Risk homeostasis theory, utility and accident loss in a simulated driving task

The suggestion that utility is logically necessary for behavioural adjustments to be made in response to changes in intrinsic risk is fundamental to risk homeostasis theory (RHT). However, the methodology used to investigate RHT — analysis of road traffic accidents — is ill-suited to the investigation of this assertion. The role of utility and intrinsic risk as possible determinants of behavioural compensation were therefore examined experimentally across 14 specific behaviours using the Aston Driving Simulator. RHT predicts that these two factors act in a multiplicative way to form a statistical interaction. It also predicts that the behavioural pathways through which the effect manifests itself should be reconcilable with the concept of utility. Both predictions received little support in this experiment, suggesting that utility and intrinsic risk operate as independent factors: both factors produced significant main effects across a number of behaviours. This finding, if it can be generalised, implies that, contrary to mathematically-based models of danger compensation and the traditional model of risk homeostasis, utility is not logically necessary for behavioural compensation in response to a change in intrinsic risk.     

Risk homeostasis theory: A study of intrinsic compensation

Risk homeostasis theory (RHT) suggests that changes made to the intrinsic risk of environments are negated in one of three ways: behavioural adjustments within the environment, mode migration, and avoidance of the physical risk. To date, this three-way model of RHT has little empirical support, whilst research findings on RHT have at times been diametrically opposed. A reconciliation of apparently opposing findings might be possible by suggesting that extrinsic compensation fails to restore previously existing levels of actual risk in cases where behavioural adjustments within the environment are incapable of negating intrinsic risk changes. This paper reports a study in which behavioural adjustments within the physical risk-taking environment are capable of reconciling target with actual risk. The results provide positive support for RHT in the form of overcompensation for the intrinsic risk change on specific driver behaviours.     

Testing of a GIS model ofEucalyptus Iargiflorens health on a semiarid,saline floodplain

Irrigated agriculture has resulted in substantial changes in water flows to the lower reaches of the River Murray. These changes have led to large-scale occurrences of dieback inEucalyptus largiflorens (black box) woodlands as well as increased inputs of salt to the river. Management options to address problems of this scale call for the use of spatial data sets via geographic information systems (GIS). A GIS exists for one floodplain of the River Murray at Chowilla, and a simple model predicted six health classes ofEucalyptus largiflorens based on groundwater salinity, flooding frequency, and groundwater depth.To determine the usefulness of the model for vegetation management, the quality of both the model and the GIS data sets were tested. Success of the testing procedure was judged by the degree of spatial matching between the model's predictions of health and that assessed from aerial photographs and by field truthing. Analyses at 80 sites showed that tree health was significantly greater where groundwater salinity was less than 40 dS/m or flooding occurred more frequently than 1 in 10 years or depth to groundwater exceeded 4 m. Testing of the GIS data sets found that vegetation was misclassified at 15% of sites. Association was shown between GIS-predicted values and field-truthed values of groundwater salinity but not groundwater depth. The GIS model of health is a useful starting point for future vegetation management and can be further improved by increasing the quality of the data coverages and further refining of the model to optimize parameters and thresholds.     

Vegetative delineation of coastal salt marsh boundaries

Legislation mandating the protection of wetlands, combined with current pressures to convert them to other uses, emphasize the need to determine accurately a wetland-upland boundary We investigated six methods designed to establish such a boundary based on vegetation Each method was applied to a common data set obtained from 295 quadrats along 22 transects between marsh and upland areas in 13 intertidal saline wetlands in Oregon and Washington. The multiple occurrence, joint occurrence, and five percent methods required plant species to be classified as salt marsh, upland, and non-indicator, cluster and similarity methods required no initial classification Close agreement on wetland-upland boundaries determined by the six methods suggests that preclassification of plants and collection of plant cover data may not be necessary to determine the boundary     

The ecohealth system and the community engagement movement in foundations: A case study of mutual benefits from grants funded by the United Nations Foundation

Ecohealth is a process for identifying key environmental determinants causing mortality or morbidity and combating them by mobilizing multiple social sectors. Evolving out of the concept of environmental health, ecohealth provides a framework for long‐term sustainability. The health outcomes anticipated by environmental interventions are part of a long‐term agenda and require fundamental groundwork for the growth of community‐driven development. Building long‐term sustainability requires that two key approaches be developed through ecohealth. The first is the strengthening of local community institutions, whether formal or informal. The second is building financial mechanisms that are more diversified and less reliant on a single donor. As a result, the ecohealth system provides an opportunity for foundations to empower communities, build cross‐cutting cooperation, and gain knowledge through projects. If people's environmental behaviour is to change and be sustained in the long term to produce desired health outcomes, this will require all members of society to be capable of functioning within the existing institutional infrastructure. This means that not only do formal institutions need to become more accessible but also that concepts relating to local informal institutions must be incorporated into ecohealth projects. It is imperative that we identify and understand relevant local institutions and how they can be transformed so that new environmental forms of behaviour can be sustained and result in positive health outcomes. The intersection of environmental and health concerns provides an ideal area in which the gap between government and civil society can be bridged — not only providing solutions to ecohealth concerns, but building government capacity in general and making these positive changes sustainable in the long term. This article is a case study, based on several United Nations Foundation grants. It outlines the significance of traditional community organizations, the breadth of their long‐term relations with communities, their resources, and the adoption of sustained forms of behaviour. In addition, the article highlights the role that international foundations can play in creating innovative financing mechanisms through community‐based foundations.     

A WATERSHED APPROACH TO ECOSYSTEM MONITORING IN DENALI NATIONAL PARK AND PRESERVE,ALASKA1

ABSTRACT: The National Park Service and the National Biological Service initiated research in Denali National Park and Preserve, a 2.4 million-hectare park in southcentral Alaska, to develop ecological monitoring protocols for national parks in the Arctic/Subarctic biogeographic area. We are focusing pilot studies on design questions, on scaling issues and regionalization, ecosystem structure and function, indicator selection and evaluation, and monitoring technologies. Rock Creek, a headwater stream near Denali headquarters, is the ecological scale for initial testing of a watershed ecosystem approach. Our conceptual model embraces principles of the hydrological cycle, hypotheses of global climate change, and biological interactions of organisms occupying intermediate, but poorly studied, positions in Alaskan food webs. The field approach includes hydrological and depositional considerations and a suite of integrated measures linking key aquatic and terrestrial biota, environmental variables, or defined ecological processes, in order to establish ecological conditions and detect, track, and understand mechanisms of environmental change. Our sampling activities include corresponding measures of physical, chemical, and biological attributes in four Rock Creek habitats believed characteristic of the greater system diversity of Denali. This paper gives examples of data sets, program integration and scaling, and research needs.     

Environmental education in the South Pacific: an evaluation of progress in three countries

Summary In this paper the formal environmental education being delivered in three countries in the South Pacific Region, Fiji (Melanesia), Kiribati (Micronesia) and Niue (Polynesia) is evaluated. The findings reveal that environmental education is at different stages of evolution in each of these countries. At present only Niue appears to deliver environmental education effectively when compared with models of good practice suggested in the literature. Some general recommendations are included for the improvement of environmental education in Fiji and Kiribati.Neil Taylor was until recently a Fellow in Science Education at the University of the South Pacific, PO Box 1168, Suva, Fiji. He is now a senior research student at the Centre for Mathematics and Science Education at Queensland University of Technology. Dr Teny Topalian has until very recently been the co-ordinator of the Public Marine Education Programme run as part of the Marine Studies Programme of the University of the South Pacific. She has now returned to her position as Assistant Professor in Natural Sciences and Biology at California State University, Long Beach, California, USA.     

TESTING FOR TREND IN LAKE AND GROUND WATER QUALITY TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT: The detection of gradual trends in water quality time series is increasing in importance as concern grows for diffuse sources of pollution such as acid precipitation and agricultural non-point sources. A significant body of literature has arisen dealing with trend detection in water quality variables that exhibit seasonal patterns. Much of the literature has dealt with seasonality of the first moment. However, little has been mentioned about seasonality in the variance, and its effect upon the performance of trend detection techniques. In this paper, eight methods of trend detection that arise from both the statistical literature as well as the water quality literature have been compared by means of a simulation study. Varying degrees of seasonality in both the variances and the means have been introduced into the artificial data, and the performances of these procedures are analyzed. Since the focus is on lake and ground water quality monitoring, quarterly sampling and short to moderate record lengths are examined.