Epidemiological assessment of food aid in the Bosnian conflict, 1994-97

Surveys in emergency settings are important for the accountability of food aid. Four household surveys conducted between 1994 and 1997 measured the performance of the Bosnia food aid programme, covering a random sample of clusters in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republica Srpska. The team calculated coverage, exclusion and inclusion errors, programme misses, and under-supply. Despite intended universal coverage from 1994-96, 15, 19, and 31 per cent, respectively, did not receive food across the three-year time frame. Households categorised as vulnerable were somewhat more likely to receive food. Programme misses were rare, whereas under-supply fell from 30 per cent in 1994 to four per cent in 1997, as the availability of other food increased. Extrapolation suggested that 61 per cent of the food distributed did not reach households. The programme introduced priority categories for targeting in 1997, yet nearly one-half of the highest priority households did not receive food. Incomplete coverage and weak targeting were related to political constraints.     

Farm cooperation to improve sustainability

In this paper, it is demonstrated that partnership arrangements between farmers might be a way to secure the economic viability of their farms as well as to increase profitability. The article discusses empirical analyses of three different forms of collaboration, with an emphasis on the environmental improvements associated with collaboration. Collaboration between a dairy farm and a crop farm is analyzed in the first case. The results show that potential gains from improved diversification and crop rotation are substantial, and even larger when the collaboration also involves machinery. The second analysis considers external integration between farrowing and finishing-pig operations. Gains from collaboration originate from biological and technical factors, such as improved growth rate of the pigs and better utilization of buildings. Finally, an evaluation of a group of collaborating crop farmers is performed. In this case, the benefits that arise are mainly due to reduced machinery costs and/or gains due to other factors, such as improved crop rotation and managerial/marketing strategies.     

Levels of dioxins and furans in urban surface soil in Trondheim, Norway

A study was conducted on polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) in surface soil in order to determine the concentration levels and possibly distinguishing between known and potential sources. The concentration levels are low (0.16-14 ng I-TEQ kg(-1)). The results show a clear pattern where the highest concentration levels were found in the oldest parts of the city. A number of sources were recognised in the soil samples through congener profiles, not all of them active, although similar congener profiles make it extremely difficult to distinguish between different sources. Estimations show that the municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) and domestic wood burning are the largest PCDD/F pollution sources within the area.     

Caesium-137 in Perch in Swedish Lakes after Chernobyl-present situation, relationships and trends

The Chernobyl accident, and the general acidification of Swedish water systems, form the base for this project. The aims of the work have been to present results on the linkage between the concentration of Cs-137 in fish, lake load of Cs and lake characteristics, to give a preliminary prognosis on the recovery, and to put the results within a wider framework of environmental hazard analysis. A broad set of data on limnology, morphometry and drainage area conditions from 41 lakes were collected during 1986 and 1987. Cs-137 was determined in 1 + perch (Cs-pe, 1-year-old perch), water, material collected by sediment traps and from surficial sediments. The main results are as follows. The average value of Cs-pe for all lakes has dropped from 9800 Bq kg(-1) (wet) to 5040 between the 2 years. Generally, the decrease is between 5 and 90%. We have tested if any factor(s) could be specifically linked to this decrease-no such factors have been found. The concentrations of Cs in sediment traps have, on average, decreased by 80%. Very high correlations exist between Cs-pe and the caesium load as determined from the sediment traps. Between 1 and 10% (mean 3.9%) of the initial fall-out deposition to the drainage area was transported from land to water during June to August 1986. The variation in initial fall-out deposition explains 65-69% of the variability in Cs-pe; the degree of explanation (= coefficient of determination, r2) increases to about 85% if one also takes into account the lake water hardness and totP. A map showing with lakes likely to have 1 + perch with higher mean Cs-concentrations than 1500 Bq kg(-1) wet is presented. Between 4000 and 7000 lakes in Sweden appear to have Cs-pe higher than 1500 Bq kg(-1) wet, figures which emphasize the serious impact of the Chernobyl accident on the environmental conditions in Sweden.     

Alternating Copolymers and Alternative Device Geometries for Organic Photovoltaics

Bathymetry, the underwater topography, is a fundamental property of oceans, seas, and lakes. As such it is important for a wide range of applications, like physical oceanography, marine geology, geophysics and biology or the administration of marine resources. The exact requirements users may have regarding bathymetric data are, however, unclear. Here, the results of a questionnaire survey and a literature review are presented, concerning the use of Baltic Sea bathymetric data in research and for societal needs. It is demonstrated that there is a great need for detailed bathymetric data. Despite the abundance of high-quality bathymetric data that are produced for safety of navigation purposes, the digital bathymetric models publicly available to date cannot satisfy this need. Our study shows that DBMs based on data collected for safety of navigation could substantially improve the base data for administrative decision making as well as the possibilities for marine research in the Baltic Sea.     

Population exposure and mortality due to regional background PM in Europe – Long-term simulations of source region and shipping contributions

This paper presents the contribution to population exposure (PE) of regional background fine primary (PPM_2.5) and secondary inorganic (SIA) particulate matter and its impact on mortality in Europe during 1997–2003 calculated with a chemistry transport model. Contributions to concentrations and PE due to emissions from shipping, Western (WEU), Eastern (EEU), and Northern Europe are compared.WEU contributes about 40% to both PPM_2.5 and SIA concentrations, whereas the EEU contribution to PPM_2.5 is much higher (43% of total PPM_2.5) than to SIA (29% of total SIA). The population weighted average concentration (PWC) of PPM_2.5 is a factor of 2.3 higher than average (non-weighted) concentrations, whereas for SIA the PWC is only a factor 1.6 higher. This is due to PPM_2.5 concentrations having larger gradients and being relatively high over densely populated areas, whereas SIA is formed outside populated areas. WEU emissions contribute relatively more than EEU to PWC and mortality due to both PPM_2.5 and SIA in Europe.The number of premature deaths in Europe is estimated to 301 000 per year due to PPM_2.5 exposure and 245 000 due to SIA, despite 3.3 times higher average SIA concentrations. This is due to population weighting and assumed (and uncertain) higher relative risk of mortality for PPM_2.5 components (2.8 times higher RR for PPM_2.5). This study indicates that it might be more efficient, for the health of the European population, to decrease primary PM emissions (especially in WEU) than to decrease precursors of SIA, but more knowledge on the toxicity of different PM constituents is needed before firm conclusions can be drawn.     

The importance of outlier detection and training set selection for reliable environmental QSAR predictions

Empirical QSAR models are only valid in the domain they were trained and validated. Application of the model to substances outside the domain of the model can lead to grossly erroneous predictions. Partial least squares (PLS) regression provides tools for prediction diagnostics that can be used to decide whether or not a substance is within the model domain, i.e. if the model prediction can be trusted. QSAR models for four different environmental end-points are used to demonstrate the importance of appropriate training set selection and how the reliability of QSAR predictions can be increased by outlier diagnostics. All models showed consistent results; test set prediction errors were very similar in magnitude to training set estimation errors when prediction outlier diagnostics were used to detect and remove outliers in the prediction data. Test set prediction errors for substances classified as outliers were much larger. The difference in the number of outliers between models with a randomly and systematically selected training illustrates well the need of representative training data.