of the Region of Central Greece. In the context of this paper alternative transfer schemes for supplying the candidate facility were assessed considering local conditions and economical criteria. A mixed-integer linear programming model was applied for the determination of optimum locations of Transfer Stations for an efficient supplying chain between the waste producers and the Waste-to-Energy facility. Moreover different Regional Waste Management Scenarios were assessed against multiple criteria, via the Multi Criteria Decision Making method ELECTRE III. The chosen criteria were total cost, Biodegradable Municipal Waste diversion from landfill, energy recovery and Greenhouse Gas emissions and the analysis demonstrated that a Waste Management Scenario based on a Waste-to-Energy plant with an adjacent landfill for disposal of the residues would be the best performing option for the Region, depending however on the priorities of the decision makers. In addition the study demonstrated that efficient planning is necessary and the case of three sanitary landfills operating in parallel with the WtE plant in the study area should be avoided. Moreover alternative cases of energy recovery of the candidate Waste-to-Energy facility were evaluated against the requirements of the new European Commission Directive on waste in order for the facility to be recognized as recovery operation. The latter issue is of high significance and the decision makers in European Union countries should take it into account from now on, in order to plan and implement facilities that recover energy efficiently. Finally a sensitivity check was performed in order to evaluate the effects of increased recycling rate, on the calorific value of treated Municipal Solid Waste and the gate fee of the candidate plant and found that increased recycling efforts would not diminish the potential for incineration with energy recovery from waste and neither would have adverse impacts on the gate fee of the Waste-to-Energy plant. In general, the study highlighted the need for efficient planning in solid waste management, by taking into account multiple criteria and parameters and utilizing relevant tools and methodologies into this context.     

Modal choice for transportation of hazardous materials: the case of land modes of transport of bio-ethanol in Brazil

Performance evaluation is important in managing freight transport. The transport of certain products, especially those that are hazardous, can have significant financial and socio-environmental impacts. This article presents an application of the modal choice method (MCM) to establish an order of priority among the alternatives considered to carry a determined hazardous product. After a research of the literature on the concepts and development of the proposed method, we consulted experts about their experiences and knowledge, to determine a set of relevant attributes for the evaluation process. We then applied this method to the specific case of the Brazilian bio-ethanol industry, to demonstrate the potential of using the MCM as a tool to support make decisions. We can conclude that highway transport, though the most often used, is not the best compared to trains or pipelines (or combinations of any of the three) from a socio-environmental standpoint. Alternatives with longer pipeline segments are the most suitable to replace the current practice in environmental terms.     

CFD Investigation of Particle Deposition in a Horizontal Looped Turbulent Pipe Flow

This paper presents comprehensive 3D numerical investigations on depositions of particles flowing through a horizontal pipe loop consisting of four bends. The multiphase mixture model available in FLUENT 6.2 was used in this study. In this numerical simulation, five different particle sizes have been used as secondary phases to calculate real multiphase effect in which inter-particle interaction has been considered. The deposition of particles along the periphery of the pipe wall was investigated as a function of particle size and fluid velocity. The simulations showed that near the upstream of the bends, maximum particle concentration occurred at the bottom of the pipe. However, downstream the bends, the maximum particle concentration occurred at an angle of 60° from the bottom. The larger particles clearly showed deposition near the bottom wall except downstream. As expected, the smaller particles showed less tendency of deposition and lesser at higher velocity. This numerical investigation showed qualitative agreement with the experiments conducted by Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Melbourne team for similar conditions.     

Alternative amendment for soluble phosphorus removal from poultry litter

Background, aim, and scope  

Alum (aluminum sulfate) is the currently preferred chemical amendment for phosphorus (P) treatment in poultry litter (PL). Aluminum-based drinking-water treatment residuals (Al-WTRs) are the waste by-product of the drinking-water treatment process and have been effectively used to remove P from aqueous solutions, but their effectiveness in PL water extracts has not been studied in detail. Elevated cost associated with alum could be minimized by using the equally effective WTRs to remove soluble P from PL, and they can be obtained at a minimal cost from drinking-water treatment plants.     

Characterization of particulate matter concentrations during controlled indoor activities

Indoor sources have been identified as a major contributor to the increase of particle concentration in indoor environments. The work presented here is a study of the characteristics of particulate matter number size distribution and mass concentration under controlled indoor activities in a laboratory room. The objective is to characterize particulate matter concentrations indoors resulted under the influence of specific sources. Measurements were performed in an empty laboratory (period September–October 2006) using a GRIMM SMPS+C system (particle size range between 11.1 and 1083.3 nm), a DustTrak Aerosol Monitor (TSI) and a P-Trak Ultrafine Particle Counter (TSI). The studied indoor activities included candle burning, hot plate heating, water boiling, onion frying, vacuuming, hair drying, hair spraying, smoking and burning of incense stick. The AMANpsd computer algorithm was used to evaluate the modal structure of measured particle number size distribution data. Furthermore, the change of the particle number size distribution shape under the influence of different emission sources was studied versus time. Finally the particle emission rates were computed. High particle number concentrations were observed during smoking, onion frying, candle burning and incense stick burning. The highest particle mass concentrations were measured during smoking and hair spraying. The shift of the particle size distribution to larger diameters suggests the presence of strong coagulation effect during candle burning, incense stick burning, smoking and onion frying. The size distribution was mainly bimodal during onion frying and candle burning, whereas the size distribution remained unimodal during incense stick burning and smoking experiments.     

Urinary stones as a novel matrix for human biomonitoring of toxic and essential elements

Monitoring of body burden of toxic elements is usually based on analysis of concentration of particular elements in blood, urine and/or hair. Analysis of these matrices, however, predominantly reflects short- or medium-term exposure to trace elements or pollutants. In this work, urinary stones were investigated as a matrix for monitoring long-term exposure to toxic and essential elements. A total of 431 samples of urinary calculi were subjected to mineralogical and elemental analysis by infrared spectroscopy and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The effect of mineralogical composition of the stones and other parameters such as sex, age and geographical location on contents of trace and minor elements is presented. Our results demonstrate the applicability of such approach and confirm that the analysis of urinary calculi can be helpful in providing complementary information on human exposure to trace metals and their excretion. Analysis of whewellite stones (calcium oxalate monohydrate) with content of phosphorus <0.6 % has been proved to be a promising tool for biomonitoring of trace and minor elements.